Mag Talk Weekly Shonen Jump [2011] - Discussion and TOC Talk - Part 1

[Rejuvenation]

lol talk about being obstinate.

I don't see the point in crusading about something that ultimately doesn't change much of anything from an observational standpoint and has been backed up with insider statements. All that is being said that after a certain threshold gets reached, a series is more or less on its own to survive in Jump unless the editors try to force it down their readers' throats. Which has been proven true again and again. Being so bothered by people saying that threshold is "8 weeks" is silly. There is stuff that died before 8 weeks. Chagecha for instance. But that doesn't change the fact that more often than not, once a certain threshold gets hit we more or less see the same pattern occurring several times a year. Which more or less starts happening close to when a series has been in the magazine around 8 weeks.

Debating about if its "exactly" 8 weeks or "around" 8 weeks or "nothing happens close to 8 weeks" is trivial and comes off as horribly nitpicky for no reason.

 

[UHU]

Only that we understand each other. Your point is that because for example chapter 7, 8, 9 of Hoop Men were ranked identically that the 8 chapter rule is “proven” wrong?
But I ask you how does it contradict the 8 week rule?? The rule says that the Editor places the chapter where he sees it fit during the first eight weeks. Can you tell me one good reason why he should place a chapter in the middle or higher when the first three questionary results are really bad for said series??? It would be a waste to give it a higher rank when the series will clearly die.
Or on the contrary, why not give a series which does well in the first 3 questionary results color pages and a higher rank??

I'm glad that you understand each other. Clearly, I don't understand you.

You are telling me that as soon as the votes results are in, it's not random anymore, which is proven by bad ranking when the new series fails, and by a higher rank when it succeeds. I agree with that. But it negates that 8 weeks rule.

If editors have the votes' results in less than 8 weeks, why should they wait until the ninth week to adapt the table of content or the way they place series?

This is why people say that the ranking of the first 7 chapters CAN give an indication about the survival of a series BUT it is random until the 8th chapter.

How could it give indication if it's random? That doesn't make any sense.

lDebating about if its "exactly" 8 weeks or "around" 8 weeks or "nothing happens close to 8 weeks" is trivial and comes off as horribly nitpicky for no reason.

I'm sorry if you don't enjoy this conversation, but seeing how folks here were so serious about this stuff (with things like "pure ranking"), I just wanted to correct some mistakes.

 

[Kaiten]

There is stuff that died before 8 weeks. Chagecha for instance.

Chagecha actually lasted exactly eight chapters. Anything less and there would not have been enough pages for a tankobon.

---------- Post added at 02:05 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:02 PM ----------

Kanou's new series is scanlated! The first two chapters were good but not great, there is a lot of potential though. The premise is interesting, if the characters end up being interesting enough this could be a really fun series.

 

[Jaymie]

If editors have the votes' results in less than 8 weeks, why should they wait until the ninth week to adapt the table of content or the way they place series?

To give new series eight weeks before the hourglass of death begins. The results are delayed eight weeks so that new series have a chance to get a volume's worth of material in good spots in the magazine for the readers to get a taste of before they're banished to the back of the magazine.

It would be awful for a new series' second chapter to be in last place in the TOC because the first chapter did poorly. If it didn't stand a chance before, the fact that hardly anyone will read the second chapter would guarantee that it would get cut.

 

[Rejuvenation]

Chagecha actually lasted exactly eight chapters. Anything less and there would not have been enough pages for a tankobon.

I guess I should modify my statement a bit then and say the decision to kill it clearly came before 8 weeks had passed. But you are indeed correct about that.

 

[Akainu]

I think it's an interesting and no less refreshing point UHU makes - and brings facts for.

What it does not do is negate that after enough material for a tank is out, the manga is in the wilderness called JUMP and has to prove its worth.
It much more tells us - or well at least that's my opinion on that - tells us that a really bad rating has such an influence on the editors that it will shine through their decision in putting it down early on. maybe that's trying to warn the fans that it needs more votes? I don't know about their motivation, but it surely is influenced and NOT as black and white as it often comes off.

 

[Kaiten]

Jump has never hidden that reader feedback is the most important metric used to determine whether a series remains in the magazine. Series that poll poorly can be canceled before the first tankobon is even released. Generally a new series has one business quarter (12-15 issues) to prove it has fan support. Shueisha is proud of this, promoting the fact that what the readers think actually matters. The reality is that Jump maintains a ruthless business model, they want to be sure that any weak links are removed. All magazines poll their readers and include feedback postcards. But none put as much stock in them as Jump. The only aspect they are not totally open about is how votes are weighted. It could well be that everyone's vote is counted equally. Or it could be that Jump weights vote so that they are sure that the majority of series appeal to their core audience (boys, 12-15).

