Games Mafia Game 144 - Pan the Diver - Day 4

[Copy Panda]

D4 VOTES

Voting 1/10

1x Slyth - Arrow #1194

DAY DURATION

Beware of the poll closing time. ​

 

[Copy Panda]

good evening divers

 

[Natasha]

Right now mafia are in their midgame. They need 3 more misses to win or a significant mechanical advantage to win at 2.

--- Double Post Merged, Friday at 11:42 PM, Original Post Date: Friday at 11:39 PM ---

Okay. I'm as reinvigorated as I can be after a 16 have some reading back I wanna do.

--- Double Post Merged, Friday at 11:42 PM ---

After a 16 hour day irl*

 

[Vali x lucifer]

Can Mafia often kill multiple townies in a single night ? Or is it always 1 or nothing?

 

[Natasha]

Can Mafia often kill multiple townies in a single night ? Or is it always 1 or nothing?

1 or nothing.

Pirate or bomb or town v town kills are the exceptions to more people dying than expected.

Vote manipulation is also a threat. Noble, sickly.

But I feel like it shouldn't come down to less than 2 misses to lose.

--- Double Post Merged, Friday at 11:48 PM, Original Post Date: Friday at 11:47 PM ---

Okay I need to go check the event mech.

--- Double Post Merged, Yesterday at 12:05 AM ---

For now votes are:
80m: Pom, Sam, Arrow, Dego
60m: Tatsu, Vali, Kako

Is this fully up to date?

I liked Kako's entrance, he's pulling mazino slot up from nothing to slightly trusted.

Between witnessing Dego do nothing with my own eyes and seeing him push to organise the dive I think I trust him more.
Seeing Arrow opportunise on me makes me trust him less.
Both of these things fling them in opposite directions since my distrust in Dego largely came from my trust in Arrow.

80m: Pom, Sam, Arrow, Dego
60m: Tatsu, Vali, Kako

Ideally we end up in 100-150 since that reveals death info.
50-100 is ... not great but livable.

If we get rugpulled by a lot of 80m voters lying and going ascend 40 then we basically do lose this game.

I'm voting 80m.

 

[Vali x lucifer]

My ideal scenario is still first being right about Stylether, then hoping that more info gets revealed about Natasha and the bomb trio by tomorrow. Still i don't really have much hope of it working out tbh. Losing both Gry and Shino today was a big blow.

 

[Natasha]

My ideal scenario is still first being right about Stylether, then hoping that more info gets revealed about Natasha and the bomb trio by tomorrow. Still i don't really have much hope of it working out tbh. Losing both Gry and Shino today was a big blow.

Why was Shino loss a big blow to you?

--- Double Post Merged, Yesterday at 12:10 AM, Original Post Date: Yesterday at 12:09 AM ---

You've been on Stylether the whole game I can't remember why.

 

[Vali x lucifer]

You've been on Stylether the whole game I can't remember why.

1st day no good reason, i wouldn't have voted him if he was at lynch risk tbh

2nd day a bit more suspect, dd voter, not particularly engaged, again ascend vote, but still about 50% sus, i mostly chickened out of giving a decisive vote between you and shino

3rd day, with the late Shino vote, low engagement and especially your green claim coming so early made me confident. If I am wrong well played to mafia I got outplayed, but Stylether didn't help me one bit either in reading him.

 

[Natasha]

They were being quiet about it. You were the one stirring her lynch.


Because shino was distrusted and it was a possible wrong lynch. If she was a mafia, that’d flip you in a different light.


Maybe he is something he can’t see like sleeper or so.


Out of Gry suspects I’m only iffy about Dego because of the whole bomb situation. I actually believe Val. And shino was confirmed townie. I also wonder who Gry investigated.



This is called the hosts want us to stop staying on the same zone. We will need to descend even of just a little.
I’d rather descend a lot so I can keep my role, but that might affect its sanity.

^ this quote doesn't embed properly, jump to it to see what she's responding to

This sounds pretty reasonable from pom.
Clean-cut opinions on my actions, makes a brief comment on all relevant leads, stays consistent with role concerns.

