Summer The Baseball Thread

[Kaiten]

Where do you see your Nats in comparison to the Braves? By the end of the season, you're still picking your Nats to win the division, I'm assuming, or do you think it'll be a tossup by the end?

The Braves can not be properly evaluated right now. They are too hot, and it is too early in the season. Paul Maholm's career ERA is 4.20, with a career 1.39 WHIP. Through 3 games he has not given up an earned run, with a .79 WHIP. Not even Pedro could sustain those numbers. Unless Justin Upton has matured into a cross between Tony Gwynn and Babe Ruth in their primes, he will not continue hitting .348 with an OPS of 1.306. The Braves have a really good team, I fully expect them to contend. If the Nationals bullpen plays to their career average than I do not think the division will be decided until September. Right now though I don't have much more insight than I had before the season started. April does not mean much. Look at the Reds. Last week they were as hot as anyone in baseball. They have since lost five straight, were swept by the Pirates, and had to put Johnny Cueto on the DL.

---------- Post added at 07:01 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:59 PM ----------

I was delighted to see that FOX now includes OPS in their telecast, along with more traditional stats.

 

[FrostyMouse]

I've never taken the Reds seriously, so I'm not surprised though. The Braves still could potentially win 100 games. This is how you have to play if you want to win that games, but unfortunately, most teams who do win 100+ games end up tired out by the end of the season and don't win the WS.

Justin Upton is the new beast. Believe it.

Well, we've learned that signing for the Angels is the death knell for your career if you're starting to get older.

 

[Kaiten]

Take the Reds seriously. They are a very talented team, with the second most wins in the majors last year. They have a few injured players right now, once they are healthy they will be a nightmare. Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Todd Frazier, Brandon Phillips, and Zack Cozart are all outstanding players. Good pitching, and a great bullpen too. They will be in contention this season. I'd say they are better than any AL team, except the Tigers.

The problem with the Braves is that they rely on power, and timely hitting. No one in their lineup really hits for average. They play great defense, and have the best bullpen in baseball. Eric O'Flaherty and Craig Kimbrel are unhittable. If the Braves can take a lead into the eighth, that's the end of it. They are not a 100 win team. They could lose in bunches whenever their hitters go through a slump, this is not a lineup capable of playing small ball. The Nats, Reds, and Giants are all capable of playing small ball if their power ever deserts them. The Braves have good starting pitching, but nothing great. All of their pitchers are "crafty", guys that can hit 90-91mph at best. All of their starters need to be hitting their spots, need a big strike zone, and need to be "on" in every game. If they are not, they are pretty easy to knock around. Their only power pitcher, Brandon Beachy, is recovering from Tommy John. He won't be back until the end of the season. He is their true ace. I think they are a playoff contender, but not a dominant team.

 

[FrostyMouse]

Kaiten, how exactly did you become a Nats fan? You, and everyone else, just adopted them when they moved to the DC area? I trust that you didn't support them when they were in Montreal, right?

 

[Kaiten]

Kaiten, how exactly did you become a Nats fan? You, and everyone else, just adopted them when they moved to the DC area? I trust that you didn't support them when they were in Montreal, right?

It was not like that, not exactly. Nostalgia is an important part of sports, especially for baseball. That's why bandwagon fans are so disliked. Loyalty is something built from a young age. Going to games as a kid, with your family. Watching the game every Sunday. Things like that. For an expansion team, or a relocated franchise, that loyalty has to be earned. Becoming attached to a local team as an adult feels really different than growing up with a team. Sometimes it never happens, no matter how much a team wins. Look at Jacksonville, the Jaguars did not take long to become a winning franchise. Watching the Nationals emerge as a winner was one of the most enjoyable experiences I have ever had as a sports fan. A lot of people in the area would say the same. It was not just about the winning. It's a really likable team, they are fun to root for. It took a while for people to adopt this franchise. The Expos were in disarray when they moved here. The Nationals did not even have an owner for their first season. Until 2008 they were poorly run, signing unlikable players (like Elijah Dukes), and muffing draft picks. Not only were they losing, they were unlikable. That began to change once Mike Rizzo became interim GM. He changed the culture of the team. All of the head cases were gone after 2010, when they finally jettisoned guys like Nyjer Morgan. We're kind of in that comfortable position of rooting for a model franchise. Rizzo has remodeled us into an innovative team. Our training staff even includes a doctor who helps players train the muscles around their eyes. We won't win every season, nobody does. But we can rely on this team doing what it needs to field a winner. It also helps having a young player like Bryce. Don't get it twisted: Strasburg is more hyped nationally, Harper is more popular locally.

