American Politics

shionoro

Mangahelper
有名人 / Yuumeijin / Celebrity
Mangahelper
Joined
Jul 7, 2011
Messages
3,750
Reaction score
1,477
Gender
Male
Country
Germany
I suppose that with trump being so short on breath there is a good chance it might be physically impossible for him to interrupt biden in the next debate. I can already picture his supporters going all about him being all presidential and respectful of biden while trump struggles to breath. Or alternatively an exasperated biden going "Man, will you shut up?" at trump while trump gasps for air.

More seriously though, it's a big question how much trump will be affected by post covid syndrome. He could be short on breath or have a cough for months... Then again trump's not even out of the disease so the worst might not even be over... I know people who have tested positive for weeks after their symptoms are gone.
I feel like republicans are really screwing up big time atm.
Even if they lost the presidency, they had (and have) a good shot at the senate, but their chances are slipping

They thought they could downplay the disease until the election, but right now it is obvious that they can't with trump and 3 senators being infected (and some more).
They try to combat that by parading trump around as if nothing happened, but that makes it worse. He gets bad press for that and unless he can really deliver a second debate as a seemingly healthy man (and i dont think he can), that just makes their lies more obvious.
And it is a huge gamble to begin with. If trump has to go to hospital a second time now that he downplayed it, that will be even worse for him.

I am curious about this year's VP debate, i think it will be more relevant than a VP debate usually is.
 

M3J

MH Senpai
神のごとし / Kami no Gotoshi / Godlike
Joined
Mar 2, 2009
Messages
48,828
Reaction score
17,292
Gender
Male
Country
Akatsuki

Even if you take the rest of the insanity out of it, why would you want to be seen in public like this after saying the kind of things they've said about his condition?
I mean, it's not like he's going to lose supporters, they'll just be even more inspired by him and see Biden as weak. Trump doesn't really lose much here either way.
 

xi0

あの術
最終形態 / Saishuu Keitai / Final Form
Administrator
Joined
Feb 3, 2006
Messages
65,177
Reaction score
30,213
Gender
Male
Country
Pyke
I mean, it's not like he's going to lose supporters, they'll just be even more inspired by him and see Biden as weak. Trump doesn't really lose much here either way.
It's not about his fervent supporters, it's about the voters he needs to have to actually win
 

M3J

MH Senpai
神のごとし / Kami no Gotoshi / Godlike
Joined
Mar 2, 2009
Messages
48,828
Reaction score
17,292
Gender
Male
Country
Akatsuki
I don't think that'll make much of a different, would it? If they weren't going to vote for him before this, they weren't going to anyway.
 

shionoro

Mangahelper
有名人 / Yuumeijin / Celebrity
Mangahelper
Joined
Jul 7, 2011
Messages
3,750
Reaction score
1,477
Gender
Male
Country
Germany
I think in one week, when we know how trump's disease is going to play out, we will have a pretty good idea about whether he can recover in the polls (and the election).

Right now, things look very grim for him. Not 2016 grim, but much, much worse. He would need more than a simple polling error in a few swing states to win this.

Democrats might win states like Ohio or Georgia (both are toss ups right now) without them needing these states to win (as long as they win pennsylvania and wisconsin decisively, their win should be smooth sailing).

The way the polling map looks right now, even if the republicans did everything in their power to suppress the vote and cheat (and i think they will), they couldnt take this win away from the dems.
 

kkck

Waifu Slayer
神のごとし / Kami no Gotoshi / Godlike
Joined
Sep 3, 2007
Messages
46,254
Reaction score
24,904
Gender
Hidden
Country
Fire Nation
I feel like republicans are really screwing up big time atm.
Even if they lost the presidency, they had (and have) a good shot at the senate, but their chances are slipping

They thought they could downplay the disease until the election, but right now it is obvious that they can't with trump and 3 senators being infected (and some more).
They try to combat that by parading trump around as if nothing happened, but that makes it worse. He gets bad press for that and unless he can really deliver a second debate as a seemingly healthy man (and i dont think he can), that just makes their lies more obvious.
And it is a huge gamble to begin with. If trump has to go to hospital a second time now that he downplayed it, that will be even worse for him.