Only series with released tankobon can be used in shades of gray. Series that drop to the bottom five immediately and stay there are canceled quickly, without fail. But once volumes are released, money is involved and all bets are off. For series with enough volumes, if they turn a profit, but can't get out of the bottom five, Shueisha may look into alternatives. To Love Ru was moved to SQ, JoJo's to Ultra Jump, Captain Tsubasa to Young Jump, etc. Money talks and bull shit walks: if a series sells more than 500,000 copies per volume it's going to be published somewhere. Even series that sell more moderately can extend there life a bit. Psyren polled poorly for ages but had moderate enough sales that it lasted three years. Wasn't worth moving to another magazine, but it still managed to last over a year, a huge accomplishment in Jump.

 

[Nayrael]

I'm sorry if you don't enjoy this conversation, but seeing how folks here were so serious about this stuff (with things like "pure ranking"), I just wanted to correct some mistakes.

Seriously, you are in a tread created to discuss ranking based on what we see in a ToC... of course we are serious to some extent... tough ironically, people who challenge the current set of rules are more serious then those who accept it -_-

We don't take Manga's that have Color Page's in the issue because it is obvious that they are not ranked equally: a Manga can't have a chapter at the bottom for weeks, then have it near the top and for next few weeks have it at bottom again. That makes it obvious that these chapters are not ranked.

There has been a lot of arguments about Kochikame: some say it is not even ranked while some say it is. But since it will obviously never be forced into cancellation, it is not considered ranked, even if it is actually ranked.
Same could be said by best-sellers (like OP, Bleach, Naruto...) I guess but people are actually interested in how well they are doing so we put them in. Also, bad ranking may explain some events in story to some more hard-core fans of those Manga's because it is possible for Editorial Department to make the Mangaka end the arc, change this, change that, etc. For that reason, we consider it ranked.

As far as 8 chapters issue goes... honestly, you are far, far more serious about this. 8 chapters or around is when a series usually starts to get ranked. It is also possible for some series to start getting ranked sooner or later: the number may not be equal for every Manga. Hell, if it is the same, the Editorial Department can suddenly change the number... and then change it again later.
The only thing we know is that number is higher then 2 (because when readers have their issue in hands, next issue and its Toc must be finished... when votes are counted, another issue must be finished by then).
However, for a tread where ratings are discussed, we need an approximate number as we are not serious enough to check for every Manga when it should be considered ranked. And for various reasons, 8 is the number we use. Unless there is a VERY GOOD reason to change it, it should stay like that to make it simpler.

Can the Editorial Department not show actual ranking? Of course it can. ToC is just based upon it. However we can't know when they change the ranking nor how much they change the ranking. So since we can't predict it, we don't even consider that element.

In summary, this tread exists to discuss approximate ranking based on ToC. The current set of rules gives us good enough approximate picture of the rankings so we accept them. This tread is there to make it easier for us to predict future of Manga we read (not just based on ToC, but also Tankobon sales, current issues, state of the magazine, etc.) and as long as our predictions aren't terribly wrong more often then almost correct, there is no reason for change.

 

[Finestela]

UHU, I was expecting something that's going to blow everyone away, but instead you quoted from the SBS...

Just so you know, what Oda said is EXACTLY THE SAME as the "accepted fact" in the list that's been around for a lot of years now:

台割り(掲載順)は8週毎にアンケート結果＋αから決定される
＋αは商業的思惑や漫画家のスケジュールとかいろいろ
ただし掲載漫画のページ数が変わる場合や編集の推し等で、
印刷直前まで掲載順の入れ替えが行われる可能性がある(いわゆるシャッフル)
その場合1・2号先まで待つと元の位置に戻ったりする

"Pushing" from the editors is specifically written in there, along with commercial considerations, artist scheduling, change in number of pages, etc.

ToC is used as rankings here because unless you're a mind reader, you have no way in knowing which ones are being pushed and which ones are not. Unless in certain cases, such as well known fact on the artist barely/not making the deadline (e.g. Hunter, Shaman King, ToLoveRu), there is no reason to assume otherwise.

The "official" ranking for a new series starts on Chapter 9, but if it's doing badly, editors will almost always place it near the back as sort of a reminder for the loyal readers, as early as Chapter 5 or 6. Therefore, while the pre-ch.9 ToC position isn't its true ranking, it can still be used as something to determine whether a new series is doing "ok" or "poorly".

 

[xi0]

There is also the matter of when a series is an obvious hit (by popularity or among the editorial staff), and gets a third color page somewhere after chapter 8. I would be almost 100% certain that no series gets a third one prior to chapter 8, unless of course it's from a popular, returning author, but don't quote me on that.

 

[Koen]

There is also the matter of when a series is an obvious hit (by popularity or among the editorial staff), and gets a third color page somewhere after chapter 8. I would be almost 100% certain that no series gets a third one prior to chapter 8, unless of course it's from a popular, returning author, but don't quote me on that.

Sorry got to quote you on that

AND gets cancelled afterwards when it is near 20-30 chapters. *cough* double arts *cough* The series was pimped and it had proven that right since its ratings were initially very good. It dropped afterwards.

