Movies Oscar's Contest 2022

[Riku]

Trying to forget the on-stage drama and focus the drama on the screen, let's just say that now a lot of people will learn after googling what CODA stands for, and that is a good thing. A safe film might have won the biggest award, but one with good intentions and warm heart. I'm very tired, and I really hope I counted these right. I'll link the sheet at the end of the post, so anyone can re-check.

Now let's see who won our Oscar!

At 3rd place with 17 points - was me, Riku.

At shared 2nd place with 18 points are @Organizized @goldb and @PhillyG ​

Congratulations, well done, but just not quite well enough. The second place could have gone to user @phipps13 with 19 points, but since that nick doesn't exist, too bad. (Contact me, Riku, if you have have misspelt your nick or something and I just didn't find it)

But now a reveal, that for me is the real best part of this years Oscars. After so many close calls this mysterious DiCaprio of Mangahelpers finally takes the prize that is much deserved and has been a long time coming. Dear people,

The 1st place with 20 points goes to the one and only, the legend @George Monkey


Congratulations!

​

The point score is shared with user @Dnanni1, but since that is once again a non-nick, it is ignore (contact me, Riku, if there has been a mistake of some sorts)

All scores​

 

[Organizized]

I can totally see it being the "reward the overdue auteur" pick for PTA though, a la Spike Lee for BlackKklansman. Very well respected and considered overdue for a win, but doesn't really have a shot in the Director or Picture categories. I do think it is between Belfast and Licorice Pizza. Don't Look Up just seems like such a non-Academy-ish choice.

But if there is any justice in the world, those three will split the votes and The Worst Person in the World wins it, because it is easily the best Screenplay of the bunch imho.

 

[Faust]

Licorice Pizza is a way better Punch Drunk Love.

Still need to watch a bunch, before I send my predictions.

--- Double Post Merged, Mar 23, 2022, Original Post Date: Mar 23, 2022 ---

Belfast is a Northern Irish happier version of Roma.

 

[Eigengrau]

Haven't submitted it just yet but I believe I've got my final picks already.

Some stuff I'd like to mention:

1) I really struggled to pick Flee in any of the 3 categories it's in.
Best International Film? Drive My Car.
Best Animated Fim? Encanto (I'm guessing it's the likely choice, haven't seen it).
I picked Flee for Best Documentary but something tells me Summer of Soul might have a better chance.

2) I'm really at a loss when it comes to Best Supporting Actor/Actress.
Went with Jesse Plemons and Jessie Buckley even though I haven't seen the films.
I know the Belfast nominees are a definite "no" from me, and Being The Ricardos was critically panned (from what I saw) so I doubt Simmons would win.

3) Saw The Tragedy of Macbeth today, and while there was some stuff holding me back from fully enjoying it, I'll pick Denzel as Lead Actor (also the only nominee that I've seen this year) as well as pick it for Best Cinematography (again, it wasn't perfect or anything but for this one I'll pick it over Dune, sorry).

 

[Faust]

In Licorice Pizza:

The male protagonist's name is
and his brother's name is

Coincidence? Conspiracy?

​

 

[Organizized]

I'm gonna submit a completely revised ballot, lol. Changing my pick for like half the categories, gonna not go with the safe picks so much, be a little riskier.

I'm off work on Monday too so gonna stay up and watch.

 

[George Monkey]

I have entered my predictions and they are MonkeyFresh.

 

[Riku]

I have entered my predictions and they are MonkeyFresh.

Awesome. This doesn't feel right without you.

 

[Organizized]

Ugggggh, I feel like I might as well flip a coin for the Song, Editing and Screenplay categories. Much less predictable this year. Song especially is like 50/50 between No Time to Die and Encanto for me and the only reasonI haven't resubmitted yet.

--- Double Post Merged, Mar 25, 2022, Original Post Date: Mar 25, 2022 ---

George Monkey is overdue for an Oscar, this is his year!

