Mag Talk Weekly Shonen Jump [2012] - Discussion and TOC Talk

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TXC

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why is everyone so surprised by bulge's ranking? i thought it was a pretty typical shounen action series. care to explain what so great about this series is?
I feel the same way... besides the art nothing stand out. The characters are so normal and boring. The world as potencial, but that's about it. You could say OP started slow, but it was funny and enjoyable with luffy being interesting from the start.
 
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Kaiten

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New series usually peak with their first ranking. Although 8th isn't necessarily bad, Bulge will probably rank in the double digits in a few chapters unless Jump readers are wowed by one of the following chapters. Or it could do a Nisekoi and consistently rank in the same position every week, but that's a rare occurrence.
You Jump sages are so fucking annoying. Long term success or failure can not be divined from a single TOC ranking, especially one not in the bottom five or the top five. By your idiotic little standards the only series in the last five years that would have survived are Double Arts, Toriko, and Psi. Sket Dance, Psyren, Mago, Bakuman, Nisekoi, Beelzebub, and Kuroko initially ranked in the middle of the TOC, all survived at least three years. So please, GTFO with all of this "New series usually peak with their first ranking" bullshit. Bulge's first ranking gives no indication of future success or failure. All we know is it did not fall straight into the bottom five. Next week it could rise, it could fall, or it could stay in the middle. This week, at least, it is quite safe. Anyone who claims they can determine the future of a series based on one mid-magazine ranking is full of shit.

The only thing with real meaning is that Kurogane and Pajama have taken up seemingly permanent spots in the bottom five. Both could provide cushion for Momiji and Bulge.
 
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Schabrak

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Well that was a firm but fair statement of the state of affairs surrounding ToC ratings.
 
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crimsonlink310

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I don't think you should be comparing Bleach with Final Fantasy or the earthquake victims >_>
they're both on a completely different level. (especially the earthquake)

but I am quite surprised to realize that WSJ didn't do much for Bleach's 10th anniversary
Actually they gave Kubo a cake made in the image of Bleach 1st volume saying happy 10th anniversary but that was it as far as I know.
 

wintercry

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Since it hasn't gotten any much color pages lately, maybe it'll get one on September.
 

k-dom

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You Jump sages are so fucking annoying. Long term success or failure can not be divined from a single TOC ranking, especially one not in the bottom five or the top five. By your idiotic little standards the only series in the last five years that would have survived are Double Arts, Toriko, and Psi. Sket Dance, Psyren, Mago, Bakuman, Nisekoi, Beelzebub, and Kuroko initially ranked in the middle of the TOC, all survived at least three years. So please, GTFO with all of this "New series usually peak with their first ranking" bullshit. Bulge's first ranking gives no indication of future success or failure. All we know is it did not fall straight into the bottom five. Next week it could rise, it could fall, or it could stay in the middle. This week, at least, it is quite safe. Anyone who claims they can determine the future of a series based on one mid-magazine ranking is full of shit.
Actually your list is not entirely true since only Bakuman and Sket Dance had middle ranks, the others had either color page or quite good rank (Kuroko:5, Nisekoi:6)
So I've made a bit of statistic based on the series between 2005 and now
The table below display, the rank in the TOC for chapter 8 (with color page), the number of series which achieved this rank between 2005 and now (new series excluded, started series in 2005 included), the number of series which achieved chapter 100 with this rank
Code:
Rank	Nb serie	Nb > 100
2	1		1
4	3		3
5	2		1
6	7		4
7	0		0
8	6		1
9	3		1
10	6		1
11	3		1
12	5		2
13	8		3
14	4		2
15	6		0
16	5		1
17	5		0
18	7		1
19	2		0
20	4		0
21	1		0
22	1		0
CC	9		4
That's make a percentage of success of
Rank 2-6 : 70%
Rank 7-10 : 20%
Rank 11-14 : 40%
Rank 15-18 : 8.7%
>18 : 0%
Color page : 45%

So ironically a bottom middle rank gives you better chance than a top middle rank :-)
 

Schabrak

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Or it's totally random and everything falls and rises from chapter to chapter, from arc to arc. A good ranking by the fans wont make the next chapter any better than without a good ranking. I imagine every mangaka gives their 100% all the time to keep being at the top or try to rise.
 
