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@Shad I think two killing parties is certainly a possibility and I think that would mean each killing party killed someone on the continent they weren't on, but there's also a number of other possibilities that could result in a player's death and we're close to catching mafia powerhouse, janitor, on Laurasia. So, we should explore all angles, but focus votes in on elimating the janitor.
When it comes to who to vote up today, I think the change in killers may be indicative that we were getting close on D2 and that implicates both Brandish and Imperium.
When trying to pick between the two I think it's important to note anc compare the number of scenarios in which argument for guilt works: A weird and under-explained vote by a possible mafia, Imperium in this case, could make sense as being either to save possible mafia teammate, Brandish in this case, or just because both of the two top lynch contenders are townie and the mafia just threw a vote on one those townies make sure that ONE of them would die, however, it does NOT make sense for a mafia member to save someone who is a townie.
In other words, Brandish being killed doesn't necessarily do much to confirm or deny Imperium being guilty since a guilty party would have motivation to kill Sakura, a townie, regardless. However, Imperium turning up guilty HEAVILY implicates Brandish since Imperium saved him.
So, we can be more sure about Brandish after lynching Imperium than we can be about Imperium after lynching Brandish.
As for Marm, another notable suspect. She's hard to read, but I'm inclined to believe the vanilla townie claim as there were things that implied the possibility early on.
Lastly, I think it's a decent case that a mafia member would be less likely to go for a final role like badass cowboy, however, badass cowboy is NOT the last role in that branch of the civics tree: Vigilante is the last civic on that branch that ability is notably more effective in the hands of a mafia since they generally know their team at the start and don't have to guess as much with that EXTRA kill ability. Still, this worth noting, but James and Gajeel aren't notably suspicious atm.
Anyhow, I'll hold off on voting until later in the phase, but my vote will more than likely be going on Imperium.
When it comes to who to vote up today, I think the change in killers may be indicative that we were getting close on D2 and that implicates both Brandish and Imperium.
When trying to pick between the two I think it's important to note anc compare the number of scenarios in which argument for guilt works: A weird and under-explained vote by a possible mafia, Imperium in this case, could make sense as being either to save possible mafia teammate, Brandish in this case, or just because both of the two top lynch contenders are townie and the mafia just threw a vote on one those townies make sure that ONE of them would die, however, it does NOT make sense for a mafia member to save someone who is a townie.
In other words, Brandish being killed doesn't necessarily do much to confirm or deny Imperium being guilty since a guilty party would have motivation to kill Sakura, a townie, regardless. However, Imperium turning up guilty HEAVILY implicates Brandish since Imperium saved him.
So, we can be more sure about Brandish after lynching Imperium than we can be about Imperium after lynching Brandish.
As for Marm, another notable suspect. She's hard to read, but I'm inclined to believe the vanilla townie claim as there were things that implied the possibility early on.
Lastly, I think it's a decent case that a mafia member would be less likely to go for a final role like badass cowboy, however, badass cowboy is NOT the last role in that branch of the civics tree: Vigilante is the last civic on that branch that ability is notably more effective in the hands of a mafia since they generally know their team at the start and don't have to guess as much with that EXTRA kill ability. Still, this worth noting, but James and Gajeel aren't notably suspicious atm.
Anyhow, I'll hold off on voting until later in the phase, but my vote will more than likely be going on Imperium.
