American Politics

[M3J]

What I mean is that Ted Cruz, Rubio and Kasich could have banded together after they saw Trump was winning and ended his run, just like the opposition to sanders did.
Trump would not have had a chance in that case. But Rubio waited until after super tuesday and Kasich waited even longer.

What makes you think that Trump would not have had a chance?

 

[kkck]

Trump basically steamrolled mainstream republicans back then. Had jeb, cruz, rubio banded together... it wouldn't have made a damn difference. Trump had already become the republican party by then.

 

[shionoro]

What makes you think that Trump would not have had a chance?

Trump basically steamrolled mainstream republicans back then. Had jeb, cruz, rubio banded together... it wouldn't have made a damn difference. Trump had already become the republican party by then.

We can go through the primary:

2016 Republican Party presidential primaries - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

2016 Republican Party presidential primaries - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Trump did gain traction in the early elections, but in Super Tuesday and between the super Tuesdays, he didnt even very decisively outpace Cruz. Had Kasich and Rubio fallen in line here and given Cruz their endorsement like Buttigieg, Klobuchar and so on did, the moderates would have consolidated behind Cruz. If Cruz had won super tuesday and some primaries after that decisively, the Trump hype would quickly have died down.

Trump was not very dominant in the primary. He was less dominant than Biden in his, even tho Biden was hardly a phenomenon. He would never have won had the republicans done what the democrats did before the first super tuesday.

Trump runs on hype. Losing super tuesday decisively (which would have happened, he already only won rather closely) would have ended his run.

 

[kkck]

We can go through the primary:

2016 Republican Party presidential primaries - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

2016 Republican Party presidential primaries - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Trump did gain traction in the early elections, but in Super Tuesday and between the super Tuesdays, he didnt even very decisively outpace Cruz. Had Kasich and Rubio fallen in line here and given Cruz their endorsement like Buttigieg, Klobuchar and so on did, the moderates would have consolidated behind Cruz. If Cruz had won super tuesday and some primaries after that decisively, the Trump hype would quickly have died down.

Trump was not very dominant in the primary. He was less dominant than Biden in his, even tho Biden was hardly a phenomenon. He would never have won had the republicans done what the democrats did before the first super tuesday.

Trump runs on hype. Losing super tuesday decisively (which would have happened, he already only won rather closely) would have ended his run.

The trump hype precedes the primaries by a decent bit... the only reason this was ignored is that way too many media outlets were focusing on fundraising capacity. but the actual polls had trump winning pretty bigly from the get go. republican voters simply wanted trump. And the politicians they specifically did not want (jeb, kasich, rubio...) banding together wouldn't have changed that. Also, trump had 82 delegates by february while the next candidate had 16 or 15... In super tuesday trump got almost half of all available delegates. In march his victory wasn't as overwhelming but he still won and had a substantial delegate lead... And you are vastly overstating the capability more mainstream republicans could have had to get votes against trump by joining together. During the election it was fucking ted cruz that was second most if not all of the time. A far right religious fanatic who is easily the most hated republican within the republican party. Cruz was never going to get support from the rest of the party to get rid of trump. For the republican party at the time getting behind cruz to get rid of trump would have been equivalent to trading pancreatic cancer for a bullet to your head.... I really can't stress enough how much curz's colleagues hate him... And republican voters were just not in the mood for jebs or rubios or kasichs...

 

[M3J]

From my recollection, the republicans did try to screw over Trump and did what they could to stop him, but he had too much momentum and popularity, and the attention from the press was helping him. I'm going by my memory of what happened, but Trump couldn't have been stopped by anything but himself.