--- Double Post Merged, Mar 26, 2022 ---

Okay, sent my final picks. Don't feel great about it. Went risky in some categories but probably not gonna be the right ones, lol.

Watched quite a lot of the films this year.

• Flugt (Flee) – 9/10
• Summer of Soul (...Or, When The Couldn't Be Televised) – 9/10
• Drive My Car – 8,5/10
• The Worst Person in the World – 8/10
• CODA – 8/10
• tick, tick... Boom! – 8/10
• The Power of the Dog – 8/10
• The Lost Daughter – 8/10
• Encanto – 8/10
• Belfast – 7,5/10
• King Richard – 7,5/10
• Parallel Mothers – 7,5/10**
• Dune – 7/10
• The Tragedy of MacBeth – 7/10
• Licorice Pizza – 6,5/10
• Don't Look Up – 6,5/10
• Nightmare Alley – 6,5/10

Gonna watch Parallel Mothers(**edited) tonight, then maybe cram in one last film before the show starts tomorrow.

Overall I'm predicting (number of awards won per film):
Dune - 5
CODA - 3
King Richard - 2
The Power of the Dog - 1
Drive My Car - 1
The Eyes of Tammy Faye - 1
Cruella - 1
Belfast - 1
West Side Story - 1
Encanto - 1
Parallel Mothers - 1
No Time to Die - 1
Summer of Soul - 1

But I realize this would be spreading the wealth quite a bit so I assume one or two of the Dune picks are gonna go elsewhere, and some categories are really wide open and could go any which way. Don't Look Up might get Editing or Screenplay but I don't wanna put that energy into the universe by predicting it.

 

[Faust]

Sent my first set of predictions. But now I wanna send another one. lol

 

[Riku]

Sorry, I've been a bit busy that last few days. Updated the participant list and will start tag spamming now.

@Brandish μ @goldb @Gajeel @Kiki @desin24

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@Jdmp53 @Evil3ye @Battou

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@BluePegasus @Ame-san @pamuchi @Seraph

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@Reebi @Stormsfury @kira @Jun @lakhan220

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@RyBo @Nii @Josef

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@FetherMan @Jammin @kkck @MiyamotoMusashi @Wowzers

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@gnut @Notice me Escanor senpai @Sanity Check

With that, I think I've tagged previous participants and Movie Thread visitors. Maybe some extras next.

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@Sakura Taichou @SirSamuel016 @Imperium @Raven @Charlie

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@GrySun @Farfalla @Hardy @James Rye @Asako

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That's all I can think of know. Let me know if you think I missed someone, or spread the word. Roughly 15 HOURS left.

--- Double Post Merged, Mar 27, 2022 ---

Oh, also @M3J

--- Double Post Merged, Mar 27, 2022 ---

I honest to god though it was Saturday and there would be more time, but it's already Sunday and the gala is next night. Even almost forgot to vote myself.

 

[goldb]

Holy shit, the week has gone by so quickly. Alright, I'll be voting later in the afternoon I guess. I really haven't had to check out very much :/

 

[Brandish μ]

I won't be able to participate sry, seen too few films for the year.

 

[Riku]

Holy shit, the week has gone by so quickly. Alright, I'll be voting later in the afternoon I guess. I really haven't had to check out very much :/

The same. I actually thought I have some time to promote this, and then I was like, wtf, it's actually like half a day away. Crazy few weeks.

I won't be able to participate sry, seen too few films for the year.

You can always just try blind guessing. Nobody is judging.

--- Double Post Merged, Mar 27, 2022, Original Post Date: Mar 27, 2022 ---

Also @Demonspeed

Hurry, not a long left.

 

[Evil3ye]

Literally didn't watch a single film last year, so I'll rate them by their names, as usual

 

[goldb]

Okay, I've submitted mine and there were a lot of guessing there. So we'll see. I don't think I'll be up for whole thing but I'll probably check in around 3-4am when I wake up to pee.

 

[Riku]

I'll try to watch the whole thing, but we'll see. I have work tomorrow evening, so I might give up.

