Awards Oscars Contest 2020

[Riku]

Thank you all for participating in this event! This was a record year of participants and I'm glad about that! Thanks for the production and marketing team of Joker for such an excellent poster to use as banner material to lure curious people in!

But now for the most important part - winners!


On shared 3rd place (16 points) - @xi0 and @FaustXIII. Congratulations on good effort!

On shared 2nd place (18 points) - the formidable film lover @Eigengrau and none other than the mysterious legend himself @George Monkey. Again so close! Maybe next year is the year of this DiCaprio of MH. Congratulations for both for the extremely even and valiant fight for the throne.

*drumroll*

And on 1st place (18 points) - with the tie-breaker advantage from the Big 5, the many time nominee and second time winner -
Congratulations to my Swedish-dupe account @Organizized

Spoiler: All points and votes by participants

Disclaimer: I did the counting in a very tired state. If you spot any mistakes, let me know! The badge will be awarded later this month.

 

[Riku]

It was basically a road trip version of The Handmaids Tale.

Now that you say it, kinda. But with more flamethrowers and leather straps. Which kinda makes it even more awesome in my eyes.

 

[Organizized]

Welp, I sent an early ballot a few days ago but will most likely be updating it soon before the deadline. My Best Picture pick just lost a bit of momentum..

--- Double Post Merged, Jan 20, 2020, Original Post Date: Jan 19, 2020 ---

Man, statistically this year is one of the toughest Best Picture races in ages...

Once Upon has been gaining momentum at Golden Globes and Critics' Choice.
Then 1917 won the Producers Guild Award for Best Picture which VERY often lines up with the Oscar. But that film wasn't even nominated for Best Ensemble Cast at SAG Awards, so I figured Once Upon would pick up its momentum again there... But then Parasite pulls an upset and becomes the first Foreign-Language film to win that category! (Winning that category isn't a super reliable precursor though, but getting a nomination is - the last two years' winners were the first since 1994 to win without it - possibly hurting 1917's chances?

Not to mention neither 1917 or Once Upon got a nod for Editing, which only one Best Picture film (Birdman) has won without since 2020... but Birdman was filmed much like 1917, in a "long continuous shot", so...

Just putting my thoughts out there to confuse everyone.

 

[Riku]

I gotta agree, this seems to be one of the most divisive awards season in a long while. Ustegius' Stat Teaser 2.5, this also seems apparent in MH votes. there are only two categories where there is a clear forerunner, and the awards divide themselves very evenly with the biggest contenders. No clear "predicted big winner of the year".

--- Double Post Merged, Jan 20, 2020, Original Post Date: Jan 20, 2020 ---

I'm also quite annoyed by Once Upons success. I mean, I liked the film, it had a couple excellent scenes and was absolutely hilarious at times, but it wasn't a wholesome movie experience at all. Especially the writing noms feel wrong for me. I'm starting to think it is just because he is Tarantino - household name who still, when you look at the stats, has actually not that many awards apart from writing. Also The Industry has always highly likes movies that are about The Industry or film history, so Once Upon has that going on for it as well. (Former examples; Argo, Birdman, The Artist, Hugo, Adaptation)

 

[Eigengrau]

Obvious for me would be:

Original Screenplay: Tarantino

Welp, I sent an early ballot a few days ago but will most likely be updating it soon before the deadline. My Best Picture pick just lost a bit of momentum..

--- Double Post Merged, Jan 20, 2020, Original Post Date: Jan 19, 2020 ---

But then Parasite pulls an upset and becomes the first Foreign-Language film to win that category! (Winning that category isn't a super reliable precursor though, but getting a nomination is - the last two years' winners were the first since 1994 to win without it - possibly hurting 1917's chances?

Besides genuinely wishing that Parasite wins the top awards, I really feel like taking the gamble on them, even though 1917 will probably take those.

I gotta agree, this seems to be one of the most divisive awards season in a long while. Ustegius' Stat Teaser 2.5, this also seems apparent in MH votes. there are only two categories where there is a clear forerunner

Joaquin pls

I'm also quite annoyed by Once Upons success. I mean, I liked the film, it had a couple excellent scenes and was absolutely hilarious at times, but it wasn't a wholesome movie experience at all. Especially the writing noms feel wrong for me. I'm starting to think it is just because he is Tarantino - household name who still, when you look at the stats, has actually not that many awards apart from writing.

Preach

Also The Industry has always highly likes movies that are about The Industry or film history, so Once Upon has that going on for it as well. (Former examples; Argo, Birdman, The Artist, Hugo, Adaptation)

Yeeeah but let's not forget how much the academy loves WW films... dozens of them have been nominated/won the top awards I believe.
Even though this is WWI, and not WWII, I feel like they might pick it over "industry" stuff because it's more universal, I think.

 

[FetherMan]

Meh to the Oscars this years again, same routine, same show.

 

[Organizized]

Guys, the Best Picture category is gonna be a nailbiter. Some others will have some suspense as well. But I think we all know where the real suspense lies...

That's right, will mystery member @George Monkey show up out of nowhere and nab 2nd place for the fourth year in a row? Or maybe even win?

I need to know who he actually is. Is it Ust/zimb trolling us with a mystery member who's always gonna get 2nd place? Is it someone else using it as their alter prediction account? Or is it just some random dude who found our Oscar contest one year and wants to ruin our happiness by beating us despite not being an active member? Guess I'll never know.

 

[goldb]

Shit, I forgot about that guy. Every single year. We'll band together and take top 2 spots at least!

 

[Josef]

The Oscars are always the same show. However this year the films echo a more Good Old Days feel. More than ever in recent years.

