Mag Talk Weekly Shonen Jump [2011] - Discussion and TOC Talk - Part 1

[UHU]

The Editors have the Rankings already after 2-3 weeks. When a series clearly fails they are going to place it already near the Bottom and when a series doesn’t fail they are going to place it near the top. BUT this isn’t a rule because it happened more than once that a series was “positioned” well during the 7 weeks and then suddenly plumed. I don’t remember which series exactly but someone who does do statics please show him.

Someone can show me a case where it does happen, but I can show you many cases where that doesn't happen in that way. So we cannot draw such conclusions.

Bleach is one of the most popular Mangas they have. Where is it now?

I doubt that Bleach is one of their most popular mangas right now.

Then there is a space about 2-4 series, second color, space about 2-5, third color page, space and sometimes a fourth color page.

Here you acknowledge that it's not fixed.

Why giving it a color page and then give it back to the bottom when you want to promote it?

Temporary editorial decisions, as Oda said it.

I think Magos second season started 3 weeks ago. It got a color page to announce it and where was it the past 2 weeks?

I think it shows us that Mago may be dead meat for the editorial department, and that they don't even want to promote it anymore. But we'll see.

Sometimes a series was ranked really high in the TOC even though nothing exiting happened this week BUT after looking back 8 weeks, something really amazing happened 8 weeks ago
I came to the conclusion even though it wasn’t always 100% accurate it did give a pretty good picture about how the result of the votes were 8 weeks ago
Let’s just watch Bleach. According to Bleach fans the last few chapters were really amazing BUT it did sink continually week after week. It should start to rise soon if those people were right and in 8 weeks it should be especially high because of the lead color if you can trust Bakuman

That's a wrong conclusion. There are cases where nothing amazing happened 8 weeks ago, where something good happened 10 or 6 weeks before, etc. Actually, the first error is to assume that one's opinion on a chapter is shared by Japanese voters. We may not think the same thing as them on the same chapters or arc.

Yes an Anime does push also votes. A bigger Audience starts to follow the series weekly and the votes get higher, therefore the rank gets higher and color pages to promote it further.

Sket Dance got higher when the anime was announced, 6 months before it actually started. Same thing for Bakuman, even if the arc was bad around that time (in my opinion). Same thing for Mago for the first season.

There are objective, observable reasons to believe there is an eight issue delay while doubt has always been fueled by nothing more than speculation.

It is actually quite the contrary. This "8 week" rule comes from speculation, and there is nothing objective to prove it.

Bakuman described the process of building the TOC in detail

Bakuman shows how the real rankings are made, the one we never get. As for the TOC, I don't think its process has been shown in detail. Oda gives us a different story for the TOC, and he's a confirmed insider, not just someone who got its copy of Jump earlier than other people.

Chart placement for new series also confirm an eight week delay.

Actually, no. I already gave you some examples.

New series have a relatively fixed place in the middle of the magazine for eight issues. Take Ikkyuu as an example. All new series, except short gag, get front color and cover, so discount chapter 1. After that, Ikkyuu has a true ranking of either fifth or seventh (exact position). After exactly eight issues, this pattern ended, with Ikkyuu dropping to the bottom five for it's first true ranking (issue 31) and rising back to the middle for it's second (issue 32). Please if there is any observable evidence to contradict the eight week delay, do share.

I will gladly do. Ikkyu's ranking:
1 6 7 7 9 7 7 10 15 10
Well, that does seem stable enough for me.
Let's see some other new series (Magico, Dois Sol, Grim, Sengoku, Enigma, Meister):
1 6 10 11 5 7 5 10 7 10
1 7 10 11 11 5 12 14 16 19
1 6 8 8 12 7 15 17 9 15
1 6 7 8 10 7 11 8 17 18
1 6 10 9 8 9 8 5 11 5
1 7 8 12 13 10 12 17 18 19
As you can see, as soon as chapter 5 we can find differences between rankings. Differences for chapter 7 are obvious, but in your system, you wouldn't consider already ranked. If chapter 7 is ranked according to votes, how could it be, if it's based on 8 chapters ago?

It will never be canceled, no matter how poorly it ever polls.

