Mag Talk Weekly Shonen Jump [2017] - Discussion and TOC Talk

[Kave]

Last seen rankings, both volumes released together.
69,177 Toriko vol.1
66,847 Toriko vol.2

2009
Did not appear in the yearly list.

Last seen rankings.
153,252 Toriko vol.3
149,487 Toriko vol.4
186,365 Toriko vol.5
179,648 Toriko vol.6

2010
Did not appear in the yearly list.

Last seen rankings.
167,067 Toriko vol.7
173,254 Toriko vol.8
184,113 Toriko vol.9
158,452 Toriko vol.10
190,911 Toriko vol.11

The MAL thread is pretty inaccurate

2009: *1,400,061 トリコ
2010: *1,556,103 トリコ

 

[savethecat]

What do you guys think Neverland will sell this time around?

 

[Halloween]

there are plenty of better things out there that sold way less.

And did those better things have the same level of promotion that Toriko received?

--- Double Post Merged, Feb 4, 2017, Original Post Date: Feb 4, 2017 ---

What do you guys think Neverland will sell this time around?

More than the first volume. Not sure by how much.

 

[DyanSon]

What do you guys think Neverland will sell this time around?

is Neverland initial print is still 120k?

 

[Tamil]

The MAL thread is pretty inaccurate

2009: *1,400,061 トリコ
2010: *1,556,103 トリコ

I was expecting more for its 2009/2010 sales. Comparing Toriko & BC's sales in their starting years, they're close or is Toriko a lot higher?

 

[Swavey]

What do you guys think Neverland will sell this time around?

More than Ghost Tits

 

[Halloween]

More than Ghost Tits

Really? Wouldn't that put it in BC-tier?

 

[DyanSon]

Really? Wouldn't that put it in BC-tier?

It should be close to MHA volume 2

 

[Swavey]

Really? Wouldn't that put it in BC-tier?

Or higher

 

[Halloween]

or higher

I don't think it's impossible, but I believe it took Neverland a month to hit 100k. BC hits that in the first week, IIRC. That would be quite the jump.

 

[Scruffy8642]

Smh, all these people acting like Toriko was a failure. Sure it didn't live up to its marketing and expectations, but its still in the top 150 best sellers of all time! How is that bad!? Shimabu wouldn't be struggling with money in the slightest, not to mention is past series and their success. Im sure Jump would be happy to take him again someday, especially with the flood of bad sellers nowadays.

About him serialising in Saikyou Jump, its probably is his own decision. What mangaka starts a new series within 6 months of his last finishing, especially after such a long serialisation? None I can think of in Jump at least aside Akimoto who's a monster as we all know. If he wanted to do another Jump series he'd probably have to wait 2+ years to even be considered like Tamura and Fujimaki have. He's successful, but not OP/Naruto level, so he can't just jump the queue in serials otherwise newbies would never get a shot. He's probably doing this as a side thing so he can continue doing something with a lax schedule while working on a new series for one of the main mags in the background. Better off than sitting there doing nothing.

Also why is everyone so against gag series? Sure Shimabu can write a great adventure, but gags have their own charm. I normally dislike gag only manga with no story/action but Saiki has opened my eyes to how great they can be. Either way I'm sure it will be interesting at least.

 

[Tanzo]

Interview with Kaiu Shirai/Posuka Demizu (The Promised Neverland) - Part 1
http://news.mixi.jp/view_news.pl?id=4416729&media_id=141
Editor: Takushi Sugita

- Neverland was conceived around 3 years ago
- When Shirai and Sugita met, he took 300 pages (around 15 chapters) to Sugita
- The main character was still a girl from the start. That didn't change throughout the planning phase up to serialization.
- Posuka really wanted to be the artist after seeing the story. Their (Shirai and Posuka's) first work was Popy's Wish on Shonen Jump+, which they chose to do just to get reader impressions on there before heading to WSJ.
Popy's Wish: https://shonenjumpplus.com/episode/10833497643049550006
Part 2 tomorrow.