 

[shionoro]

The trump hype precedes the primaries by a decent bit... the only reason this was ignored is that way too many media outlets were focusing on fundraising capacity. but the actual polls had trump winning pretty bigly from the get go. republican voters simply wanted trump. And the politicians they specifically did not want (jeb, kasich, rubio...) banding together wouldn't have changed that. Also, trump had 82 delegates by february while the next candidate had 16 or 15... In super tuesday trump got almost half of all available delegates. In march his victory wasn't as overwhelming but he still won and had a substantial delegate lead... And you are vastly overstating the capability more mainstream republicans could have had to get votes against trump by joining together. During the election it was fucking ted cruz that was second most if not all of the time. A far right religious fanatic who is easily the most hated republican within the republican party. Cruz was never going to get support from the rest of the party to get rid of trump. For the republican party at the time getting behind cruz to get rid of trump would have been equivalent to trading pancreatic cancer for a bullet to your head.... I really can't stress enough how much curz's colleagues hate him... And republican voters were just not in the mood for jebs or rubios or kasichs...

Which brings us back to my argument: Biden did amazing work by being a candidate everyone else could fall in line with. Cruz did not manage that. If he had managed that, he would have won.
As i said, Trump getting 'almost half' of the delegate is not really such an amazing feat. The moderate candidates got more than half. Most of the time, Trump managed to get about 30% of the vote and the people who did not vote him back then were not exactly his fans.
Trump was not even able to secure more than 50% of the popular vote in this primary in which he was hyped up to be a phenomenon. Biden did that.

And Cruz could probably have done that had the rest believably fell in line with him. Him not being able to do that because he has no good connections (like biden has) to the other contestants is a political shortcoming that biden does not have.

 

[xi0]

What I mean is that Ted Cruz, Rubio and Kasich could have banded together after they saw Trump was winning and ended his run, just like the opposition to sanders did.
Trump would not have had a chance in that case. But Rubio waited until after super tuesday and Kasich waited even longer.

And all three of those, with exception to maybe Kasich, would have had just as good of a chance being as damaging to this country as Trump was. All this scenario does is make Clinton's chances of election better, it doesn't reflect what the republican base wanted.

The biggest mistake liberals make is acting like the things Trump stands for (if you can pin them down in the first place) are somehow "new" or "worse" because they come from Trump. They're not, this is what the majority of Republicans are when they don't give a fuck about negative PR and have no one to hold them accountable.

 

[shionoro]

And all three of those, with exception to maybe Kasich, would have had just as good of a chance being as damaging to this country as Trump was. All this scenario does is make Clinton's chances of election better, it doesn't reflect what the republican base wanted.

The biggest mistake liberals make is acting like the things Trump stands for (if you can pin them down in the first place) are somehow "new" or "worse" because they come from Trump. They're not, this is what the majority of Republicans are when they don't give a fuck about negative PR and have no one to hold them accountable.

2016, in this very thread, people were pretty sure that Trump would lose against Clinton and was a gift for the democrats.

Predictions like these are rarely accurate without any stats to go by. Had sanders won against clinton or biden, people would have said his win was unavoidable because the democrat establishment is unelectable.
But sanders has lost, so they say he never had a chance.

Had trump lost, people would have kept saying he never had a chance. But Trump won, so people say his win was unavoidable.

My initial point was that Biden was able to do something that Cruz oder Rubio were not able to do, namely unify most contenders behind him before super tuesday and all of them soon after. That is a political accomplishment that is not a given.
Biden's campaign was actually really competent. They knew what they were doing while everyone mocked them.

All the what ifs do not really apply here. Had corona not happened, then Biden would have run a different kind of campaign. But Corona did happen, and Biden adjusted really well to that. While being mocked for being in a basement. While winning.

Biden is a smart guy. He is old, he is cringe, but he has some political skills that give him a format other even high level politicians do not have.

 

[kkck]

Which brings us back to my argument: Biden did amazing work by being a candidate everyone else could fall in line with. Cruz did not manage that. If he had managed that, he would have won.
As i said, Trump getting 'almost half' of the delegate is not really such an amazing feat. The moderate candidates got more than half. Most of the time, Trump managed to get about 30% of the vote and the people who did not vote him back then were not exactly his fans.
Trump was not even able to secure more than 50% of the popular vote in this primary in which he was hyped up to be a phenomenon. Biden did that.