But just in case, I just prepared our sofa bed, got some energy drinks and snacks and am ready to go as if I was again a high schooler with nothing better to do on a sunday-monday night.

--- Double Post Merged, Mar 28, 2022, Original Post Date: Mar 27, 2022 ---

Poll is closed.

--- Double Post Merged, Mar 28, 2022 ---

Agh, accidentally lost my initial vote count. Might take some time before I can get our vote done, as I'd also like to follow the gala instead of just counting

 

[Organizized]

Three for three so far.

Realized I didn't post my list earlier.


Actually a lot of really tough calls this year… the Screenplay categories, Song and Editing in particular. Anyway, here are my favs and predictions.

Spoiler: My picks and predictions

Best Picture

Will win: CODA
Could win: The Power of the Dog
Should win: CODA is still my favorite probably, but Drive My Car and The Power of the Dog are both amazing so I'd be fine with them as well.

CODA has been riding a kind of light version of the “Parasite wave” the last few weeks, winning award after award and garnering massive support throughout the awards season, and becoming the film TPOTD opposers rally behind as their champion. It’s a very non-Oscary film, to me, and I’m sure people would be confused if they watched it knowing it’s a Best Picture winner… but as someone who watched it without any expectations, it really did have an impact on me so I’d be happy to see it come out on top.


Best Director

Will win: Jane Campion
Could win: Steven Spielberg
Should win: Jane Campion

Pretty much a lock, unless her misguided comments/comparison about the Williams sisters hurts her chances.


Best Original Screenplay

Will win: Belfast
Could win: This category seems wide open.
Should win: The Worst Person in the World

I wasn’t a fan of Licorice Pizza, but I can see it being the “let’s honor the auteur with a Screenplay Award” pick, much like Spike Lee got for BlackKklansman, especially since Paul Thomas Anderson is viewed as very much overdue for an Oscar as well. The film doesn’t stand a chance in Director or Picture so I think he could get it here.
However, I realized that's also the case for Branagh. And Belfast seems to be the more liked film out of the two, and I think this is the only category it still has a shot at winning, so while I initially thought LP will take this, I'm switching to Belfast.
(Actually, as I'm typing this my gut says those might split the vote and Don't Look Up might be the runaway winner. I hope not though.)
But if there’s any justice at all it should go to The Worst Person in the World.


Best Adapted Screenplay

Will win: CODA
Could win: The Power of the Dog
Should win: Drive My Car

Just like in the Best Picture category, I think CODA might take this based on the support it’s garnered over the last few weeks. Even more likely it wins here. But it's a tight race I think.


Best Actress

Will win: Penelope Cruz
Could win: Jessica Chastain
Should win: Penelope Cruz or Olivia Colman

Going with my gut here. Chastain has won literally every other award this season and on paper she's a lock for winning.. but her film is considered one of the worst that got nominated this year overall. I think Cruz will pull off a surprise win here like Colman did over Glenn Close a couple years ago.


Best Actor

Will win: Will Smith
Could win: Benedict Cumberbatch
Should win: Andrew Garfield

My personal fav is Garfield in tick, tick… Boom!, but I think it's really between Smith and - less likely - Cumberbatch here. Smith won pretty much every award leading up to the Oscars and is the logical prediction. Cumberbatch could still win in an “Olivia Colman vs. Glenn Close” type situation, where voters think everyone else will vote for Smith so they go for their other favorite. Although the difference is, 'The Wife' was only nominated for Actress and likely skipped by many, whilst King Richard has seven noms including Best Picture. BUT, Cumberbatch is in the most nominated film, the frontrunner for Best Picture etc, which is not to be underestimated.

So in the end, though many think this is a definite lock for Will, I've got him taking this at like 75% certainty. (And it's honestly well deserved if he does.)


Best Supporting Actress

Will win: Ariana DeBose
Could win: Kirsten Dunst
Should win: Haven’t seen West Side Story, so I’ll say Aunjanue Ellis. Not a ton of screen time for her in King Richard, but whenever she’s in a scene she really adds weight to it. Also one of those cases where I feel the lead (Smith) would not have been as impactful without what Ellis specifically brought to their scenes.