 

[Organizized]

There's also no host again this year. I thought last year was kinda dull without one, but hope they found some entertaining presenters at least to do kinda what Fey and Poehler did last year.

 

[Josef]

Do you think they have tried everyone who would be a good solo presenter thus far? Like all the Late night guys and comedians?

 

[Riku]

Do you think they have tried everyone who would be a good solo presenter thus far? Like all the Late night guys and comedians?

It's more of a question of timetables TV broadcasting schedules. Leaving out hosts cuts the airing time with 40-50 minutes -> more time for ad breaks -> more money.

 

[Organizized]

Yeah I don't doubt they could've found capable hosts. But it's what Ust said. Last year they also wanted to give out awards in some categories during commercial breaks, plus only have live performances of two of the songs (in the end all the songs were performed but cut down to 90 seconds, and all the categories were televised - but only because of general outrage). Guessing it's the same deal this year.

--- Double Post Merged, Jan 24, 2020, Original Post Date: Jan 23, 2020 ---

Speaking of which, one of my favorite categories - Best Original Song - is god damn shameful this year. None of these deserve to win. Ugh.

 

[pamuchi]

Lol i forgot to leave my comment. Well I'm going all out with Parasite and Joker. Now I'm realising that I voted for Scarlett Johanson for best actress instead of Reneé lol. (I should have waited for the SAG and BAFTA awards). can I change it lol? Well all the nominees are top tier so at the end they are the goat.

I'm looking forward to watch this edition, finally a good reason (Parasite hype) to watch them. Last year was a disaster.

 

[Organizized]

can I change it lol?

You can submit again and the new ballot will be the one that counts.

That's what I'm gonna do.

 

[Eigengrau]

Do you think they have tried everyone who would be a good solo presenter thus far? Like all the Late night guys and comedians?

Louie CK would be great but umm... yeah...
I'll never forget his joke when he presented (2nd video), it was so great:

Last year they also wanted to give out awards in some categories during commercial breaks

Bruh why. I had forgotten about that.
:|

I'm looking forward to watch this edition, finally a good reason (Parasite hype) to watch them. Last year was a disaster.

Could be yet another disaster (for me) if Tarantino wins the top awards.

Parasite pls.

 

[Organizized]

So Sam Mendes won the DGA for 1917, and it also won the PGA. Likely gonna get the BAFTA as well... It's looking good for the BP Oscar right now. But Parasite has such massive widespread appeal in Hollywood like no other foreign film ever had (even Roma, which was a frontrunner but lost much due to the Netflix stigma I think, as well as being too "artsy") and is riding a wave of support from the whole industry (winning with the Editors and Actors Guilds and being top 2 frontrunner with the Directors and Actors).

Have to consider that Best Picture is voted by preferential ballot and I do think almost all branches of the Academy will consider Parasite top 3 material at least. It really could pull off an upset. And I really want it to..!

 

[Evil3ye]

Is it the first year with so many straight-to-Netflix entries as nominees?

 

[Organizized]

Is it the first year with so many straight-to-Netflix entries as nominees?

I think so. Last year Roma was the first streaming-service film to get a bunch of nominations (and wins) and that sort of opened the door for others this year I think, removed the stigma and prejudice against streaming amongst the academy at least a bit.

 

[Riku]

Yup, they've been sneaking in with their documentary productions since 2015, and last year with Roma finally broke thorough on the drama side as well. They've pretty much doubled their noms every year since 2015.

--- Double Post Merged, Jan 26, 2020, Original Post Date: Jan 26, 2020 ---

Ustegius' Stat Teasers part 3:

According to majority MH users this far, the film to receive most Oscars, is Joker

 

[Organizized]

Yeah, that's not gonna happen.

--- Double Post Merged, Jan 26, 2020, Original Post Date: Jan 26, 2020 ---

I mean, I really don't hope so. And don't think so either. I'll give it Best Actor and Best Score, but that's it.

--- Double Post Merged, Jan 28, 2020 ---

Time to predict this shiznit.

I feel the (more or less) tough categories this time are :

Best Picture - 1917 or Parasite? Or possibly Once Upon still has a shot?

Best Original Screenplay - I think this is the biggest award Once Upon is gonna get, but I really hope I'm wrong and that Parasite is closer on its heels than I think)

Best Adapted Screenplay - should be Little Women, but I think you can't count out The Irishman... maybe Jojo Rabbit if voters liked that film and want to reward it in some category, but dunno how the consensus is there..

Best Visual Effects - Avengers: Endgame? 1917? Somehow The Irishman is a popular pick here, but the visual effects there was one of the worst things about the film imo so Isincerely hope not.. Avengers films have been nominated time and again but never seem to get that win...

Best Original Song - This category is so meh this year it's also hard to predict. Rocketman has momentum from winning other awards, but this could also be where they make a statement and vote for the Harriet song (as Oscarssowhite-backlash). Or it'll go to Frozen II because y'know, Disney. Dunno if it missing out on an Animated Film nod is gonna hurt it or help it here though.

Best Editing - Parasite surprisingly won the Editors' Guild award. The Irishman is a popular pick for making 3,5 hours - some say - not feel long or drawn-out at all. (I disagree.)
Ford v Ferrari seems to be the frontrunner because of its 'flashy' editing, but that was also the case last year with Vice and it lost utterly to the worst edited film in the category (BoRhap)... so who the heck knows?

Best Documentary - This is tough simply because I haven't seen any of the films. But American Factory and Honeyland seem to be the ones going head-to-head here. It's a 50/50 shot for me I guess.

The rest seem pretty straight-forward, I think. Gonna make a full "Will/Could/Should win"-list later.