Mag Talk Weekly Shonen Jump [2021] - Discussion and ToC Talk

[Shinuki no Reborn]

3 out of 6 days, if we get a 4th day, Yozakura has a chance to get a 5th week! i thought it was done for now lol

 

[Mammo]

Audience and passiveness.

Jump's circulation keeps decreasing by every quarter, which means less and less people read the magazine now, which is obviously logical to happen given the amount of juggernauts the magazine doesn't have anymore. The issue with this is that, what you'd find logical to do in this situation is to release new and appealing stuff that can take over the place of those already finished series. But instead, and for some reason, we have kept getting serializations that keep dragging on without any sings of improvement be it on popularity or sales. And yeah, I'm referring here to the U19 meme and how keeping that quick and aggresive system could be actually better for a magazine that needs attractive series that reanimate its current state. The fact that as of now we have series that are going for 4, 5 or 6 volumes showing no actual sign of catching wider audiences just means there will be less new serializations that could try to recover that audience. That is, the longer you keep a series/product already known by your audience, the quicker the interest of the magazine will be lost. You can't just force your audience to read something for 40 chapters until it finally ends. The audience will reduce their interest to just a few series that they may be able to skim without even buying the magazine, and call it a day.

Is letting series stay for a good while to see if they improve something that could actually work? Yeah, but I don't think it has been working at all, and results and numbers are clear proof of it. I think it's completely plausible to be more aggresive, to cancel stuff that doesn't show any signs of improvement by its second volume. No need to go all tryhard and have everything U19'd, but just keep stuff that actually gathers interest.

The best example you can put here is Jump+, a platform that has both hits and flops, since Kaijuu and SPYxFAMILY are not the only series on the platform, and there's quite a lot of content that's appalling. But the difference relies in that there's a frequency of new serializations, and that is new series every single month. The audience in the platform knows that, even if 4 out of the 5 series from X month are bad, Y month will bring 3 new series which may have something they may enjoy, and hence the platform maintains a value the magazine doesn't by overextending series. People may not remember, but J+ has a lot of its juggernauts also ending soon (Jigokuraku, Abyss Rage, Boukyaku Battery, Akuma no Memumemu-chan...), but given the platform keeps releasing new and constant content, I think the transition will be way easier.

Of course the argument of they can't be picky because they're losing big series exists, but I just think that's more of a reason to keep trying new stuff. And honestly, we have examples already of series that are successfully landing to discard the idea of needing God knows how many volumes until the series show results or end.

I think the idea of "waiting" is something that could work in a few cases, but still it won't make up for how the magazine currently is, which is just losing more veteran series and losing an audience that may not stay with the current content it offers. And saying just serialize actual good stuff is an easy and stupid answer to the problem. Bring new content, and try new stuff. Even if you end up becoming some kind of revolving door, it's just what I think the magazine needs until it finds stability.

I agree with you completely, I wanted to write about this for sometime now

I'll bring the card before someone does.
Other than a drop in standards (Remember when we mocked the 40k club?),

remember when World Trigger sold +100k during anime run and people called it a flop and demand its axing?

Red Sprite had the "Its replacing Bleach" thing going on in the internet at the time

those youtubers are still considered "shonen jump insiders" and "credible leakers" to this very day
#boycottshonenjump

Decent hold for everything nameworthy except for Ghost Girl. I'm pretty bummed out to see it tanking as badly as it is since I thought it was both well-drawn and funny.

Viz curse is super strong
pass on Saiki Kusou and pick up Barrage
pass on AssClass and pick up Takamagahara
pass on Food Wars and pick up Cross Manage
pass on HeroAca and Pick up Hi Fi Cluster
pick up Red Sprite and Love Rush and put them as equal to Neverland
mocks Kimetsu requests and says it has no fans
mocks JJK requests, Viz can't even remember if they did a Jump start for it or not
build the entire marketing around Kenshin sequel
pass on Kaijuu, let Mediabang license it, and picks up Ghost Girl

the writing was on the wall, they are incredibly out of touch

 

[savethecat]

As far as I understand, if a series is equal to or above 10K of sales, it is safe. It is not considered a success but is saved.
As magu and roboko are comedies it is good to sell above 10K. I don't remember a gag with Roboko selling that much.
I didn't follow PSI kusuo so I don't know what his sales were like.