She never mentioned Gry's name D2 for a det who investigated him though.

--- Double Post Merged, Yesterday at 12:30 AM, Original Post Date: Yesterday at 12:25 AM ---

Why was Shino loss a big blow to you?

@Vali x lucifer And this? If you chickened out of voting her why feel the blow, I'd expect you to feel vindicated.

 

[Copy Panda]

votes updated i think? lmk if i missed anything

 

[Natasha]

>> While we are in disarray this much, Natasha and Sam are very much perfect team, with Dego staying besides. All three are 95% mafia in my opinion.

Seriously to all, after what Dego and Sam did, sussing my bomb defuser claim...

I really think that the opposite of this is true.
What better move for mafia to make than to sit back and relax when town eats itself.

As the person who largely lead the last 2 lynches, I can guarantee you mafia sat back and mostly watched.

Like I said, mafia are in their mid-game right now with needing at least 2, average 3 more misses.

In no world is the mafteam me/sam/dego + 1, who do you think we're trusting to carry the torch in endgame by playing like this?

----

Fundamentally, as bad as I've been performing, I can only be this bad here as town.
I'm vouching that dego is at the very least passive unless I'm getting blocked.
Sam has played his whole hand since D1 -- and his socials are very, very in line with town Sam.

Your whole worldview falls apart very quick. You can't lynch Dego here since it'll confirm me, can't lynch me since it'll confirm Dego. You go for Sam.

--- Double Post Merged, Yesterday at 12:46 AM, Original Post Date: Yesterday at 12:42 AM ---

She never mentioned Gry's name D2 for a det who investigated him though.

Correction:

I agree with shino on this, Holt was strong player, but who considers him lie that to kill him over Gry who was more pf a town stirrer?

And Gry is dubious, but he looks more town than the first two in my books.

Sorry Pom. Found the reciepts.

I think believe Pom Det claim.
Stylether might be trying to groom/opportunise on me.

 

[SirSamuel016]

If you are not maf this time, I wont even register for MG 145 xD it is that obvious.

You should bet money on it too

 

[Natasha]

I'd vote either Pom, shino after that refusal to share, Val for similar reasons or Snehal for big doubts about his roles

Hmm...

 

[Copy Panda]

~12h left

 

[Natasha]

Well, if we knew for sure you're telling the truth then Sam is cooked.

But the thing is, you could still be lying about your order in order to make it appear that Sam's order is fake. Which is a very smart play if you did that, but it still requires us believing you to conclude Sam fumbled.

Exactly why I spied Dego too.

--- Double Post Merged, Yesterday at 1:03 AM, Original Post Date: Yesterday at 1:01 AM ---

Dego & Sam TvT

Arrow opportunising as mafia?

--- Double Post Merged, Yesterday at 1:13 AM ---

Trusting Pom (and her sanity) closes enough doors to start piecing together a comfortable wordview.

Pom, Vali, Sam

Eri, Tatsu, Dego, Kako

Snail, Lumi,

Stylether, Arrow

As it stands expecting the bottom 4 there to all flip maf in a Pom trust world.

 

[Vali x lucifer]

@Vali x lucifer And this? If you chickened out of voting her why feel the blow, I'd expect you to feel vindicated.

We are 0-4 with players I feel were pretty good/experienced getting killed off. Of course i hoped for Shino to be Mafia once she got lynched lol, I am only viewing the game from general Town pov

 

[Natasha]

Pom evil world:

Sam, Stylether

Eri, Tatsu, Dego, Kako, Vali

Snail, Lumi

Arrow, Pom

Vali would still be decently green, I like his recent answers to my questions. Would make sense for evil Pom to try and pocket him too.

---

In both worlds Lumi has been pretty uninspiring. In both worlds Arrow remains the mafia in the bomb trio.
I would strongly prefer to see arrow's flip and potentially Lumi's too before going for snail. They both voted snail yesterday.

