Mag Talk Weekly Shonen Jump [2021] - Discussion and ToC Talk

[Franz]

Definitely not. Don't let the all the recent booms make you forget how weak the rest of the decade actually was in general.

Haykyuu, World Trigger, My Hero, Kimetsu, Neverland, Black Clover, Stone, Jujutsu, Chainsaw Man...

 

[101nemesis]

Definitely not. Don't let the all the recent booms make you forget how weak the rest of the decade actually was in general.

It was weak in between 2015 to 2018. But we did get quite a few big hits last decade. But ranking the hits from their peak sales (from memory)

1. Kimetsu No Yaiba (Peak??? Currently at 4.6M)
2. Assassination Classroom (1.1M)
3. Haikyuu!! (1M)
4. My Hero Academia (800k)
5. The Promised Neverland (800k)
6. Jujutsu Kaisen (600k) (Probably gonna end up being number 4 in few months)
7. Shokugeki No Soma (450k)
8. World Trigger (350k)
9. Black Clover (300k)
10. Chainsawman (250k) (will probably be number 7 or higher by the time anime comes out)
11. Nisekoi (250k)
12. Dr. Stone (200k)
13. Saiki Kusou (100k)
14. Yuragi-San (I don't remember what it's sales were like)
15. Hinomaru Zumo (30-40k)

Might be missing another one or two.
And this is accounting for 2009 to 2019. If we go 2010 to 2020, then we can add Mashle, UxU, Ayakashi Triangle from this year.

 

[Ctkk]

I still think the 2000s would probably look better than this.

 

[101nemesis]

I still think the 2000s would probably look better than this.

Probably will. But I'm just merely pointing out that the era is not as "weak" as it might have seemed.

 

[tirakai]

Surely Jump is in its Dark Ages right now if anything. The current lineup is the weakest its been since the 70s in regards to successful ongoing hits, ever since 2016 they've been losing more hits than they're getting new ones. And they're losing two more long runners already right at the start of 2021.

I suppose on the flipside that does make it a great time for new series. When jump only has 2-4 spots open like usual, a new series has to perform well compared to the already established lineup in order to not get axed, but since most of the magazine is less than a year old and only 10 current series sell above 20k (soon to be 9 with WNL leaving) there's a much lower hill to climb to stand out.

 

[Ryuusei]

Reprints - 12/11

Straight to bookstores

1/12 - Haikyuu!! Final Guidebook
1/13 - Jujutsu Kaisen 14
1/14 - Gotouge Koyoharu's Collection of Short Stories
1/19 - Kimetsu no Yaiba 1~11
1/20 - Kimetsu no Yaiba 12~22
1/22 - Undead Unluck 1~4
1/22 - Mashle 1~3
1/26 - Jujtsu Kaisen 0, 1~6
1/27 - Jujutsu Kaisen 7~13

Straight to Warehouses

1/5 - Black Clover 4, 18
1/5 - Black Clover Gaiden: Quartet Knights 2, 3
1/5 - Mission: Yozakura Family 1~5
1/7 - The Promised Neverland 1~4
1/8 - Dr. Stone 4~18
1/8 - Haikyuu!! Complete Guidebook
1/8 - Hidarikiki no Eren 10
1/12 - Jigokuraku 2, 3
1/20 - Gintama 77
1/20 - Haikyuu!! 1~20, 22~27, 32~36, 45
1/20 - Haikyuu!! Official Color Illustration Collection
1/20 - My Hero Academia 1~27
1/20 - Haikyuu-bu!! 2, 3


Reprints - 12/14

Straight to warehouses

1/15 - Fire Punch 1~8

 

[Franz]

I still think the 2000s would probably look better than this.

Let's not exaggerate Kimetsu alone eats any Jump title from the 2000s except Bleach.

 

[101nemesis]

Let's not exaggerate Kimetsu alone eats any Jump title from the 2000s except Bleach.

Not true. If we count the decade from 1999 to 2009, we have plenty of big shot series;

Naruto, Prince of Tennis, Bleach, Death Note, Gintama, Reborn, Eyeshield 21, D-Grayman, Kuroko, Toriko, Nura, Bakuman
All of these had sales above 500k at the very least.

 

[Franz]

Not true. If we count the decade from 1999 to 2009, we have plenty of big shot series;

But none of these except Bleach have sold the same copies as Kimetsu.