And Cruz could probably have done that had the rest believably fell in line with him. Him not being able to do that because he has no good connections (like biden has) to the other contestants is a political shortcoming that biden does not have.

But... there was no scenario where cruz managed that. It's not an issue of campaign competence, it's the simple fact that republican party members hate ted cruz with a passion. Cruz built his entire career being a detestable asshole. If the main contenders during the race were trump and cruz then the republican establishment simply was not in the race at all, there wasn't a coalition they could have built if they banded together. Ted cruz is not a part of the republican establishment. He just barely looks the part on account of being a religious zealot but he has been hated by his own party for years and years. For the republican party this is basically the trolley problem if both lanes have the same number of people....

 

[shionoro]

But... there was no scenario where cruz managed that. It's not an issue of campaign competence, it's the simple fact that republican party members hate ted cruz with a passion. Cruz built his entire career being a detestable asshole. If the main contenders during the race were trump and cruz then the republican establishment simply was not in the race at all, there wasn't a coalition they could have built if they banded together. Ted cruz is not a part of the republican establishment. He just barely looks the part on account of being a religious zealot but he has been hated by his own party for years and years. For the republican party this is basically the trolley problem if both lanes have the same number of people....

The republicans fell in line with Trump. Had Cruz given his opponents a really good reason, they would have fallen in line with him.
But once again: It is part of political skill to not make everybody hate you.

Rubio DID endorse Cruz. Just far too late. It isn't like Rubio wanted Trump instead of cruz. It is about doing it earlier. And Rubio's voters mostly DID go to Cruz AFTER the endorsement. Had Rubio done that before super tuesday, Cruz would probably have won, at least if Kasich had followed suit and probably even without that. It would have meant a very decisive victory on super tuesday, killing trump's hype and at least leading to a brokered convention in which they would probably have tried to extinguish trump.

 

[kkck]

The republicans fell in line with Trump. Had Cruz given his opponents a really good reason, they would have fallen in line with him.
But once again: It is part of political skill to not make everybody hate you.

Rubio DID endorse Cruz. Just far too late. It isn't like Rubio wanted Trump instead of cruz. It is about doing it earlier. And Rubio's voters mostly DID go to Cruz AFTER the endorsement. Had Rubio done that before super tuesday, Cruz would probably have won, at least if Kasich had followed suit and probably even without that. It would have meant a very decisive victory on super tuesday, killing trump's hype and at least leading to a brokered convention in which they would probably have tried to extinguish trump.

They wouldn't have. It's not a thing... For the majority of the party a choice between trump and cruz was like a choice between aids and cancer. It's just not how the party worked at the time. Cruz is someone who has spent his entire career being a detestable asshole, there was NEVER an iota of a chance of him undoing that at his convenience during the primaries. Rubio, who consistently was 3rd or fourth during the race endorsing ted cruz earlier wouldn't have changed that. You can't undo decades in a few months. Saying "Well, if cruz had been likeable rather than who he has spent his entire life being then things would have been entirely different" is... I mean, I could say "Ted cruz would be able to beat godzilla in a fist fight if he was a 900 meter tall mike tyson" and it'd be just as valid.

 

[M3J]

Which brings us back to my argument: Biden did amazing work by being a candidate everyone else could fall in line with. Cruz did not manage that. If he had managed that, he would have won.
As i said, Trump getting 'almost half' of the delegate is not really such an amazing feat. The moderate candidates got more than half. Most of the time, Trump managed to get about 30% of the vote and the people who did not vote him back then were not exactly his fans.
Trump was not even able to secure more than 50% of the popular vote in this primary in which he was hyped up to be a phenomenon. Biden did that.

And Cruz could probably have done that had the rest believably fell in line with him. Him not being able to do that because he has no good connections (like biden has) to the other contestants is a political shortcoming that biden does not have.

No Biden didn't. All he had to do was be moderate and promise some things the left wanted without going too far left.