Do we have some information on the fact that it polls poorly, or are we just speculating? Have we considered that KochiKame has always been popular enough to stay here?

The front and the middle are the most visible parts of the publication, thus magazines place lead articles there and charge the most to advertisers. Thus the first series always has colored pages, and another series is given color pages and placed in the center of the magazine. If more than two series have color pages, they are placed based on where Shueisha can charge the most for advertising

There are no advertising pages behind single color pages...
The only real advertising the Jump has is placed at the beginning or at the end, nowhere in the middle.

Someone with some level of knowledge regarding how the TOC works has stated that there is an eight issue delay between the release of a chapter and when it's poll position is reflected in TOC.

Source?

Obata corroborated the same thing in Bakuman.

Source?

There has never even been speculation about an alternate amount of time that it takes

Do you want me to give one? Then we could say that there are different possibilities.

 

[ruggia]

Someone can show me a case where it does happen, but I can show you many cases where that doesn't happen in that way. So we cannot draw such conclusions..

I'm sure most of the people here still remembers the infamous "Kuroko treatment" not so long ago.

For quite awhile not-that-long-ago, every time Kuroko hit dead-last or reached the low-Bottom 5, WSJ tried to boost it back up by awarding a color page right after. The cycle of Bottom 5 -> color page -> Bottom 5 -> color page etc continued on for quite a while until Kuroko finally managed to get out of Bottom 5 by itself.
It was quite ridiculous when WSJ "rescued" Kuroko with color pages to save it from the bottom, only to see it go straight back down the next week. It was quite clear that WSJ was promoting Kuroko massively, yet Kuroko remained at the bottom all those times.
If the placements are really used to promote certain series, then WSJ should have just places Kuroko new the beginning (or even towards the middle) instead of always bringing back down after it had a color page.

 

[Iron21]

I always wondered if the authors in SJ are aware of their own manga rankings every week. I faintly remember the author of Beelzebub, Ryuuhei, commented on one of his colored pages. "In celebration of Beelzebub coming in 2nd place in the rankings." etc..

That's the only time I remember an author in SJ commenting on the rankings. I normally see, "with the surging popularity" or "thanks for support for helping the manga become a hit" in other manga or magazine.

 

[BlaZin]

I always wondered if the authors in SJ are aware of their own manga rankings every week. I faintly remember the author of Beelzebub, Ryuuhei, commented on one of his colored pages. "In celebration of Beelzebub coming in 2nd place in the rankings." etc..

That's the only time I remember an author in SJ commenting on the rankings. I normally see, "with the surging popularity" or "thanks for support for helping the manga become a hit" in other manga or magazine.

You obviously haven't read Bakuman. It's a great manga and I would recommend reading it. But as for your question, yes the authors are aware of their rankings each week. And even if they weren't aware of how they ranked each week, they would still be able to tell by the TOC, the same as us.

 

[Iron21]

You obviously haven't read Bakuman. It's a great manga and I would recommend reading it.

lol, only read up to chapter 20 and stopped. Because at that time, there was only 20 chapters released. I just haven't gotten back to it yet, but since it seems like I'm missing out on a lot of stuff. I'll pick it back up soon.

 

[Negative Syndicate]

It is confirmed that Asou will return once again with one shot on next issue.

 

[Zeromcd]

Jump Issue 33 Information

Lead CP: Naruto
Cover: Naruto
Center Colour: Golden Future Cup Entry #2 SINS (47Pages), Magico, Gintama,
One shot: Chou Nouryokusha Psychic no Sainan (Asou Shuichi)
Extra Pages: Kagami no Kuni no Harisugawa (23Pages)
On Break: One Piece

 

[Sayaendo]

(ST&RS 1 spoilers)
ST&RS was neat, but the girl is not nearly as likeable as the two MCs.
The setup wasn't perfect (why is one of the most promising young astronomists a principal of a school in a different country? Principal is not a job related to astronomy no matter which school it is. Also "chosen child" setup which is always very depressing. And lastly, decoding such a message should provide humanity with tons of both info and questions about the aliens, none of which were mentioned in the opening announcement), but I still like it. I'm pretty certain that the two MCs will NOT be able to go to Mars in the first appointed date so it'll be interesting to see where that goes.