 

[101nemesis]

But none of these except Bleach have sold the same copies as Kimetsu.

Bleach has 120M Worldwide. Kimetsu has 120M in Japan. They are not the same.

Prince of Tennis had a first print peak very close to Bleach's.
Gintama is the only other franchise outside of Kimetsu and One Piece that has remained a gold mine for WSJ. Also its numbers are massive for a comedy.
Naruto has 250M+ worldwide
Death Note is Death Note. Only reason it doesn't have a higher number is because it has 100 chapters length.

Each of them were big and important in their own right.

 

[ItsSamu]

Time to predict the future. Again.

Covers predictions:
Issue 7: New serialization round #1
Issue 8: New serialization round #2
Issue 9: New serialization round #3
Issue 10: Undead Unluck (1st anniversary cover)
Issue 11: Mashle (1st anniversary cover)
Issue 12: Black Clover (6th anniversary cover)
Issue 13: One Piece (new volume release)
Issue 14: Jujutsu Kaisen (3rd anniversary cover)
Issue 15: Dr.STONE (4th anniversary cover)
Issue 16: New serialization round, next batch
Issue 17: New serialization round, next batch
Issue 18: My Hero Academia (anime season 5 start)

That pretty much sounds like what I'd anticipate. With the recent serialisation round being a short one I expect at least three (or more) from #7 onwards. Based on current trends that would indicate Moriking, Our Blood Oath, and Agravity Boys would be most likely to end. The next couple months after that will be very interesting to see which of the next tier of series is in serious danger.

On the topic of 00s vs 10s, if we're being strict and not including 1999 (so 2000-2009 vs 2010-2019 titles) then the result might vary depending whether the metric is number of hits, total volume sales over the decade, or peak sales of titles from that decade. Either way I don't imagine it would be that different between the two, though if not for Demon Slayer the 00s would probably be far ahead.

 

[Franz]

Bleach has 120M Worldwide. Kimetsu has 120M in Japan. They are not the same.

Prince of Tennis had a first print peak very close to Bleach's.
Gintama is the only other franchise outside of Kimetsu and One Piece that has remained a gold mine for WSJ. Also its numbers are massive for a comedy.
Naruto has 250M+ worldwide
Death Note is Death Note. Only reason it doesn't have a higher number is because it has 100 chapters length.

Each of them were big and important in their own right.

Naruto is from the 90s, not the 2000s technically.

However, the argument lies in the fact that the 2000s were more successful than the 2010s.

In my opinion, no, in terms of titles I would say that in the years 2010 there were more successes.

 

[Mankichi Togawa]

I'd say 00s is better than 10s in terms on impact. The main issue is that almost all 00s hits are focused in the first half of the decade, while 10s is better distributed during the entire decade. In terms of quantity of hits, I'd say is 50%-50%:

00s 1st half (2000-2004)
-Naruto and Bleach, specially Naruto
-Prince of Tennis, let's remember is the 3rd biggest spokon in sales. Almost the same length as Haikyuu, yet it has 15-20 more million copies sold.
-Technically Naruto and Prince of Tennis are 1999.
-Gintama in term on total sales and Death Note in terms of sales per volume (30-32 million copies sold with 12 volumes)
-Hitman Reborn and D.Grayman close the wonderful 2004 (30 million copies and 25 million copies respectively)
-The other hit of that period is Eyeshield21 which...is only at 20 million number.

00s 2nd half (2005-2010)
-2005-2007 period was weak. Yes, we had Neuro and Sket Dance, but their numbers are low. To Love-Ru would be the biggest hit of that period, with 15 million copies if I recall.
-2008 was a decent year with 3 hits, but which haven't had the same impact of the 00s 1st half or 10s manga (Bakuman at 15, Nurarihyon at 12-13 I think, Toriko at 20)
-2009 had Kuroko no Basket which is is the biggest hit of this entire period with 31 million copies. We got 2 more hits which are very known, but both Medaka Box and Beelzebub are at like 5 million copies.

