Theory Final Tournament Line-up Discussion/Predictions

[Hardy]

S3 Sanada
D2 Tanegashima/Shiraishi
S2 Kintarou
D1 Byoudouin/Tezuka
S1 Oni

I'm having a really hard time imagining Byoudouin in doubles (and playing with Tezuka, which I assume is a typo for Fuji )

Tane/Shiraishi could work, didn't think about it, but I don't see Shiraishi playing in such an important match.

 

[Kaoz]

I'm having a really hard time imagining Byoudouin in doubles (and playing with Tezuka, which I assume is a typo for Fuji )

You didn't see that.

And well, Tezuka played "doubles" against Shitenhouji. Byoudouin seemed like he was set to play doubles against Volk in the Pre-WC. Honestly, if it wasn't for those two things, I probably wouldn't even entertain the possibility myself.

Tane/Shiraishi could work, didn't think about it, but I don't see Shiraishi playing in such an important match.

Who do you have him against then? Aramenoma or France?

 

[Hardy]

You didn't see that.

I did not '-'

Byoudouin seemed like he was set to play doubles against Volk in the Pre-WC.

Oh I didn't think about this. Yeah, at some parts of NPoT we had fake "doubles" too (like Ohmagari and Tanegashima taking turns), I just didn't imagine that happenning so late in the series.

Who do you have him against then? Aramenoma or France?

Tbh I don't have anything, lmao. Wish we'd know the rules asap.

That said, I feel Shiraishi and Mouri will play in the near future. If Aramenoma is too little of an "epic country" for them to have their final match in the tournament, then it'll be France.

The epic thing is more about Shiraishi being sort of a fan favourite than Mouri.

--- Double Post Merged, Sep 30, 2017, Original Post Date: Sep 30, 2017 ---

Kaoz, was thinking about it, any chance Aramenoma somehow injures half of Japan's roster before the match? (Like Akutsu forcing Fudo's car crash).

--- Double Post Merged, Sep 30, 2017 ---

Double "was thinking about it", any chance the rules are like this?:

R1 and QFs: You cannot repeat a player in these line-ups.
-The count "resets".
SFs and Finals: You cannot repeat a player in these line-ups.

If we think this was a HSers tournament only (and we still think they were only 14 last year or at most 20 as we've seen) would this make any sense?

 

[Kaoz]

That said, I feel Shiraishi and Mouri will play in the near future. If Aramenoma is too little of an "epic country" for them to have their final match in the tournament, then it'll be France.

Yeah, in general I agree. As you probably noticed over in the other thread, most of my line-up prediction against Aramenoma consists of players that didn't play at all in the group league or had little focus during their match, Atobe being the obvious exception. I just like Shiraishi as Tanegashima's partner and Tanegashima himself strikes me as one of the more likely doubles candidates among the top guys.

Do you feel Shiraishi is more likely to be in doubles or more likely to be in singles? I can't really see him playing singles against Germany, but I think it could happen if he is in either of the first two rounds.

Kaoz, was thinking about it, any chance Aramenoma somehow injures half of Japan's roster before the match? (Like Akutsu forcing Fudo's car crash).

Honestly, I don't think so. I guess I should post some more thoughts on Aramenoma over in the other thread soon to explain what I expect from them, but they don't strike me as that kind of team.

If we think this was a HSers tournament only (and we still think they were only 14 last year or at most 20 as we've seen) would this make any sense?

Yeah, it would. I do have a counter argument though. Not sure if you remember, but quite some time ago, someone (unfortunately don't remember who, my apologies to that person) theorized that in previous years, the 1st court players would get added to the 1st string for these tournaments, resulting in the same 28 player roster we have now. Especially since, if we assume that the rules this time are similar to past WCs, teams already needed 21 players for the group league.

(On a side note, I don't think there was a "last year." It seems to me that there's only a WC every other year; maybe they have an Asia Cup or something in the years during which there's no WC though.)

 

[ChinkyCandie]

I think the team against Aramenoma would be people who haven't played yet. Mouri/Marui would be a good team. Two red-head doubles specialist. Characters like Kimijima, maybe Shiraishi, maybe Date, Niou, and maybe Hakamada. Although I don't think we'll ever see Date and Hakamada or Nakagauchi ever play a match ever again.
D2: 2 redheads. They win. Doubles 1: Niou/Shiraishi. They win. Singles 3: Kimijima. He wins. Date and Hakamada don't have to play.