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Estranho

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Or it's totally random and everything falls and rises from chapter to chapter, from arc to arc.
But that's what statistics is about too: finding a "pattern" in things with apparent randomness, like opinions, throws of dice, or, in this case, ranking positions.
Of course that's not a proof of a sucess/failure, but it's an interesting information.
 

Jaymie

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But that's what statistics is about too: finding a "pattern" in things with apparent randomness, like opinions, throws of dice, or, in this case, ranking positions.
Of course that's not a proof of a sucess/failure, but it's an interesting information.
Exactly. Bulge ranking in the middle doesn't mean that it's going to be canceled next week or anything, but it means that its initial reception wasn't as positive as, say, Nisekoi's. In the long term it's meaningless, but for right now it's a hurdle that Bulge will have to cross. I'll rephrase my past statement before someone else sets off like fireworks: Sequential chapters of new series historically rank lower than the first chapter did (at least until the series becomes popular or stabilizes, which takes a few weeks), so there is reasonable room for speculation that Bulge's upcoming chapters will rank lower than the first did, and because the first chapter ranked 8th, there is a possibility that the next few chapters will rank below 8th. This is based on historical evidence and is not my own personal death wish against Bulge (which I happen to enjoy and support, which is why I'm worried about its future). And I'll repeat myself to make myself clear, it doesn't mean that Bulge will be canceled next week. It's just an observation, and, for people who actually believe in statistics, a minor cause for concern.
 
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Schabrak

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Again, sometimes the competition will have such good/favoured chapters, that even new and good series will be placed in the middle. Does any of the statistics cover the content of the other series? No, so it's rather random. Unless a bigger fanbase is build, this will keep being more random than statistically verifiable.
 
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Newkerzy

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Just wanna ask, from some posts I've read here, and from what I can understand, we're getting WSJ Edited Mangas on Monday?? is that correct??
 

wintercry

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If you're talking about the post-holiday interference: Then yes, probably Sunday though.

If you meant its official release (Though I doubt it): No, WSJ Issues officially go on sale every Monday. Early Issues come out 5-6 days before (Around Tuesday or Wednesday).
 
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Newkerzy

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So, this Sunday/Monday, right?? (for Edited Mangas, I mean)
 

wintercry

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Based on what Heiji said, then it's likely to be two days on causality difference (not three days, I miscalculated). So it's probably Monday/Tuesday instead.
 
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Newkerzy

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If Edited Mangas are out on Monday at the earliest :(, then I feel bad for the US members since word is, the FBI is going to shut down almost half or a quarter of the US's internet connection because there's apparently a massive malware attacking the US and they're shutting it down on Monday so that there will be less affected computers.
 

Schabrak

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It's will become a problem for every internet user that's infected by the botnet. Everyone should check if they are a victim of the DNS Changer. German "english" check site.
 

k-dom

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Again, sometimes the competition will have such good/favoured chapters, that even new and good series will be placed in the middle. Does any of the statistics cover the content of the other series? No, so it's rather random. Unless a bigger fanbase is build, this will keep being more random than statistically verifiable.
What is the difference for you between random and statiscally verifiable ? Statistic deals with random numbers. The percentages clearly shows that the law is not uniform ( i guess that's what you mean by random ). They don't say that a high rank will ensure you a long serialization they just show that it has a bigger chance. It's still up to the mangaka to show that a good initial idea can continue to be good on the long term, series like double art, enigma, magico, etc shows that it is not that easy.
 

wintercry

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If Edited Mangas are out on Monday at the earliest :(, then I feel bad for the US members since word is, the FBI is going to shut down almost half or a quarter of the US's internet connection because there's apparently a massive malware attacking the US and they're shutting it down on Monday so that there will be less affected computers.
Yes, it's a DNS changing malware. That explains the recent annoying redirectings from other sites, probably the provider or host is infected with the horse. Also, most Edited Manga groups are in US, so there's a chance in some release confusion along with the post-holiday schedule change on WSJ. Though it wouldn't matter that much.
 
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Newkerzy

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Damn, that would mean MS & other sites might not even be able to upload the Edited Mangas and we have to wait until Wednesday. Oh well....
 

k-dom

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What is the problem since it is the same day as usual ? The earlier we have it, the more we will have to wait for the issue after. It's best when it is regular in the end.
 
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