Speaking of, he really has not looked great this year. Ignore anyone who calls him an "ace". He's not there yet. It's easy to forget that he is only 24. If it helps parse the bullshit about young pitchers, here is Justin Verlanders career stats: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/verlaju01.shtml

Only two seasons (2011, 2012) with ERA under three. Only three with WAR over 5 (all star level). It's not that easy to become an "ace".

---------- Post added April 26, 2013 at 09:56 PM ---------- Previous post was April 20, 2013 at 01:58 PM ----------

And there you have it, just like that Paul Maholm is back to his career average. In one game he goes from a 1.03 ERA with a .87 WHIP, to 3.30 and 1.20. Detroit just rocked him for 10 H, 8 R, and 3 BB, chasing him from the game after 3.2 innings. Annibal Sanchez with 17 SO after 8 shutout innings. I watched Jordan Zimmermann pitch a masterpiece tonight, a one hit, complete game shut out. Took him only 91 pitches. Second Nats one hitter in a row, both against the Reds. The staff is really starting to pitch well, the bullpen is looking good, and defense coming into shape.

 

[FrostyMouse]

Hmm, I hadn't looked at it like that.

With OKC, even when they were awful, the fans just jumped onto them because they wanted a team and didn't care what it looked like. Then when they started winning, they got more fans.

 

[Kaiten]

OKC? As in the Thunder?

Attendance was very good in 2005, the Nats first season here. People really wanted baseball, they came out and supported the team. Most of that good will was squandered, for the reasons I listed above. People genuinely have come to love this team over the last couple of years. Since Rizzo took over the culture of the franchise really has improved. It's become something of a model franchise, akin to the Giants or Braves. The owner spend money, the farm system is well stocked, good talent has been accumulated. It's a fun team, they've really endeared themselves to the community. It did not hurt that we lucked out in the draft. Not only did we get back to back number one picks, we somehow managed to get Strasburg and Harper in back to back years.

---

Some kind of great pitching night, tonight. Wei-Yin Chen is throwing a 2 hit shut out through eight. He looked a little gassed, but buckled down and got three easy outs in the bottom of the eighth. At 106 pitches it doesn't look like he'll get to pitch the 9th.

 

[FrostyMouse]

OKC? As in the Thunder?

Attendance was very good in 2005, the Nats first season here. People really wanted baseball, they came out and supported the team. Most of that good will was squandered, for the reasons I listed above. People genuinely have come to love this team over the last couple of years. Since Rizzo took over the culture of the franchise really has improved. It's become something of a model franchise, akin to the Giants or Braves. The owner spend money, the farm system is well stocked, good talent has been accumulated. It's a fun team, they've really endeared themselves to the community. It did not hurt that we lucked out in the draft. Not only did we get back to back number one picks, we somehow managed to get Strasburg and Harper in back to back years.

---

Some kind of great pitching night, tonight. Wei-Yin Chen is throwing a 2 hit shut out through eight. He looked a little gassed, but buckled down and got three easy outs in the bottom of the eighth. At 106 pitches it doesn't look like he'll get to pitch the 9th.

---

Yes, as in the Thunder.

Given that I don't currently live in a city that has a team, although I have lived in Boston, what exactly is so important about having a pro team to go watch?

 

[Kaiten]

It's just a different atmosphere at the game. The crowd, the noise, the food, seeing the players in the flesh, getting a better feel for the speed of the game. A home run is even more dramatic in person. Baseball and hockey in particular are more fun in person.

The Sonics were a very different franchise, moving under very different circumstances. Though they were rebuilding at the time, until recently they had been one of the NBA's marquee franchises. Seattle was a basketball city, the Sonics were the only local pro team to ever win a title. Nobody knows why the team was sold to an out of town group, local investors made viable bids. It was well known from the start that Clay Bennett planned on moving the team. He used stadium funding as an excuse to move them, he may or may not have negotiated with the city in bad faith. The team drafted Durant before their last season in Seattle, and were thus able to move with a highly marketable, budding superstar.