10s decade
-2011: Nisekoi, it was the romcom of the period but sales are at 12 million if I recall
-2012 had actually 2 hits with impact: Haikyuu (40) and Assassination Classroom (28), and it also had Shokugeki which did as good as the second best hit of 00s 2nd half (20)
-2014: My Hero Academia (almost 30)
-2016: Kimetsu no Yaiba (already beating Bleach in total copies in Japan), The Promised Neverland (where is it now, 23?)
-2018: Jujutsu Kaisen

NUMBER OF HITS WITH 20 OR MORE MILLION COPIES:
00s: 9 (8 in first half, 1 in second half)
10s: 7 (not counting Jujutsu Kaisen)

NUMBER OF HITS WITH 30 OR MORE MILLION COPIES
00s: 6 (6 in first half, 0 in second half)
10s: 4

---
If we don't count 1999 as 00s and we count 2009 as 00s and not as 10 then situation is:

NUMBER OF HITS WITH 20 OR MORE MILLION COPIES (I'm going to count 1999 (Prince of Tennis, Naruto, and Hikaru no Go) as 00s and 2009 (Kuroko no Basket) as 10s)
00s: 7 (5 in first half, 2 in second half)
10s: 6 (not counting Jujutsu Kaisen)

NUMBER OF HITS WITH 30 OR MORE MILLION COPIES
00s: 5 (4 in first half, 1 in second half)
10s: 3

 

[Franz]

-Technically Naruto and Prince of Tennis are 1999.

I consider them to belong to the 90s rather than the 2000s

 

[DreamcastDazia]

Surely Jump is in its Dark Ages right now if anything. The current lineup is the weakest its been since the 70s in regards to successful ongoing hits, ever since 2016 they've been losing more hits than they're getting new ones. And they're losing two more long runners already right at the start of 2021.

I suppose on the flipside that does make it a great time for new series. When jump only has 2-4 spots open like usual, a new series has to perform well compared to the already established lineup in order to not get axed, but since most of the magazine is less than a year old and only 10 current series sell above 20k (soon to be 9 with WNL leaving) there's a much lower hill to climb to stand out.

And this is why Black Clover will never get the axe 🪓

 

[Ctkk]

Surely Jump is in its Dark Ages right now if anything. The current lineup is the weakest its been since the 70s in regards to successful ongoing hits, ever since 2016 they've been losing more hits than they're getting new ones. And they're losing two more long runners already right at the start of 2021.

Is this so? Someone should make an ongoing hits per year graph or something.

 

[tirakai]

Black Clover does bring up a good point, usually something like that would be a mid-tier kind of manga, a series past its peak and possibly edging towards the bottom. Maybe Dr Stone too, yet it was pretty much the #3 series in the Summer group covers since it was in between Kimetsu, Haikyuu, and Neverland ending and Jujutsu's anime starting.

But due to the magazine's current lineup, those two are permanent top hits right now and that's not going to change any time soon, not unless we get a bunch of Ass Class level instant hits in a row.

 

[DreamcastDazia]

Black Clover does bring up a good point, usually something like that would be a mid-tier kind of manga, a series past its peak and possibly edging towards the bottom. Maybe Dr Stone too, yet it was pretty much the #3 series in the Summer group covers since it was in between Kimetsu, Haikyuu, and Neverland ending and Jujutsu's anime starting.

But due to the magazine's current lineup, those two are permanent top hits right now and that's not going to change any time soon, not unless we get a bunch of Ass Class level instant hits in a row.

Thag has me thinking that it's probably harder for ass class level hits to show up in this day and age. Just seems like a super good anime is pretty much needed for something to blow up now. That wasn't exactly the case in the past am I wrong?

 

[101nemesis]

Thag has me thinking that it's probably harder for ass class level hits to show up in this day and age. Just seems like a super good anime is pretty much needed for something to blow up now. That wasn't exactly the case in the past am I wrong?

Dude. We literally just had SxF explode to 1M sales without an anime, just last year.
Kaiju is tracking to post something along the lines of 200k sales for V1. Who knows, if it has momentum it might reach SxF levels (I doubt it but...I didn't think it'd post 80k in 3 days either) within few volumes.

 

[DreamcastDazia]

Dude. We literally just had SxF explode to 1M sales without an anime, just last year.
Kaiju is tracking to post something along the lines of 200k sales for V1. Who knows, if it has momentum it might reach SxF levels (I doubt it but...I didn't think it'd post 80k in 3 days either) within few volumes.

Not saying its impossible but it seems more unlikely these days is all I'm saying