Cruz would have never managed that because not only is he disliked immensely, but republican voters wanted Trump and his open bigotry and "America first" bs, while the republican politicians thought it was better to have Trump in office over a Democrat no matter how incompetent Trump is.

I'm also pretty sure the main reason Trump lost was because of how he managed the pandemic. His incompetent handling made a lot of people realize that he is a shitty leader, and that it's better to have Biden. Otherwise no one but Trump had a chance to win the primary because of his rhetoric.

 

[shionoro]

They wouldn't have. It's not a thing... For the majority of the party a choice between trump and cruz was like a choice between aids and cancer. It's just not how the party worked at the time. Cruz is someone who has spent his entire career being a detestable asshole, there was NEVER an iota of a chance of him undoing that at his convenience during the primaries. Rubio, who consistently was 3rd or fourth during the race endorsing ted cruz earlier wouldn't have changed that. You can't undo decades in a few months. Saying "Well, if cruz had been likeable rather than who he has spent his entire life being then things would have been entirely different" is... I mean, I could say "Ted cruz would be able to beat godzilla in a fist fight if he was a 900 meter tall mike tyson" and it'd be just as valid.

As I have said before, yes, prework is also important. Which is why biden is a very capable politican, as most people, even republicans, like him and see him as a fair dealmaker.
But still: It is just factual to look at the primary election and see that the people who voted rubio spilled over to cruz after the endorsement. The problem was just that Trump was too far gone at that point. Had Rubio done that earlier, there is no reason to think that the people who voted him would not have mostly spilled to cruz, who then would have proceeded to win super tuesday.

In no scenario would the majority of people who voted Rubio spill to Trump. Even a 70/30 split would probably have been enough to beat Trump, had it happened early enough.

Rubio campaigning for Cruz in Florida would also have eased trump's very strong win there. Really, Trump's Primary run was not insanely impressive. It was impressive for a complete outsider, but his numbers were nowhere near dominant.

No Biden didn't. All he had to do was be moderate and promise some things the left wanted without going too far left.

Cruz would have never managed that because not only is he disliked immensely, but republican voters wanted Trump and his open bigotry and "America first" bs, while the republican politicians thought it was better to have Trump in office over a Democrat no matter how incompetent Trump is.

I'm also pretty sure the main reason Trump lost was because of how he managed the pandemic. His incompetent handling made a lot of people realize that he is a shitty leader, and that it's better to have Biden. Otherwise no one but Trump had a chance to win the primary because of his rhetoric.

No. If that was the case, why didn't the other moderate candidates win? Buttigieg had a better result in Iowa than Biden. Why didnt they fall in line behind him? Biden's first few results were disappointing. Even the Obama crowd was more convinced by warren and buttigieg as candidates and championed them.

Biden winning was a result of hard work, a good strategy and lifelong experience.

 

[M3J]

or he lucked out going up against two leftist candidates who were at odds with each other (or their voters anyway), few candidates who weren't popular, and few candidates who weren't as well known. He also managed to make deals, apparently, where he could get their support. Plus, the party was more in line with Biden than most other candidates, I believe.

 

[kkck]

As I have said before, yes, prework is also important. Which is why biden is a very capable politican, as most people, even republicans, like him and see him as a fair dealmaker.
But still: It is just factual to look at the primary election and see that the people who voted rubio spilled over to cruz after the endorsement. The problem was just that Trump was too far gone at that point. Had Rubio done that earlier, there is no reason to think that the people who voted him would not have mostly spilled to cruz, who then would have proceeded to win super tuesday.

In no scenario would the majority of people who voted Rubio spill to Trump. Even a 70/30 split would probably have been enough to beat Trump, had it happened early enough.

Rubio campaigning for Cruz in Florida would also have eased trump's very strong win there. Really, Trump's Primary run was not insanely impressive. It was impressive for a complete outsider, but his numbers were nowhere near dominant.