The Expos were a historically unstable franchise, with a limited local fan base. They developed some great talent over the years (Gary Carter, Andre Dawson, Pedro, Randy Johnson, Larry Walker, Vlad Guerrero, etc.) but could never afford to resign their own free agents. By the early 2000's, their games were no longer broadcast in English. Then owner Jeffery Loria gutted the team, before selling them back to Major League Baseball, as part of his successful bid to buy the Marlins. Baseball planned to contract the Expos, along with the Minnesota Twins, who successfully sued to prevent contraction. The MLB were thus stuck with the Expos, and began looking into relocation. It took them two years to relocate to DC (they actually played select "home games" in Puerto Rico for a while), and then another year to find owners. The team, which didn't have fans in the first place, was by then gutted, bereft of talent at all levels. While fans were excited for baseball, the team quickly proved not only bad, but often unlikable. Aside from a notable few players like Ryan Zimmerman and Chad Cordero, many of the players they signed were very difficult to like. Surly malcontents, with a number of players getting in legal trouble. For a little perspective, the immortal Nyjer Morgan was a starter during Strasburg's rookie year. Rizzo started clearing those guys as our farm system started producing more talent.

 

[FrostyMouse]

Halladay needs shoulder surgery. He says he may be back before the season's over, but I highly doubt it.

 

[Kaiten]

Removing a bone spur is a relatively minor procedure. If he were 29, or 32, he'd probably come back this season. At 35 it's not as promising. Who knows. It's not like he fully tore his rotator cuff. This is not the same surgery Johan Santana had. His career really is done. Even though he plays for the Phillies, I wish Doc all the best. One of the best over the last ten years, and one of the all time great sinker ball pitchers. Even more impressive when you consider he pitched most of his career in the steroid era. A first ballot hall of famer, without a doubt.

 

[FrostyMouse]

That is why I said that I figured his season was over.

You're assuming, of course, Kaiten, that Doc never used the juice, even if just to help heal an injury. At this point, I never know what to think as so many players who you'd never think would use steroids did use steroids.

 

[Kaiten]

He was always to lumpy looking. Not a steroid physique. Same with Pedro. I doubt Griffey juiced either.

Jordan Zimmermann just carved up the Tigers. 7 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 7 SO on 101 pitches. Bottom of the seventh, the Nats are into the Tigers bullpen. This was the first run Zimmerman allowed in 20 innings, and the first time he allowed a base runner past second in that time.

---------- Post added at 10:52 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:02 PM ----------

Good game for Harper tonight too. 1-3, 2 RBI, 1 HR, 1 SF. He had been slumping a little, good to see.

 

[FrostyMouse]

As far as I know, using steroids to hasten the healing process doesn't give you a steroid body. The truth, and it's a sad truth, is that, at this point, you have to question every star athlete in baseball.

I don't think Doc ever used steroids, but that's not the point.

 

[Kaiten]

Baseball test now. If you have to question baseball, you have to question all sports. I am most suspicious of the sports that never suspend anyone for steroids.

 

[FrostyMouse]

Baseball test now. If you have to question baseball, you have to question all sports. I am most suspicious of the sports that never suspend anyone for steroids.

I was going to say, "then you have to question all star athletes," but I figured that that sounded too jaded. Yes, you do have to wonder about basketball.

 

[xi0]

Yeah, but we're talking about Baseball...

Anyways, I remember back when testing first got stricter, with harsher penalties. A lot of the positives seemed to be pitchers, shedding new light on the use of PDEs. You always assumed some hulking monster to be taking them.

 

[FrostyMouse]

Yeah, but we're talking about Baseball...

Anyways, I remember back when testing first got stricter, with harsher penalties. A lot of the positives seemed to be pitchers, shedding new light on the use of PDEs. You always assumed some hulking monster to be taking them.

Yeah, and that's what I was implying about Doc, Gary. Any pitcher who was awesome in the steroid era must raise eyebrows.

 

[xi0]

Yeah, and that's what I was implying about Doc, Gary. Any pitcher who was awesome in the steroid era must raise eyebrows.

It's not necessarily steroids for recovering from an injury either. There's HGH likely involved as well. Steroids can add bulk, sure. But a lot of people cycle on and off of it to stay stronger and fresh through the season. It's a grind man, and everyone gets worn down here and there. Using PDEs the right way reduces these lulls.

 

[FrostyMouse]

It's not necessarily steroids for recovering from an injury either. There's HGH likely involved as well. Steroids can add bulk, sure. But a lot of people cycle on and off of it to stay stronger and fresh through the season. It's a grind man, and everyone gets worn down here and there. Using PDEs the right way reduces these lulls.

I was just including everything under the lump sum of PEDs.

We know a lot of potential HoF pitchers have used PEDs.