American Politics

[M3J]

If any Republican primary candidate would have more support than Trump, than who would it be? And who would be willing to challenge Trump and supporters he has in the RNC? Maybe Kasich? But would he have the support that Trump has? At best it would cut the party in half and Trump's supporters would be more likely to vote for an Independent/Dem than they would vote for anyone who challenged him. It would be a clusterfuck, and they'd have little chance against the Democratic nominee, unless it was something insane like Hillary again or Pelosi.

No Republican challenger would vow to continue Trump's work because the point of challenging him right now would be to prevent him from getting a second term.

I dunno, honestly, but there should be few republicans who might be able to capitalize on some republicans not liking Trump. They might even try to encourage independents to vote against Trump. However, I'm willing to bet that even if Trump did lose the primaries, most of his supporters would back up the republican candidate anyway because right winger/conservative. I expect no logic from the same group of voters whose main reason for voting for sexual assaulters was because it'd piss liberals off. These people HATE anything left wing, Democrat, or liberal.

They might some, and they might even continue the bigotry that he used to get votes.

 

[Pat]

I dislike the way trump's caving is being presented as. Surely trump did cave but I'd argue there is almost certainly going to be another shutdown come february. And given the way this is being covered trump will be specially motivated to lock himself in a closet while covering his ears and screaming "NANANANANNA" until he gets his wall.

But what's the point of doing the same thing and expecting a different outcome? Why did he end the shutdown in the first place and make himself look weak if he'll start all over? Perhaps he says what he says just to save face and give the message to his followers that he's still a tough guy. He holds the "national emergency" card as a bargaining chip but I don't think it's enough to give himself everything he needs, it seems like his team is ready to make additional sacrifices to get the funding for the wall.

 

[xi0]

I dunno, honestly, but there should be few republicans who might be able to capitalize on some republicans not liking Trump. They might even try to encourage independents to vote against Trump. However, I'm willing to bet that even if Trump did lose the primaries, most of his supporters would back up the republican candidate anyway because right winger/conservative. I expect no logic from the same group of voters whose main reason for voting for sexual assaulters was because it'd piss liberals off. These people HATE anything left wing, Democrat, or liberal.

They might some, and they might even continue the bigotry that he used to get votes.

But there's still the 20-30% that are considered his base. Hard to know how many are diehards, but even if it's below 20% it would be enough to damage the GOP's chances. And if they failed to take his nomination from him, it could bolster Trump's support even further.

There are people who supported Trump simply on the basis that he was an outsider and anti-globalist. Among those types are people who also supported Bernie and would support other anti-establishment politicians. Those same people would not support a typical GOP candidate.

 

[kkck]

But what's the point of doing the same thing and expecting a different outcome? Why did he end the shutdown in the first place and make himself look weak if he'll start all over? Perhaps he says what he says just to save face and give the message to his followers that he's still a tough guy. He holds the "national emergency" card as a bargaining chip but I don't think it's enough to give himself everything he needs, it seems like his team is ready to make additional sacrifices to get the funding for the wall.

Because trump is... trump. Just consider the circumstances of the shutdown that just ended:

• Trump said he'd own the shutdown months ago.
• The wall is largely unpopular within the US. around 55-60% of the public are against it. And within the rest its probably only trump's base that thinks the wall is indispensable. Which as far as I can tell is at the most 20%. The wall is basically a fringe idea from a radical wing of the republican party.

And then the politics of a shutdown. If trump wanted to "win" the shutdown he needed the other party to take the blame for it. And if he is doing it for the wall he needed at least to have the public in his favor for it. Frankly, it does not look like trump had an iota of an idea about the politics at play here. And of course, the result was trump handing democrats the easiest win they could have possibly been given. Because democrats had to do literally nothing to win. The only scenario where it would have made sense for democrats to ever cave on the wall is that republicans made an astonishing concession. But of course, there is nothing like that trump can offer. A permanent solution for dreamers would have sort of approached the astonishing concession trump would have had to make but even that wouldn't or shouldn't have been enough (IMO). And of course, his base (the ones that support the wall) would loath this. I don't know of anything else he can offer democrats that wouldn't be hated by his party as a whole.

And now for the next potential shutdown.... What option does trump have? He basically cornered himself here. He looks weak, and incompetent, enough as it is given how the previous shutdown played out. And democrats continue to have precisely zero motivation to give trump a fraction of a penny for the wall. Wall negotiations, barring an astonishing and basically implausible concession from republicans, have a certain outcome. Realistically speaking the reasonable thing to do for trump would be to shut the hell up, cut his loses, and move on to the next thing in his agenda. While accepting he simply is not getting a wall. But this is trump we are talking about.

 

[M3J]

But what's the point of doing the same thing and expecting a different outcome? Why did he end the shutdown in the first place and make himself look weak if he'll start all over? Perhaps he says what he says just to save face and give the message to his followers that he's still a tough guy. He holds the "national emergency" card as a bargaining chip but I don't think it's enough to give himself everything he needs, it seems like his team is ready to make additional sacrifices to get the funding for the wall.

He can make it look like he reopened the government just for the employees, which would further make him look better while the Democrats look even worse.

But there's still the 20-30% that are considered his base. Hard to know how many are diehards, but even if it's below 20% it would be enough to damage the GOP's chances. And if they failed to take his nomination from him, it could bolster Trump's support even further.

There are people who supported Trump simply on the basis that he was an outsider and anti-globalist. Among those types are people who also supported Bernie and would support other anti-establishment politicians. Those same people would not support a typical GOP candidate.

True, if they still support Trump, do they still care about him being an outsider or anti-globalist? Hasn't he proven to be pro-establishment?