 

[Kadir0]

I am assuming that's William Minerva as a child

 

[Kave]

I was expecting more for its 2009/2010 sales. Comparing Toriko & BC's sales in their starting years, they're close or is Toriko a lot higher?

Toriko did better. Toriko volume 5 sold 200k in 3 weeks, BC volume 7 sold 150k in 4 weeks

BC sales are pretty similar to World Trigger's first two years

 

[Nayrael]

I really doubt that Toriko's Mangaka wast forced to go to a lighter magazine. Even if it lost its popularity, Toriko still sold overall well through it's existence, and just the fact that it was once very popular is enough for him to be considered "promising".
Also, this certainly isn't out of desparation. Toriko ended recently, and Mangaka can take a year to few years to get re-published. Maybe desparation argument would make sense year or two down the line, but now? Was there even enough time to get desparate?

Also, being published in a weekly magazine is helluva exhausting, and some Mangaka (especially if they made enough money) may want to change to a lighter schedule where they won't be as stressed and will have more free time. It could have been Jump SQ, but if he wants more relaxation and has enough money in his wallet, this isn't a bad choice either.
We also don't know how long this series is to last. If he feels like he wants to go for a higher pay and is in the mood for it, he can just end it and send a new manuscript to Jump SQ or WSJ.

 

[Unok]

You can't blame us for being quick about judging that. There's no way this is good for him.

I feel like I was one of the few, who were sure he would do a gag series next. He loves making gag series. And he mentioned that doing a story-driven series like Toriko was quite exhausting. Hell even around the end of Toriko, he did a gag oneshot too. It was so obvious to me that he will start a gag series after Toriko.

Saikyu is not a weekly magazine. He may just not wanted to do a weekly series. Or that the gag series he wanted to do, to have felt it won't go well with Jump. Also it's unknown how pages will be this series per chapter, so he could easily also do a weekly series if he wants. But the only thing I'm almost 100% sure is that this is what he wants: doing a gag series with less pressure for story and deadlines (thus Saikyu Jump is perfect for his desire). No need to go "big" again with another series like Toriko.

 

[G_I_A]

Nevermind all that. Shima is doomed anyway...

Did you guys saw Neverland chapter? OMG.

 

[TyVip]

Does anyone know the correlation between printed copies and sales copies? I know that higher sale = higher print copies, but what's the safe point between sales and printed? Or Jump inflate the number to make it looks good?

Some example

Food war vol 20 shows that the series has 10,000,000 copies in print. So in theory each volume has 500,000 copies printed

Food War sold at peak 450k with some 500k, and right now average between 380k-400k before it was too low to show on the ranking.
±50,000 differences

The Promised Neverland has initial print of 120k, it reaches around 100k before it was too low to show on the ranking.
±20,000 differences assume no re-print

(Correct me if i'm wrong with this) MHA reaches 7,000,000 copies in print by volume 10? So in theory each volume has 700,000 copies printed.

MHA sold at peak between 550k-600k or 600k-650k(?) before it was too low to show on the ranking.
± 50,000 or 100,000 differences. Shuiesha probably assume it will grow more popularity so I guess the differences is bigger than the other two samples.

And this is the series I want to pointed out about "inflation"

By volume 2 Yuragi has 300,000 copies in print

We know that volume 1 sold ~70,000 in a month before it was too low to show on the ranking, it HAD multiple reprint (since it debut around 30k first week)

Volume 2 reaches 100,000 before falling off, so we can assume volume 1 did about 100,000 too. ± 100,000 differences. At this point I would like to think Yuragi eventually reach around 120,000 copies/volume (but we can't see the other 20,000 selling). ± 60,000 differences

Volume 3 shows that the series has 500,000 copies in print. Again, it sold about 106,000 before it was too low to show on the ranking. If we go by the ranking, then it would be ± 200,000 differences . I would like to think that Yuragi at this point reaches 150,000 copies/volume so that the difference is ± 50,000 differences.