In regards to Byodoin, if he were to play doubles, it should be with the strongest MSer (is it still Yukimura? Or Atobe since they're both team captains), not Fuji. Sure Fuji got along with Duke, doesn't mean he'll get along with Byodoin.

 

[Kaoz]

Well, for starters that scenario is impossible because that's not how the bracket's worked out. The semis are going to be USA vs Switzerland and Japan vs Germany.

--- Double Post Merged, Oct 1, 2017, Original Post Date: Oct 1, 2017 ---

I think the team against Aramenoma would be people who haven't played yet. Mouri/Marui would be a good team. Two red-head doubles specialist. Characters like Kimijima, maybe Shiraishi, maybe Date, Niou, and maybe Hakamada. Although I don't think we'll ever see Date and Hakamada or Nakagauchi ever play a match ever again.

Yeah. I think most of the characters vs Aramenoma are going to come from this player pool:

Spoiler

Kimijima
Mouri
Irie
Date
Nakagauchi
Hakamada

Shiraishi
Marui
Niou
Kirihara

Marui, Mouri and Kimijima are pretty much shoe-ins in my mind, I feel Kimijima in particular will be very interesting. None of those guys besides Irie is really S1 or captain material though, so I'm expecting Irie and/or someone not on the list to assume that position. Personally, I could see Atobe working well since he is the MS captain and this would be a great time to show it off, and also because of how he did against Australia. Niou and then one of Shiraishi/Akaya would round out the line-up.

I agree at this point that Date, Hakamada and Nakagauchi won't get a turn, but if they only need 21 players total at most, there's no reason to even put them in the line-up, really.

In regards to Byodoin, if he were to play doubles, it should be with the strongest MSer (is it still Yukimura? Or Atobe since they're both team captains), not Fuji. Sure Fuji got along with Duke, doesn't mean he'll get along with Byodoin.

Ordinarily, yes. But the general consensus seems to be that Fuji's going to take on Tezuka and it would make sense for Byoudouin to play Volk. So if Volk and Tezuka play doubles together, it's not unreasonable to think of Byoudouin/Fuji for Japan.

There's also another reason why it's less likely for Byoudouin/Atobe or Byoudouin/Yukimura to go up against a Volk/Tezuka doubles (even though I'd be excited to see the latter): in the Pre-WC, Atobe faced Tezuka and Yukimura faced Volk, and as I mentioned in an earlier post, in rematches repeat match-ups are a rarity.

Kaoz, was thinking about it, any chance Aramenoma somehow injures half of Japan's roster before the match? (Like Akutsu forcing Fudo's car crash).

Also, going back to this for a second, it didn't really register yesterday, but I never thought Akutsu had anything to do with the car getting into an accident. He just happened to know about it, nothing more.

 

[Hardy]

Well, for starters that scenario is impossible because that's not how the bracket's worked out. The semis are going to be USA vs Switzerland and Japan vs Germany.

--- Double Post Merged, Oct 1, 2017, Original Post Date: Oct 1, 2017 ---

Yeah. I think most of the characters vs Aramenoma are going to come from this player pool:

Spoiler

Kimijima
Mouri
Irie
Date
Nakagauchi
Hakamada

Shiraishi
Marui
Niou
Kirihara

Marui, Mouri and Kimijima are pretty much shoe-ins in my mind, I feel Kimijima in particular will be very interesting. None of those guys besides Irie is really S1 or captain material though, so I'm expecting Irie and/or someone not on the list to assume that position. Personally, I could see Atobe working well since he is the MS captain and this would be a great time to show it off, and also because of how he did against Australia. Niou and then one of Shiraishi/Akaya would round out the line-up.

I agree at this point that Date, Hakamada and Nakagauchi won't get a turn, but if they only need 21 players total at most, there's no reason to even put them in the line-up, really.



Ordinarily, yes. But the general consensus seems to be that Fuji's going to take on Tezuka and it would make sense for Byoudouin to play Volk. So if Volk and Tezuka play doubles together, it's not unreasonable to think of Byoudouin/Fuji for Japan.

There's also another reason why it's less likely for Byoudouin/Atobe or Byoudouin/Yukimura to go up against a Volk/Tezuka doubles (even though I'd be excited to see the latter): in the Pre-WC, Atobe faced Tezuka and Yukimura faced Volk, and as I mentioned in an earlier post, in rematches repeat match-ups are a rarity.