Can't say much about Harisugawa. It was everything I expected it to be, as a fan of Mx0.

 

[Asarii]

UHU, just out of curiosity what basis are you forming your arguments from? If it's based on observation alone, we're all on the same boat about how the ranking works. I do find your insights interesting though.

There are no advertising pages behind single color pages...
The only real advertising the Jump has is placed at the beginning or at the end, nowhere in the middle.

I have several copies of JUMP, and it does have colour advertisements in the middle of the magazine. Always between the lead cover and the content, but there are also none in the end.

EDIT: We already have a thread for ST&RS so any discussion about the series will be moved there from here onwards.

 

[UHU]

UHU, just out of curiosity what basis are you forming your arguments from? If it's based on observation alone, we're all on the same boat about how the ranking works.

Of course it's observation, observation of the last 30 years' table of contents. And it's what Oda said too (at that time, he just confirmed what I already thought).

We're all on the same boat, and this is why I'm surprised people make wild assumptions like this "8 week" rule. I just try to remind everyone that we should trust only the most proven things.

I have several copies of JUMP, and it does have colour advertisements in the middle of the magazine. Always between the lead cover and the content, but there are also none in the end.

I have several copies of Jump too, I just checked the eight of them (from 1985 to 2010), and I found no color ad (such as the one usually on page 2) behind single manga color page. The last two pages are ads (after the TOC).

Do you have a picture of such an ad (in context)? Maybe we just misunderstand.

 

[Finestela]

The 8 week rule is not a wild assumption, but something that was actually said on 2ch by insiders.
Here are a list of "Confirmed Facts" about the ToC compiled by the folks on 2ch:
http://http://wiki.livedoor.jp/utikiri/

【確定】
作品生存はアンケートでの相対評価で決定される
台割り(掲載順)は8週毎にアンケート結果＋αから決定される
＋αは商業的思惑や漫画家のスケジュールとかいろいろ
ただし掲載漫画のページ数が変わる場合や編集の推し等で、
印刷直前まで掲載順の入れ替えが行われる可能性がある(いわゆるシャッフル)
その場合1・2号先まで待つと元の位置に戻ったりする
新連載の掲載順は8週目までは一応決まっているが、アンケがイマイチの場合8週前(補正中)でも難なく入れ替えがきく
それゆえ新連載でも6話あたりから掲載順の入れ替えはあり得る。
つまり補正中でも掲載順が極端に低下した場合は、アンケの結果が悪い可能性を暗示している
編集部の狙いはあくまで小中学生
同人女の票は微々たるもの(人気投票は凄いため、恐らく小中学生の票より軽視されてると思われる)
通常新連載の打ち切りは3週掲載された付近で決定される
円満終了時の場合は最終話までに5～8週分の余裕がある
アンケート集計はその週の中からランダムに1000通選ばれる、アンケ締め切りは金曜日
一枚につき3票で3000票がカウントされる
漫画の原稿は普通、掲載の2週間前までには描き上がる
印刷所に出す締切が金曜日あたり、印刷は翌週の火曜にあがる
女性読者は増えたが普通に読んでる子供読者の方が多い
赤丸で巻頭やCCに載るのは連載経験者(打ち切り後心機一転して書く場合が多い)
最終回近くでもアンケート結果が上がれば、次の連載は早くもらえる(ただし掲載順は上がらない)
つまり最終回(打ち切り)近くにアンケートを出すのは決して無駄ではない

 

[ruggia]

最終回近くでもアンケート結果が上がれば、次の連載は早くもらえる(ただし掲載順は上がらない)
つまり最終回(打ち切り)近くにアンケートを出すのは決して無駄ではない

Even if it's the last chapter, if the survey results go up, the next serialization will be granted quickly. (However, positioning won't change )
Hence, it's definitely not pointless to send out questionnaire toward the end of the series(axed)

This part is interesting, cause I never thought about it.
So maybe that's why Kano managed to come back so often.