Phantom seer in theory is bad, but there have been complaints about lack of stock, I personally will wait to see if there are reprints as it happened with Magu chan and roboko.

While is true, it should be noted that Jump+ has now had two massive first week sales for vol 1s in the span of 2 years. Which is something Jump hasn’t had for a while.

I’m not a marketing expert. And I’m sure a large contribution to this is Jump Plus being a free online platform, with a different audience. But it does seem like Jump is having an issue with their standards for a hit going so low imo.

 

[Newkerzy]

While is true, it should be noted that Jump+ has now had two massive first week sales for vol 1s in the span of 2 years. Which is something Jump hasn’t had for a while.

I’m not a marketing expert. And I’m sure a large contribution to this is Jump Plus being a free online platform, with a different audience. But it does seem like Jump is having an issue with their standards for a hit going so low imo.

The million-dollar debate surrounding J+ hits have been this: how much of the main magazine factor into their serialization in J+? Are these serializations caused by the main magazine passing them over because of a lack of confidence in them? Or are they passing them over to J+ so they can honestly grow the platform?

If it’s the former, then that’s a stunning show of ineptitude and oversight on the editors’ part.

 

[Shinuki no Reborn]

And with that, 2020 is finished in our polls too, the thread for the issue #1 will be open this Sunday, thanks for your votes!

MANGAHELPERS POLL ISSUE #52 (2020) - VOTING RESULTS

1. Undead Unluck 42 - 88 J-Points
2. My Hero Academia - 82 J-Points
3. Sakamoto Days 2 - 81 J-Points
4. One Piece 997 - 55 J-Points
5. Jujutsu Kaisen 131 - 54 J-Points
6. Chainsaw Man 95 - 54 J-Points
7. Mashle 41 - 43 J-Points
8. Spy x Family 37 - 39 J-Points
9. Ayakashi Triangle 23 - 39 J-Points
10. Magu-chan: God of Destruction 22 - 37 J-Points
11. Black Clover 273 - 36 J-Points
12. Kaiju No.8 18 - 29 J-Points
13. Phantom Seer 14 - 27 J-Points
14. Mission: Yozakura Family 61 - 22 J-Points
15. Dr. Stone 176 - 17 J-Points
16. Hard-Boiled Cop and Dolphin 21 - 15 J-Points
17. Build King 3 - 15 J-Points
18. Agravity Boys 46 - 14 J-Points
19. We Never Learn 184 - 12 J-Points
20. Jigokuraku 120 - 9 J-Points
21. Kokosei Kazoku 16 - 8 J-Points
22. Ghost Reaper Girl Extra Chapter - 6 J-Points
23. Excuse Me Dentist, It's Touching Me! 14 - 4 J-Points
24. Bokura no Ketsumei 12 - 3 J-Points
25. Moriking 30 - 0 J-Points
26. Me & Roboco 20 - 0 J-Points
27. World's End Harem: Britannia Lumiére 17 - 0 J-Points

Notes:

-36 Poll Voters + 23 Comment Voters
-Tied mangas decided by which is older
-Total number of votes is the combined between both polls

 

[savethecat]

The million-dollar debate surrounding J+ hits have been this: how much of the main magazine factor into their serialization in J+? Are these serializations caused by the main magazine passing them over because of a lack of confidence in them? Or are they passing them over to J+ so they can honestly grow the platform?

If it’s the former, then that’s a stunning show of ineptitude and oversight on the editors’ part.

I highly doubt Jump+ series are series that were passed over by WSJ.