Imo, whatever the editors decide to do. On the long term, it is still readers who kill or let a series live

 

[xi0]

Well I meant hit as in popularity with readers at the very least. But yeah, that doesn't necessarily imply it having staying power.

 

[Asgaroth]

oh come on... this discussion is boring and why must everyone single one of you write 5000words to explain the same to just one guy? be serious...

what do you think about ST&RS ch2?

Spoiler

Didn't like the second one, to much less important stuff at the beginning. wasted most of the 23 pages. like the ending, thought a bit about enigma, because of this test attitude with special powers =)

Moderator Notice:
Please discuss the ST&RS chapter here next time, thanks.~ Asarii

 

[Maxy Barnard]

goodness yes can we just get back to discussing the TOC and the quality of the series within? Cause c'mon, as much as we can debate and um and ah, our system of understanding for the TOC is long-running, and has our basis in stuff, as proven. We know this. So let's talk about something fun like HOW MUCH I HOPE ST&RS DOES WELL!

Both St&rs and Kano's new series have potential, with one throwing a ton of info at you CONSTANTLY (Which I like but is polarising) and the other being... well, a Kano series, so... fanservice and solid gags alongside incredibly light drama.

I wouldn't expect long runs out of either at present, but if they built upon themselves well from here... ooh the mind boggles

 

[Kaiten]

Kanou's new series is okay, it only has as much potential as the leads. If they prove to be interesting, it will be a good series. It's still to early to say if either will be more than stock RomCom characters, but I think there is some potential. It will at least be worth reading the first volume. St&rs has really connected with me. I love the premise, love the characters and love the writing. I thought chapter two was really creative. The mangaka thankfully dispensed with the intro's after one chapter and moved right into the plot. Well done.

Hard to predict how either will poll. Series can't be discounted because they are not action, fans have shown they will vote for other genres time and again. Look at 2007, only three series lasted a year: Samurai Usagi, Yusha Gaku, and Sket Dance . Not one was typical, Jump action. The only genre that seems to be doomed from the start is sports. It would not surprise me if St&rs and Harisugawa debuted in the middle.

---------- Post added at 02:01 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:38 PM ----------

Sorry got to quote you on that

AND gets cancelled afterwards when it is near 20-30 chapters. *cough* double arts *cough* The series was pimped and it had proven that right since its ratings were initially very good. It dropped afterwards.

Imo, whatever the editors decide to do. On the long term, it is still readers who kill or let a series live

I'm not sure if Double Arts was pimped. In 2008-2009 giving a series extra color early seemed to be standard procedure, unless a series debuted in the bottom five. Mago had it's third color page at chapter eight, Double Arts at seven, Toriko at six, Bakuman at eleven, Kuroko at chapter nine, Bokkesan at seven, Beelzebub at nine, Ane Doki at nine. They seemed to drop this practice by the middle of 2009 though. But I guess anything that started after Beelzebub was either canceled early or got off to a rocky start (Shinigami and Medaka Box).

 

[k-dom]

btw how come there has been this inflation on the color page? 10 years ago it was more one or zero central color in addition to the front cover, now we can get 3 of them regularly

 

[SSJWill4]

I'm not sure if Double Arts was pimped. In 2008-2009 giving a series extra color early seemed to be standard procedure, unless a series debuted in the bottom five. Mago had it's third color page at chapter eight, Double Arts at seven, Toriko at six, Bakuman at eleven, Kuroko at chapter nine, Bokkesan at seven, Beelzebub at nine, Ane Doki at nine. They seemed to drop this practice by the middle of 2009 though. But I guess anything that started after Beelzebub was either canceled early or got off to a rocky start (Shinigami and Medaka Box).

Double Arts did get a second cover for it's 13th chapter. The only other series to get another cover so quickly in recent memory was Toriko for its 12th chapter, so I'd say it was pimped a little bit more than most new series. Either way it's a shame that it's gone.

 

[Jaymie]

A second cover = crazy pimpin'. Most series don't even get another cover until their one-year anniversary.

Double Arts had everything going for it . Thinking about that series makes me so sad.

 

[Asarii]

oh come on... this discussion is boring and why must everyone single one of you write 5000words to explain the same to just one guy? be serious...

goodness yes can we just get back to discussing the TOC and the quality of the series within? Cause c'mon, as much as we can debate and um and ah, our system of understanding for the TOC is long-running, and has our basis in stuff, as proven. We know this. So let's talk about something fun like HOW MUCH I HOPE ST&RS DOES WELL!

Members are free to discuss whatever they like in this thread as long as it relates to the topic, which it did. Even though the majority of us know how the rankings work, there will always be those who aren't sure or have doubts.

---

I love the concepts of ST&RS, but it's still too early for me to decide if this will be a long-term thing personally and publicly (?). Jump readers are fickle so it's unpredictable if they would take a liking to it. (Think: Yotsuya Senpai) I hope they'll like it though!

 

[murtas]

I think stars will rank pretty good with a start like this, i don't know where it will go, so the staying power is still unknown!