 

[UHU]

The 8 week rule is not a wild assumption, but something that was actually said on 2ch by insiders.
Here are a list of "Confirmed Facts" about the ToC compiled by the folks on 2ch:

With a good translation of the whole thing, it would be easier to answer you.

But is Eiichiro Oda not an insider enough for you guys?

The voting system is described in Bakuman. Where has the TOC system been described by a confirmed insider (I mean: someone with a name)?

 

[Finestela]

With a good translation of the whole thing, it would be easier to answer you.

But is Eiichiro Oda not an insider enough for you guys?

The voting system is described in Bakuman. Where has the TOC system been described by a confirmed insider (I mean: someone with a name)?

1. It's not the duty of everyone else in this thread to spend their time "proving" to you what are already known. It is your own responsibility to familiarize yourself with relevant facts before engaging in more in-depth discussions regarding the ToC.
2. What exactly did Oda say that you kept on bringing up? As far as I know, authors themselves are prohibited to talk about the detailed inner works of the editor's department, on the record.
3. The voting system is described in Bakuman, but Bakuman NEVER said anything about how rankings translates to ToC.

 

[UHU]

2. What exactly did Oda say that you kept on bringing up? As far as I know, authors themselves are prohibited to talk about the detailed inner works of the editor's department, on the record.

Here is what he said (already mentioned here):

D: Oda-sensei!! My brother says that the order of the manga in Jump is decided by popularity. Is that true? (by Yasumo)

O: That's a fitting suspicion for a Jump reader. Since I get these fairly often, allow me to answer. To be precise, not quite. The order is decided every week by the Jump sub-chief editor. But it's true that the most popular series are placed in the front of the magazine. Also, sometimes he decides, we're pushing THIS one this week! I guess you could say it's the "order you could enjoy the magazine in". But of course, the only TRULY correct answer is to read it in the order YOU want.

I will avoid saying that it's your responsibility to read a discussion before entering it, because such words are unpleasant.

3. The voting system is described in Bakuman, but Bakuman NEVER said anything about how rankings translates to ToC.

Exactly. That was my answer to Kaiten. So we don't have any real source on how the TOC is made, Oda excepted.

 

[Finestela]

This part is interesting, cause I never thought about it.
So maybe that's why Kano managed to come back so often.

I'm not so sure Kanou is a good example, since, to me at least, he seems to be the "grinder" of the WSJ authors, and literally keeps dishing out name for new series or 1-shots until something pops up that the editors like.

I mean he has 3 tanks of 1-shots under his belt, and almost enough for a 4th.

A better example would be Nishi of Muhyo and Bokke-san. Considering how soon Bokke-san started after Muhyo ended, I'd say he's one of the biggest beneficiary of this policy.

 

[Mr. Prince]

@UHU
I don't really see how Oda's comment contradicts any of the stuff we had been taking as a base of speculation for this thread. On the contrary, the way I read said SBS (and I think this also comes out quite well in Stephen's TL of it) Oda even affirms most of them!

He says, that popularity DOES mostly decide the TOC order but not solely. The sub-chief editor does final arrangements to the series order, like, when WSJ decides to push a certain series. [I don't like that Stephen used an "also", there is no such expression in the Japanese version. I think it clearly goes back to the "sub-chief editor modifying the ranking" thing in the beginning.]
Well, and how does WSJ usually go about pimping certain series? - Right, by granting them Color Pages.

All that, combined with what has been common sense on 2ch for years (again, there ARE people on 2ch who've proven to be linked to Shueisha/JUMP in some way or other and who shared this information!), makes our take on the TOC pretty comprehensible, if you ask me.
But I really don't wanna force anything onto you. If you want to doubt any of this (confirmed) stuff just because it came from someone who had to stay annonymous in order to keep his job, be my guest. It's just kinda pointless...^^"

 

[k-dom]

Sure! Just grabbed it from the WSJ thread on 2ch:

Spoiler

Since One Piece is missing i added it

Spoiler

As for the 8 chapters discussion I agree with Mr Prince, I don't see in what way Oda contradicts the current hypothesis.
If you have suspicion about the 8 chapters rules, you can at least see it this way : after 8 chapters it's 99% sure that the ranking is based mostly on reader vote.