 

[xi0]

True, if they still support Trump, do they still care about him being an outsider or anti-globalist? Hasn't he proven to be pro-establishment?

Sure, there's plenty of people willing to perform the mental gymnastics there still

 

[M3J]

might as well give the election to Trump if she runs again.

 

[SharkBait]

might as well give the election to Trump if she runs again.

Odd, did she happen to find those 31K emails?! Is she ready to answer for Benghazi, even this year families are still demanding answers from her.

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Theres so many new democratic candidates and some have questionable views of non heterosexuals rights while others have yet to unite under Sanders views which AOC seems to be the modern day interpretation of, if democrats dont unite this is just gonna be the same as last time.

Still siding and betting on a Trump second candidacy, will be doubly reinforced if he does another shutdown and gets his wall. If he doesnt, then he'll forever be the wimp that ms ann coulter says he is. For someone who is wanting national security and immigration reform, his record with getting most of his desires done is not going so well for him, so it makes him look really bad.

Ill probably be in the will not vote camp unless some conservative democrat has compelling agreeable positions.

 

[kkck]

Ah, dammit. To an extent I can more or less imagine why hillary would think this is a good idea... People already picked trump, they see the error of their way sort of deal. But... hillary remains deeply hated as a politician. As much as I'd love to see trump defeated by her specifically, I hope she looks at the polling and stays out of it.

--- Double Post Merged, Jan 28, 2019, Original Post Date: Jan 27, 2019 ---

Odd, did she happen to find those 31K emails?! Is she ready to answer for Benghazi, even this year families are still demanding answers from her.

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Theres so many new democratic candidates and some have questionable views of non heterosexuals rights while others have yet to unite under Sanders views which AOC seems to be the modern day interpretation of, if democrats dont unite this is just gonna be the same as last time.

Still siding and betting on a Trump second candidacy, will be doubly reinforced if he does another shutdown and gets his wall. If he doesnt, then he'll forever be the wimp that ms ann coulter says he is. For someone who is wanting national security and immigration reform, his record with getting most of his desires done is not going so well for him, so it makes him look really bad.

Ill probably be in the will not vote camp unless some conservative democrat has compelling agreeable positions.

There have been 8 or 9 bengazi investigations. By republicans at that. When the last one ended and gowdy presented his findings all he could say was something along the lines that the public can view his results and judge for themselves. Which is code for "we found literally nothing". benghazi is the stupidest and most dishonest thing that clinton is accused of. There is nothing there to be found, if there was anything at all republicans would have certainly found it within any of their investigations. And your framing of the emails is wrong. Find them? She didn't lose them to begin with, she had them deleted. She isn't going to find them ever. But I do think the email thing should be considered enough baggage to make her unelectable. Unless an alternative to her is THAT much worst.

 

[xi0]

Theres so many new democratic candidates and some have questionable views of non heterosexuals rights

Who are you talking about?

Ill probably be in the will not vote camp unless some conservative democrat has compelling agreeable positions.

So you want a "conservative" Democrat, but not one who has questionable views of non-hetero rights? What exactly would an acceptable conservative Democrat look like to you then?

 

[Franckie]

Trump doesn't concern me so much as his Republican enablers do. Every Republican on Capital Hill fully understands who Trump is, and what electorate among the GOP base he represents. They. Don't. Care. They're perfectly fine with ignoring pesky Constitutional things like the emoluments clause + foreign espionage if it means they can secure tax cuts for their rich donors and pack the courts with corporate stooges. There was always a white nationalist bent to the GOP, but over the past 20+ years all the "conservatives" have been replaced by white nationalist reactionaries. The irony of it all is that nonwhites are not the greatest ire of white nationalists, but their fellow whites whom they hold in greatest contempt.

 

[M3J]

Main reason why Clinton plans on running again, I bet, is because she thinks she's gotten far more support and will win this time. I've seen opinions of her go from criticizing her to praising her and calling her a feminist after she lost; her loss really got her sympathy. Problem is, her nomination will just show that Dems are still out of touch and still shitty as ever.

 

[SharkBait]

no one was excited or even mobilized to vote for clinton. Voter turnout will be even lower if she were up against trump.

see http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...as-a-record-number-of-americans-cast-ballots/

 

[M3J]

Clinton did beat Trump by 3 million votes

--- Double Post Merged, Jan 29, 2019, Original Post Date: Jan 28, 2019 ---

 

[SharkBait]

Democrats cant agree on healthcare platforms, aligning with more conservative views. Perhaps she is the leading choice.

 

[kkck]

So, I take it we can rule out elizabeth warren as a candidate? I like her positions on regulating banks and the financial sector in general but now that her bar card with her own handwriting has been exposed it will haunt her forever. I do think this issue is largely exaggerated to some extent(specifically the bit about the dna test) but realistically speaking this makes her almost as toxic as clinton... Though for obviously much different, and less severe, reasons than the clintons.

 

[M3J]

 

[xi0]

 

[M3J]

I saw that. what was her response? I still don't know where she got $1.7 billion from

 

[kkck]

I saw that. what was her response? I still don't know where she got $1.7 billion from

i haven't seen any but I would answer to him.... so what? The 1.7 was at best a mistake and at worst a lie but if that number was wrong by a factor of 500% then we are still talking about 300 million-ish dollars in dark money. That's still A LOT of money. Sure, AOC should have done her homework (its not the first time she makes this type of mistake) but it doesn't even affect her broader point. His response does not even have anything to do with the simple fact that politicians can use their position to make a profit. And it'd be entirely asinine to think that the origin of campaign funding does not affect policy. there is plenty I don't agree on with AOC but this "response" to what she said is not really, well, a response.