While I would prefer to lead a lynch on arrow right now
I think
If I'm wrong again
There might be tears
I'll capitulate for now. I trust a stubborn detective far more than Stylether's placation of me.

Votekill Stylether

 

[SirSamuel016]

It helps because my first target was Gry and he was killed N2, so I know I’m sane. Not aurr about other dets though, Gry never shared any results and I distrust styl and Natasha

You having targeted a now dead Gry does look a bit convenient, Vali looks green too so its not a very game-changing target either. Why not investigate Nash n2 or one of the bomb/bomb defuser trio?

--- Double Post Merged, Yesterday at 1:30 AM, Original Post Date: Yesterday at 1:29 AM ---

Gry being dead doesn't confirm that you're sane either Pom, without a conflicting result you may as well be claiming naive

--- Double Post Merged, Yesterday at 1:31 AM ---

Styl with two greens can also be naive though, hence the conundrum

 

[Natasha]

I'm going to sleep very soon if you want to ask me anything @SirSamuel016

 

[SirSamuel016]

Dego & Sam TvT

Arrow opportunising as mafia?

If I speak I'll be in trouble but the lack of thought from it is infuriating. Now with how deep we'll be going they'll defuse me and then push me d4 lol

I'm going to sleep very soon if you want to ask me anything @SirSamuel016

Hmm why dego? If he's m!bomb wouldn't it be likely that his teammates do the kill and other things while he sits there menacingly? Same for if he's another town bomb

 

[Natasha]

So my opinions

Spoiler

89Snehal : as I said could be just lost newbie or hiding on purpose mafia. Feels like he's not engaging/debating much with the rest, just comes, says his bit, answer questions if asked, votes and leaves.
Erin I know she said she would be very busy and I get it but she feels a bit superficial imo. Voted for 'placeholders' twice. Said she would vote a DD lyncher and did but she didn't say why style in particular, maybe she just trusted the other voters more ? but she could have said so. I see her as a good player who can lead town if needed, maybe this time she just doesn't have time but my vibe is still that she's trying to lay low. Tho she was one of the earliest claimer so I'll give her that.
Pomcha : knew to stay away from DD, affiliated herself very fast to shino. a mafia who knows who is town and can thus associate herself with the right people ? Wasn't around much yesterday either.

Sam / Dego / Arrow : as long as there are bomb claims in the middle of this it will be a little hard to resolve this trio in a lynch, unless we get them to vote last on each other somehow. Out of the tree I trust Dego the least, Sam the most, but maybe I'm giving Sam too much street cred cause he's around a lot, tries to poke people to get info. But I've seen a mafia Sam capable of leading town (straight to its demise) before so I'm still trying to keep an eye out in case. Haven't made my mind on arrow. Neutral on him for now.

Style mostly neutral on him, tho yesterday he came in late and just joined the train, could be an opportunist mafia who freely joined a town lynch. but hmmm claim Det. Could be M.det. Naive det is easy to fake after all.

Lumi / Vali : kinda don't know what to do about them so they're yellow by default in my book

Nashy : still see her as mostly townie, waiting to see what she can bring to the table today since she hinted strong roles.

Actually might need to revisit opinion on tatsu if I'm barking up the right tree right now with my suspects.

--- Double Post Merged, Yesterday at 1:43 AM, Original Post Date: Yesterday at 1:39 AM ---

Hmm why dego? If he's m!bomb wouldn't it be likely that his teammates do the kill and other things while he sits there menacingly? Same for if he's another town bomb

I figured if he's mafbomb then you and arrow are truthful.

If that's the case, he'd be mafbomb outside of both of your defusal ranges. Impossible to defuse mafbomb with 2 town defusers sounds implausible.

So if he was maf he'd have another role on surface. One that he keeps insisting on ascending to. Figured it'd be active.

--- Double Post Merged, Yesterday at 1:45 AM ---

Only way for him to be mafia here in my eyes was if I was blocked.
There was no evidence of a block so far and my result matched what I would've gotten from Shino as sane Spy.