Volume 4 shows that the series has 700,000 copies in print. Again, it sold about ~100,000 copies before it was too low to show on the ranking.
If we go by 100,000 copies/volume, then it would have ± 300,000 differences
If we go by it eventually reaches 150,000 copies/volume, then it would only have ± 100,000 differences. Which is the same as MHA.

 

[jagman1x3]

Print numbers are what the publisher expects that the volume will be able to sell, sometimes it's too much and sometimes it's too little. Not much else you can say about it other than that the print number is the absolute maximum number of new copies a volume can sell since they obviously have to be printed in order to exist.
Also worth noting you can't really just divide the print number by the number of volumes. The first volume(s) of a series will always have more copies in print than newer ones because they're reprinted more frequently and lots of people stop buying a series after a certain point so later volumes get smaller print runs.

 

[Bigivelfhq]

Does anyone know the correlation between printed copies and sales copies? I know that higher sale = higher print copies, but what's the safe point between sales and printed? Or Jump inflate the number to make it looks good?

Some example

Food war vol 20 shows that the series has 10,000,000 copies in print. So in theory each volume has 500,000 copies printed

Food War sold at peak 450k with some 500k, and right now average between 380k-400k before it was too low to show on the ranking.
±50,000 differences

The Promised Neverland has initial print of 120k, it reaches around 100k before it was too low to show on the ranking.
±20,000 differences assume no re-print

(Correct me if i'm wrong with this) MHA reaches 7,000,000 copies in print by volume 10? So in theory each volume has 700,000 copies printed.

MHA sold at peak between 550k-600k or 600k-650k(?) before it was too low to show on the ranking.
± 50,000 or 100,000 differences. Shuiesha probably assume it will grow more popularity so I guess the differences is bigger than the other two samples.

And this is the series I want to pointed out about "inflation"

By volume 2 Yuragi has 300,000 copies in print

We know that volume 1 sold ~70,000 in a month before it was too low to show on the ranking, it HAD multiple reprint (since it debut around 30k first week)

Volume 2 reaches 100,000 before falling off, so we can assume volume 1 did about 100,000 too. ± 100,000 differences. At this point I would like to think Yuragi eventually reach around 120,000 copies/volume (but we can't see the other 20,000 selling). ± 60,000 differences

Volume 3 shows that the series has 500,000 copies in print. Again, it sold about 106,000 before it was too low to show on the ranking. If we go by the ranking, then it would be ± 200,000 differences . I would like to think that Yuragi at this point reaches 150,000 copies/volume so that the difference is ± 50,000 differences.

Volume 4 shows that the series has 700,000 copies in print. Again, it sold about ~100,000 copies before it was too low to show on the ranking.
If we go by 100,000 copies/volume, then it would have ± 300,000 differences
If we go by it eventually reaches 150,000 copies/volume, then it would only have ± 100,000 differences. Which is the same as MHA.

The printing more to look good is a dangerous move, because the things that are printing cost money, money that they lose. The retailer and the distributor can return unsold volumes before a certain period with it.
I would guess when they print a lot is due to believing that soon or later it will sell and that the extra numbers at least provide a bigger presence of the title in the stores bookshelves.

Also is important to remember that Oricon doesn't track all sales, even when only counting stores. Meaning that a series can sell a lot more than what is shown in Oricon.
By a report on Japanese Publishing from 2014-2015, Manga Volume have a return of 37.3% in average, so 62.7% of them are considered sold.

With this value of 62.7% number we get:

Shokugeki no Soma 1-20 vol.: 10,000,000 printed(500,000 per volume) -> 6,700,000 sold(335,000 per volume)

My Hero Academia 1-10 vol: 7,000,000 printed(700,000 per volume) -> 4,389,000 sold(438,900 per volume)

Yuragi-sou no Yuuna-san 1-4 vol: 700,000 printed(175,000 per volume) -> 438,900 sold(109,725 per volume)

One Piece 1-83 vol: 340,000,000 printed(4,096,386 per volume) -> 213,180,000 sold(2,568,434 per volume)

I would guess that most popular and old series get a more accurate return rate, so the difference between printing and sold is much shorter. New series or series in a changing popularity phase, have a more unstable and bigger difference.