Jump+ is likely a very appealing platform for mangaka, and probably more comfortable to work in over WSJ. Sure cancellations are still a thing.
But there appears to be more flexible scheduling, and more creative freedom.

For example, I’m almost certain that Kafka from Kaiju No.8 would definitely be aged down if it were a WSJ series. Maybe not a teenager, but definitely a young adult around 18-20 at the very least.
I’d imagine having his protagonist in his early 30s maybe important to the mangaka, as he’s likely in that age range himself, and is likely writing the character from a place of relatability.

Even though WSJ has 50+ years of history, I think it’s plausible that Jump Plus is just the more attractive platform right now. With digital manga/comics and WEBTOON format becoming bigger each year, and Jump+ Continuing to collect successes, I’m willing to bet that 5-6 years from now Jump+ maybe be a bigger platform than WSJ

Especially with One Piece probably ending in the next 5 years

 

[Newkerzy]

I highly doubt Jump+ series are series that were passed over by WSJ.

Jump+ is likely a very appealing platform for mangaka, and probably more comfortable to work in over WSJ. Sure cancellations are still a thing.
But there appears to be more flexible scheduling, and more creative freedom.

For example, I’m almost certain that Kafka from Kaiju No.8 would definitely be ages down if it were a WSJ series. Maybe no to a teenager, but definitely a young adult around 18-20 at the very least.
I’d imagine having his protagonist in his early 30s maybe important to the mangaka, as he’s likely in that age range himself, and is likely writing the character from a place of relatability.

Even though WSJ has 50+ years of history, I think it’s plausible that Jump Plus is just the more attractive platform right now. With digital manga/comics and WEBTOON format becoming bigger each year, and Jump+ Continuing to collect successes, I’m willing to bet that 5-6 years from now Jump+ maybe be a bigger platform than WSJ

Especially with One Piece probably ending in the next 5 years

Another added bonus is, it greatly cuts down piracy/leaks. By cutting out the distribution process in the middle and delivering it straight to readers, leaks are no longer a problem. We all know the reason why we keep getting leaks, and that’s due to the holes in the distribution process that Jump has largely ignored up until now.

Plus, it’s free. And so far, it hasn’t hurt sales in the process as we can see with SxF and 8Kaijuu.

 

[Franz]

What are your predictions for best selling mangas of 2021? I have problems ranking 8 to 10...

1. Kimetsu no Yaiba
2. Jujutsu Kaisen
3. Kingdom
4. One Piece
5. Spy x Family
6. My Hero Academia
7. Attack on Titan
8. Kaijuu 8 (Not sure)
9. Tokyo Revengers (Not sure)
10. Fire Force (Not sure)

Fire Force I would say that this year the chance to finish in the top is at stake.

For the rest it is still too early to establish anything .........

 

[susanoo13]

What are your predictions for best selling mangas of 2021? I have problems ranking 8 to 10...

1. Kimetsu no Yaiba
2. Jujutsu Kaisen
3. Kingdom
4. One Piece
5. Spy x Family
6. My Hero Academia
7. Attack on Titan
8. Kaijuu 8 (Not sure)
9. Tokyo Revengers (Not sure)
10. Fire Force (Not sure)

My guess is :

1. One Piece (With 4 volumes)
2. Jujutsu Kaisen
3. Kimetsu no Yaiba
4. Kingdom
5. Attack on Titan (Backlogging now that the series is over)
6. My Hero Academia
7. Spy x Family
8. Kaijuu 8
9. Shangri-La Frontier
10. Tokyo Revengers (Assuming it's anime will premiere by Summer at the latest)

 

[Griff]

My guess is :

1. One Piece (With 4 volumes)
2. Jujutsu Kaisen
3. Kimetsu no Yaiba
4. Kingdom
5. Attack on Titan (Backlogging now that the series is over)
6. My Hero Academia
7. Spy x Family
8. Kaijuu 8
9. Shangri-La Frontier
10. Tokyo Revengers (Assuming it's anime will premiere by Summer at the latest)

There's literally no way KNY doesn't end #1... The manga will sell easily over 25m again.