Best Supporting Actor

Will win: Troy Kotsur
Could win: Kodi Smit-McPhee
Should win: Troy Kotsur

This originally seemed like it would go to Kodi, and I suppose it still could, but Kotsur has been on a spree, winning SAG, BAFTA and Critics Choice, so I think he’ll keep his streak going.


Best Cinematography

Will win: Dune
Could win: The Power of the Dog
Should win: Rooting for Dog, but Dune was great in this department. I think The Tragedy of MacBeth deserves a shout as well.


Best Animated Feature

Will win: Encanto
Could win: Mitchells vs. The Machines, maybe Flee?
Should win: Mitchells vs. The Machines or Flee

Talked about this earlier in the thread. I still think Encanto is taking it in the end, but it’s definitely not a lock.


Best Documentary Feature

Will win: Summer of Soul
Could win: Flee
Should win: Flee

Summer of Soul was an amazing music and culture documentary and I’ll watch it repeatedly in the future, I’m sure… but Flee is such a well-told true story, on an ever relevant subject. It's heartbreaking and eye opening and infuriating. One of those films I'll tell everyone to see. I'd be really happy to see Summer of Soul winning, but my personal pick would be Flee.


Best International Feature

Will win: Drive My Car
Could win: The Worst Person in the World / Flee?
Should win: Either of those three would be deserving. All three probably the best out of the whole Oscars roster imo.


Best Costume Design

Will win: Cruella
Could win: West Side Story
Should win: Dune

Idk, haven't seen most here so I'm predicting the movie about costume making taking this. Usually a safe bet.


Best Hair/Make-Up

Will win: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Could win: Dune
Should win: ?


Best Editing

Will win: Dune
Could win: This category is also wide open.
Should win: tick, tick… Boom!

I might actually switch to tick, tick… Boom! or King Richard here, as they're much more flashy in their editing and that's usually what people vote for. "Most" as opposed to "best" (I do think TTB is the best one as well, though). Those two won the ACE awards too. Yet Dune seems like the somewhat safe pick just because it's predicted to sweep most, if not all of the tech categories, and it's a Best Picture and Sound nominee…


Best Sound

Will win: Dune
Could win: West Side Story
Should win: Dune


Best Production Design

Will win: Dune
Could win: Nightmare Alley, maybe West Side Story
Should win: Nightmare Alley

Nightmare Alley's production design and cinematography was my main takeaway from it. Visually great. Again, Dune is the safe pick since it'll likely sweep the techs but I might switch to Nightmare Alley anyway…


Best Score

Will win: Dune
Could win: The Power of the Dog
Should win: The Power of the Dog


Best Song

Will win: ‘Dos Oruguitas’ (Encanto) or ‘No Time To Die’
Could win: ‘No Time To Die’ or ‘Dos Oruguitas’
Should win: I’d be happy with either, but rooting for Lin-Manuel Miranda to complete his EGOT.


Best Visual Effects

Will win: Dune
Could win: Spider-Man: No Way Home (unlikely)
Should win: Dune

--- Double Post Merged, Mar 28, 2022, Original Post Date: Mar 28, 2022 ---

Five for five now, including the short!

 

[Riku]

No big surprises here. Took a risk with picking Mitchells myself. Didn't pay off.

 

[Organizized]

Glad I switched back to Dune in Cinematography. Would've loved to see Ari Wegner win but this was pretty much expected after all.

 

[Faust]

Where can I watch the ceremony online?

--- Double Post Merged, Mar 28, 2022, Original Post Date: Mar 28, 2022 ---

Watch The Oscars 2024 Live Stream Online | 96th Academy Awards

Stream The Oscars 2024 online LIVE on Sunday, March 10th. Watch red carpet coverage and see Oscar winners take home the coveted statuette.

abc.com

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twitch.tv/mrgaming145

Found a stream on Twitch!