Also, going back to this for a second, it didn't really register yesterday, but I never thought Akutsu had anything to do with the car getting into an accident. He just happened to know about it, nothing more.

Too lazy in bed to properly reply the rest '-' but IIRC, at least in the anime, Akutsu left a box of kittens in the middle of the road so that the taxi would avoid it and crash.

Your list seems quite good btw ^^ Tbh I could see Date and Hakamada getting smashed offscreen to hype an opponent (and Nakagauchi playing doubles).

--- Double Post Merged, Oct 1, 2017 ---

Uhm, question, why Kirihara is in the list (considering he did have a match) and not Gin/Duke and Kite/Ohmagari?

 

[Kaoz]

IIRC, at least in the anime, Akutsu left a box of kittens in the middle of the road so that the taxi would avoid it and crash.

No. Even in the anime there's just a kitten in a box on the sidewalk and the kitten happens to run over the road as the taxi comes by. At that moment, Akutsu is quite a bit away on the other side on the road. There's no way he could've known when the kitten would jump out or influenced it from where he was. He just happened to see the incident, saying he caused it seems farfetched.

Tbh I could see Date and Hakamada getting smashed offscreen to hype an opponent (and Nakagauchi playing doubles).

If we suppose they had to use 28 players, then sure. But why would they if there's only 21 slots (or even less in your scenario) and they're the three least important guys? Including them means excluding one of the stronger HSers.

Uhm, question, why Kirihara is in the list (considering he did have a match) and not Gin/Duke and Kite/Ohmagari?

Because Kite and Gin at least did a little bit on-screen whereas Akaya didn't. We know he closed out the match against Greece, but it was off-screen and he didn't do anything nor was he implied to have gotten anything we hadn't seen before. Well, you could add those guys though, I wouldn't be able to find any fault with that. I just tried to narrow it down as much as possible.

 

[ChinkyCandie]

Players who haven't played yet will play Aramenoma (or whoever their first round opponents is). Against France, definitely Duke. Maybe even Tokugawa since he was from there for awhile although he should defeat a pro. Against Germany: Oni, Irie, Fuji + whoever. Would you think QP has Oni's data? I mean even the U-17 Camp coaches didn't. He would be a wildcard.
Save Byodoin, Tanegashima, Atobe for the finals.

Oni/Fuji doubles would be interesting. Even Irie/Fuji. I don't think Byodoin will play against Germany. Unfortunately, Ryoma still (I think) wants to defeat him. Byodoin is too strong for him. Switzerland will still be a better final matchup. Byodoin vs Amadeus >>>>> Ryoma vs Byodoin.

 

[Kaoz]

Duke playing France is likely, but I don't think he'd go up against Camus anymore. It would make sense if he did, but Duke just doesn't really matter enough for such a big match. Giving it to Tokugawa seems more probable in that regard, although I wouldn't completely rule out Atobe (avenge England... again) and Kintarou (if Ryoma plays Medanore) either. I feel like Duke might play someone who actually hates him for switching teams, something Camus didn't seem to.

Would you think QP has Oni's data? I mean even the U-17 Camp coaches didn't. He would be a wildcard.

He should have some from the previous WC and Tezuka probably told him a thing or two considering he trained with Oni on 5th court. We know that QP accounts for blank times in his data, so it depends on how well he can extrapolate from those data points. Considering his position he might be pretty skilled at it, so going by that, I reckon Irie is a bigger wild card than Oni.

Also, I still don't see Oni in doubles, if he was a passable doubles player he would've been chosen for the Pre-WC over Duke. In fact I'm not sure we're even going to see Oni play before the finals. Even if makes a line-up, he can just sit in S1 again and not play provided Japan wins in 3 or 4 matches.

 

[ChinkyCandie]

Also, I still don't see Oni in doubles, if he was a passable doubles player he would've been chosen for the Pre-WC over Duke. In fact I'm not sure we're even going to see Oni play before the finals. Even if makes a line-up, he can just sit in S1 again and not play provided Japan wins in 3 or 4 matches.