 

[TyVip]

It is TOO EARLY to be doing a top 10 but I just want to point something

Kimetsu will be #1 again unless JJK or something else next year blow up exponentially
The final volume volume will sell like 5 million copies or more in the next 50 weeks (or however many weeks left until November 30, 2021)

which means the backlog just need to do 10 million for an easy 15 million copies+ sell (ofc the number will be more lol)
There are 3 series during Oricon record that sell over 15 million copies in a year, it's not a number that can be easily beaten
Current Kimetsu is doing 1 mil/week, so that would be easy 10 weeks in and out adventure

4 volumes + backlog One Piece nowadays do 10 million~11 million, unless people buy Volume 100 in waves (just look at 2019 One Piece sales)
Also @Griff (tagging you since you originally ask the question), you are sleeping on 4 volumes One Piece/year lol. Only Kimetsu was able to beat it in 2019, if one piece releases the 4th one this year Kingdom wouldn't be able to beat it.

best time to ask this question would be after the half year comes out in May

 

[SiMidori]

What are your predictions for best selling mangas of 2021? I have problems ranking 8 to 10...

1. Kimetsu no Yaiba
2. Jujutsu Kaisen
3. Kingdom
4. One Piece
5. Spy x Family
6. My Hero Academia
7. Attack on Titan
8. Kaijuu 8 (Not sure)
9. Tokyo Revengers (Not sure)
10. Fire Force (Not sure)

I agree with the 6 first position, maybe One Piece 3th if there is 4 volumes
Attack on Titan : it depends on what the anime can do to help and with 1 or 2 volumes left it's gonna be hard (if the backlogs is not strong enough)
I don't see Kaiju 8 making the top,
Same for Tokyo Revengers
maybe Fire Force yes,


Series (?) :
The promised Neverland and
Quintessentials quintuplets with theirs anime alone ? why not
maybe Dr. Stone
One Punch Man, there are so much chapters waiting to be released in a volume..

 

[Mammo]

not only KnY, but looking at how well Kimetsu spinoff is selling, I'll be surprised if it doesn't get a long running spinoff next year that will dominate the sales too

anyhow... it's too early for predictions for that reasons, some new manga that don't exist yet could just explode

seeing the members posts, surprised by the lack of Reincarnated slime, it have a new season coming up right? it will make the list, same with Kaguya-sama

regarding stuff that could grow with anime, I'm going with Kemono Jihen, it's a 30k club member, if the anime could just rise the sales to 90k it could get in

 

[Franz]

1. One Piece (With 4 volumes)

There is no way that One Piece can return to being first.

Kimetsu already alone with the sales this month will be first, One Piece should have a scary recovery to reach him .....

 

[Mankichi Togawa]

Regarding WSM titles If A Couple of Cuckoos gets anime announcement early in 2021 it could have a chance. Somehow I see it with more chances than Fire Force.

Basically there are going to be only 3 open slots in 2021 Top-10, but these 2 of these 3 spots are from anime that are getting season 2 on 2021 (but already had the final volume released). Dunno. Since Slime is getting a new anime season I can see it coming back to top-10, maybe Tokyo Revengers too. And I also can see Kaijuu 8 getting a spot in 2021 the same way SpyxFamily got one in 2020.

 

[c3pman]

Ghost Reaper Girl deserved better... good art and pretty entertaining... I didn't expect it to be a big hit, but tanking that much is painful...

 

[susanoo13]

There is no way that One Piece can return to being first.

Kimetsu already alone with the sales this month will be first, One Piece should have a scary recovery to reach him .....