 

[UHU]

Well, and how does WSJ usually go about pimping certain series? - Right, by granting them Color Pages.

Yes, but not only. The editor can also give it a higher rank, without color pages.

I don't want to annoy people out there, but I think I have some arguments. I don't think that challenging established beliefs can be bad for this topic.

I cannot totally contest what's written in that Japanese text, as I don't have a translation of what is said in there. With what Kaiten told me about Ikkyu, I guess this theory assumes that the first chapter ranked is the ninth chapter.

But:

- Chapter 7 of Hoop Men was ranked 18th. #8 was 18, #9 was 18th, #10 was 18th, #11 was 19th... I guess nobody will explain me that Hoop Men was not ranked until chapter 9. It was a failure (it ended after 17 chapters), and we could see it earlier than with the ninth chapter.

- Chapter 7 of Kagijin was ranked 17th, #8 was 20th, #9 was 20th, #10 was 21st, #11 was 21st... It ended after 17 chapters as well. As you can see, chapters 7 and 8 were ranked, contrary to this famous theory.

- Chapter 7 of Light Wing was ranked 17th, #8 was 17th, #9 was 19th, #10 was 17th, #11 was 18th... It ended after 21 chapters. The failure was obvious before chapter 9, and this theory is proven wrong again.

- Chapter 7 of Chagecha was ranked 16th, #8 was 19th and it got canceled. How could it be possible, if it was based on 8 chapters ago?

- Chapter 6 of M&Y was ranked 18th, #7 was 20th, #8 was 20th, #9 was 20th, the tenth and last chapter was 19th.

- Chapter 6 of Jumbor (from Takei) was ranked 18th, #7 was 18th, #8 was 18th, #9 was 18th, the tenth and last chapter was 19th.

- Chapter 6 of KO Sen was ranked 17th, #7 was 21st, #8 was 21st, #9 was 20th, #10 to #12 were 21st. The ninth chapter cannot be the first one to be ranked...

- Chapter 6 of Muddy was ranked 19th, #7 was 19th, #8 was 19th, #9 was 20th, #10 was 19th, #11 was 20th, the last and 12th chapter was 21.

Those are examples from 2007, but I have some other examples for previous years.

It's not just the fact that "insiders" from 2ch may be doubtful. It's not just the fact that Oda says the table of content is decided by decisions from the editor rather than by mere popularity.

It's just that the "8 weeks" theory is proven wrong by facts.

So, why should we bother with it?

I hope you get my point.

Now, I am going to explain how I see things. I think it is more consistent with the facts we have, but I will let you judge whether it's relevant or not.

I think that when the sub-chief editor creates the table of content, he makes a decision on each series with two aspect in mind:
- Its current global popularity (not from the votes of one chapter, but from its votes for the last few months for example).
- His will to promote this series, which depends from time to time (as Oda explained it).

Of course, it gives us much less information on the results of the votes, but this is safer this way, and it's more coherent with what happens in the table of content.

A Japanese website makes moving averages of the last 10 issues for each series. I think it is the smartest way to see how series are performing. Big trends are significant, but episodic variations are irrelevant.

 

[Josl]

Only that we understand each other. Your point is that because for example chapter 7, 8, 9 of Hoop Men were ranked identically that the 8 chapter rule is “proven” wrong?
But I ask you how does it contradict the 8 week rule?? The rule says that the Editor places the chapter where he sees it fit during the first eight weeks. Can you tell me one good reason why he should place a chapter in the middle or higher when the first three questionary results are really bad for said series??? It would be a waste to give it a higher rank when the series will clearly die.
Or on the contrary, why not give a series which does well in the first 3 questionary results color pages and a higher rank??

The best example I have for the theory is Meister. Look at Meister Rank:
1 7 8 12 13 10 12 17 18 19
Meister came out during a time where they wanted to have a Sports series in the Magazine. So they promoted it by placing it in the middle of the Magazine until last. But on the 8th week when the rankings took over it plumed. This is why people say that the ranking of the first 7 chapters CAN give an indication about the survival of a series BUT it is random until the 8th chapter.