Oni can be put in singles 1 in each match but never plays so he finally ends up playing in the finals.
I honestly don't think Ryoma is strong enough to take out any Swiss HSer, most of all Amadeus. I honestly don't want him to defeat Byodoin either because we know how it will end (too predictable). Henri would probably be enough trouble for Ryoma. I'm not even sure if Ralph will be able to defeat Amadeus. The only way US > Switzerland would be if Amadeus + Swiss' best players don't play. Amadeus would expect Byodoin to make the final and save himself for that. Unfortunately, that may not happen

 

[Kaoz]

I have little doubt that Ryoga is stronger than Amadeus. Also, Henri is nowhere near Ryoma's level. I'm pretty sure we discussed a few months ago that Henri is Sanada level at best, but Ryoma's much, much stronger than that at this point. At least in singles he'd probably defeat Henri pretty easily.

 

[ChinkyCandie]

Can't say that yet until we see Henri play in singles. But he seems to be a doubles specialist. Maybe playing singles is his weakness.

What about Amadeus/Henri vs Ryoga/Ryoma?

 

[Hardy]

Even if we consider that Ryoma cant play doubles for shit, I believe that match up is heavily one sided for the US.

Obando/Ryoma might be more interesting.

What did Henri show for you to think he is a doubles specialist btw?

 

[ChinkyCandie]

Wasn't he and Peter called the best doubles in Switzerland? Something along those lines.

 

[Hardy]

You're right actually:

Henri's nickname is the Noble Youth whereas Peter is known as the Personification of Talent. Together, they are the most valuable doubles pair in the Swiss tennis world.

Sorry Kaoz for the random quote lol.

In any case, their playstyle didn't seem to be heavily focused on combinations nor anything like that. They wouldn't be the "most valuable singles players" in Switzerland, but they'd remain up there. There was nothing shown that could indicate that he wouldn't be as skilled in singles (not even his court coverage).

 

[ChinkyCandie]

It did seem like Henri would defeat Kite in singles as Henri quickly figured out his weaknesses.

 

[Drv]

I really want to see more of Ryoga-I want to see him play with and against Ryoma. He deserves more character development and spotlight- it'd be great if he gets more opportunity to show off his abilities.

Is it even likely at this point for Echizen to rejoin the Japanese team? Whether it's him setting his sight on a stronger player than Byoudouin or it's resolved down the line/ US team loses...
It doesn't sit well with me that he is competing with his former team mates & U17 camp mates. lol

 

[Kaoz]

Is it even likely at this point for Echizen to rejoin the Japanese team?

Yes, it is. His name's on the Japanese selection list for a reason and there's a part of him that wants to go back too. It's possible that both are fake-outs, sure, but when everything's said and done, both Ryoma and Japan winning the tournament is the most likely outcome.

--- Double Post Merged, Nov 8, 2017, Original Post Date: Oct 4, 2017 ---

So, with the latest developments, there are a few more points I want to bring up for discussion:

(1) Since we have a refilled roster of 28 players, suppose that every player is not allowed to play more than one match in the remaining four rounds. Wouldn't this make the additional limitation that there must be at least three middle schoolers on any given team composition unnecessary? That rule was added, so that teams couldn't just rely on their high schoolers to get through the group league, but if everyone has to play a match anyway, that's no longer a concern.

As a supporting point, so far we've only seen high school players from the US and when we saw seven players of the French team during the Pre-WC (ch 151), they also looked to me like they were all high schoolers.

(2) If (1) is true and given which characters Konomi has shown of the likely opponents so far, do you think France and the US might face Japan with all-HS teams? This isn't completely outrageous for America, if they can get to the finals while saving their strongest players, more power to them. But how could it even remotely be justified to have France use Camus (and Spain Medanore on the other side) in the 2nd round of the tournament under these circumstances?

(3) Could it be that while we refilled the team rosters, the rules will still only prevent players from participating in more than one match during the first three rounds, with everyone being available again for the finals? In that case, adding replacements would only be a precaution on the off-chance that all other 21 players get injured during the first three rounds, and it would obviously negate the concerns raised in (1) and (2).

Any thoughts on this?

 

[ChinkyCandie]

I feel like you are rostered to play a match but you don't play it since your team wins before you get to play. You can still be elected to play another match until you actually and physically play a match.
Japan has quite a few useless players right now. If Airgrimes was here, he wouldn't be that happy about it. I remember him complaining about Kirihara, Date, Hakamada, and Nakagauchi. I think Oishi too.