I can totally see where you're coming from, and very much everybody. If I would predict the numbers roughly it would be like this :

1. One Piece - 10.5M with 4 Volumes and a small backlog after Vol. 100 hits the shelves
2. Jujutsu gaining 5.5 Million more in backlogs and selling 4 more volumes with 900K getting to 9M
3. Kimetsu's final volume selling 4.75M and has a backlog of 4M
4. Kingdom reaching the same sales as this year. No anime increase
5. Attack on Titan selling 4M with it's final 2 volumes and has a backlog of 2.5-3M
6. My Hero Academia selling 6M including backlogs from both the season and the movie.
7. Spy X Family selling 4.5M with 3 volumes going at selling 1.1M and a backlog of 1.2M(I don't know if it's even possible)

The rest I really have no Idea but Mammo also made 2 good points about a sleeper hit yet to be published and Tensura which I can also easily see taking any spot between 8th to 10th. I do want to see some Kodansh(besides Shingeki) or even Shogakukan on the list.

 

[ItsSamu]

This talk of the current standards of first volume sales for new series has me thinking how different Burn the Witch was from everything else this year. Of course it's from a renowned veteran and received lots of promotion in its short run so far, that definitely plays a large part. But seeing how the one shot was popular enough to secure that continuation and an anime from the off-set and it went on to sell over 205k (or more?) within the first month, that technically puts it as the 5th best-selling (per volume, if you also include Hunter x Hunter to be fair) in the magazine from next week onwards once Chainsaw Man ends, which is wild.

I imagine if they could they would absolutely make this a weekly series - the only thing holding them back most likely is Kubo. Not only that, now we know they advertised Burn the Witch Season 2 in the magazine without Kubo knowing in order to make it seem like to was coming sooner than later. Things would probably simpler if Burn the Witch was a regular series.

I can totally see where you're coming from, and very much everybody. If I would predict the numbers roughly it would be like this :

1. One Piece - 10.5M with 4 Volumes and a small backlog after Vol. 100 hits the shelves
2. Jujutsu gaining 5.5 Million more in backlogs and selling 4 more volumes with 900K getting to 9M
3. Kimetsu's final volume selling 4.75M and has a backlog of 4M
4. Kingdom reaching the same sales as this year. No anime increase
5. Attack on Titan selling 4M with it's final 2 volumes and has a backlog of 2.5-3M
6. My Hero Academia selling 6M including backlogs from both the season and the movie.
7. Spy X Family selling 4.5M with 3 volumes going at selling 1.1M and a backlog of 1.2M(I don't know if it's even possible)

Demon Slayer will probably have enough sales from its final volume and its backlog by January to cement it getting the top spot again. And if a second season is announced/starts later in the year? Expect another boost in sales across the backlog. Compared to the first season, the rest of the series has many more hype moments that could get the episode 19 treatment and give a domino effect of sales boosts for the next several years until the adaptation is complete.

 

[Rouk']

1. One Piece - 10.5M with 4 Volumes and a small backlog after Vol. 100 hits the shelves

OP had 4 volumes + Stampede in 2019 and sold 10.1m. Since then, its sales per volume have reduced. vol. 100 should sell slightly better, but it's not gonna create a backlog boost.

3. Kimetsu's final volume selling 4.75M and has a backlog of 4M

Well, this'll be easy to prove wrong, we just gotta have to wait a few weeks.
No way is KnY only gonna sell 4m in backlog (it's already at 1m). That's insanely low. 15m for its 2021 total is the bare minimum, and that'll only happen if its sales fall down a cliff, which doesn't seem to be the case.

5. Attack on Titan selling 4M with it's final 2 volumes and has a backlog of 2.5-3M

Attack on Titan volumes haven't reached 2m per year in a long time. Its final 2 volumes will sell 2m, not 4.

 

[Ebrietas-]

. Kimetsu's final volume selling 4.75M and has a backlog of 4M

Bruh...Kimetsu sold 5 million backlog in the month of November alone. It's not going to sell just 4 million backlog in 2021.