No. If that was the case, why didn't the other moderate candidates win? Buttigieg had a better result in Iowa than Biden. Why didnt they fall in line behind him? Biden's first few results were disappointing. Even the Obama crowd was more convinced by warren and buttigieg as candidates and championed them.

Biden winning was a result of hard work, a good strategy and lifelong experience.

Factual? We are talking about different states that behave differently and vote differently... Add to that by then there was polling of pretty much every state. Voters spilling over to cruz doesn't exactly work out as you suggest. Trump's polling with the republican party was pretty damn good from the get go and it was pretty clear from the get go he was easily the favorite to win.

The scenario you describe to beat trump is simply too fantastical. It implies that ted cruz could get establishment support, which he couldn't, that rubio would have dropped out pretty much from the start, which he had no reason to do at the time, that the voter split would have been insanely favorable to trump opponents... Basically for cruz to win you only needed an entirely different reality where cruz is an entirely different person where rubio also has 2020 hindsight. Cruz was, and remains, as much a pariah as trump at the time.

As for biden's primaries, he started slow but his victory became more than apparent halfway through. Which was due to the early primary states being among biden's weaker ones... Then they got to states were biden was more popular an his advantage became pretty clear reasonably early on. If the order states vote in was different then biden would have never had the appearance of not having an advantage...

 

[hokageji]

or he lucked out going up against two leftist candidates who were at odds with each other (or their voters anyway), few candidates who weren't popular, and few candidates who weren't as well known. He also managed to make deals, apparently, where he could get their support. Plus, the party was more in line with Biden than most other candidates, I believe.

Biden even managed to approach AOC and other progressives on what their requests were, he didnt just walk away from the other people of the party. After he became the nominee, everybody was inline in support, not just because beating Trump was a key. I doubt others would've done that to the same effect.

I think next election, he may decide to not run or lose in the primaries like LBJ to an extent.

 

[M3J]

Beating Trump was the key for many people though, that's mainly what made them get in line. They probably thought Bernie wouldn't have support because he was too far left.

--- Double Post Merged, Dec 28, 2020, Original Post Date: Dec 28, 2020 ---

I just remembered: Hillary's character assassination and toxic Bernie bros were a huge part of what hurt Bernie and caused him to lose. So Biden at least had shitty Bernie bros on his side as well as Hillary hating Bernie.

 

[xi0]

Biden even managed to approach AOC and other progressives on what their requests were, he didnt just walk away from the other people of the party. After he became the nominee, everybody was inline in support, not just because beating Trump was a key. I doubt others would've done that to the same effect.

I think next election, he may decide to not run or lose in the primaries like LBJ to an extent.

Lose in what primary? He's the incumbent, he would have to have a horrendous presidency for the DNC to challenge him in a primary. LBJ was only challenged in a primary due to how unpopular the Vietnam War was and how fractured the party was because of it.

Of course, choosing not to run might be more likely than that scenario, due to health reasons. That certainly parallels LBJ a bit more.

I just remembered: Hillary's character assassination and toxic Bernie bros were a huge part of what hurt Bernie and caused him to lose. So Biden at least had shitty Bernie bros on his side as well as Hillary hating Bernie.

What character assassination? You realize this "Bernie Bros" thing was largely a device used by mainstream Democrats to vilify Sander's supporters, right?

 

[M3J]

Hillary criticizing Bernie where she could.

And the Bernie bro thing is based off my observation, on Twitter, Facebook, and in real life. I supported Bernie, but I can see why a lot of people, especially women, were chased away.

 

[hokageji]

Lose in what primary? He's the incumbent, he would have to have a horrendous presidency for the DNC to challenge him in a primary. LBJ was only challenged in a primary due to how unpopular the Vietnam War was and how fractured the party was because of it.

Of course, choosing not to run might be more likely than that scenario, due to health reasons. That certainly parallels LBJ a bit more.

My point is that he is going to be a one term president and even if he decides to continue, there is a possibility he wont win. And him not running is of course in the chance the country comes out worse than better in 4 years....