I am curious about this year's VP debate, i think it will be more relevant than a VP debate usually is.
Welp, this is hillary's forecast back in the day

And this is biden's;

The forecasts have clearly behaved in a different manner but... up to October sixth, today, both give the trump about the same chances of winning. There is a pretty good chance that going forward the polls will end up at pretty much the same places as they did in 2016 once voters sort of... go back home so to speak.

Also, I don't think republicans would care if trump isn't healthy by election time. And they also don't care about biden being a decent man or a devout catholic.
 

shionoro

Mangahelper
有名人 / Yuumeijin / Celebrity
Mangahelper
Joined
Jul 7, 2011
Messages
3,750
Reaction score
1,477
Gender
Male
Country
Germany
Welp, this is hillary's forecast back in the day

And this is biden's;

The forecasts have clearly behaved in a different manner but... up to October sixth, today, both give the trump about the same chances of winning. There is a pretty good chance that going forward the polls will end up at pretty much the same places as they did in 2016 once voters sort of... go back home so to speak.

Also, I don't think republicans would care if trump isn't healthy by election time. And they also don't care about biden being a decent man or a devout catholic.
There is a very important difference: Biden leads in all states he has to win by 50% or more. Clinton never did that. Clinton led Trump with margins like 45 to 42, so lots of undecided or third voters. And these overwhelmingly split for Trump on election day.

In this election, there are far less such voters and thus polls are more reliable because they do not have to take all that many assumption about this undecided voter group.
Biden leads Trump with 50%+ in:
  • North carolina
  • Florida
  • Arizona
  • Pennsylvania
  • Wisconsin
Starting with Pennsylvania (the WORST state he HAS TO win right now to be president), he leads with 52%+ in the polls. Basically, if he wins all states in which he leads with 52% to 46% or better, he wins the presidency, and there are quite a big number of more democrat leaning states with a 50% lead or at least toss ups in which the margins are very close.

And his numbers are far more stable than clinton's are with the momentum in Biden's direction. We are not looking at a 2016 situation here.

If the election was tomorrow, fivethirtyeight would give Trump about 10% winchance, compared to his 28% in 2016. And that is if you factor in all the things like incumbent bonusses and so on. The pure polling data is even more damning.

What is also sadly relevant to mention: Starting withi Pennsylvania, all states which will probably end up blue but might be close have democrat governors that can intercept if republicans try to cheat. The same is true for north carolina. Basically, if Biden wins all the states in which he has 80% winrate or more (or as i phrased it, 52%+ to 46% lead or better), nobody can take that win from him.
 
Last edited:

M3J

MH Senpai
神のごとし / Kami no Gotoshi / Godlike
Joined
Mar 2, 2009
Messages
48,828
Reaction score
17,292
Gender
Male
Country
Akatsuki
Biden did not help his case when he denounced the "radical left," though.
 

Xeroxed

Registered User
中級員 / Chuukyuuin / Member
Joined
Sep 16, 2018
Messages
206
Reaction score
296
Country
Sweden
No, that's not really what it is. White supremacy is a form of chauvinism, and the belief that whites are superior and should therefore be domineering towards other groups. You don't need to be violent or even be okay with violence to be a white supremacist. And even though I don't really consider myself far left, I can still see that there are laws and other structures in society that still enforce older ways of thinking at the expense of minorities. Refusing to acknowledge this or even treating the topic as a non-starter is what gets people called a white supremacist more often than not.
Oh you are so very close! You have accidentally stumbled on a really important piece of wisdom here. I think I might even have to give this post a like! But you are not quite there yet. I will help you!

Have you ever wondered about why half the population leans left and the other leans right? And why that never seem to change much despite all the debates and propaganda that flies from both sides? You'd think that one side would have convinced the other side with logical arguments that it is better by now. But that does not seem to happen. Because logic does not mater much in politics. Politics is mostly about tribalism and the emotions different groups embodies.

So what kind of emotions does the left and the right embodies? Well, the left embodies the emotions of shame and guilt. It speaks to people who are shameful and/or guilty and wants to get rid of these feelings. The right is the opposite. It embodies Pride and arrogance and it attracts people who are proud of themselves, their accomplishments and their country. (And also people who are proud of their history and race. But that is frowned up on, I dont know why?) Also most parents are proud of their children, which is why leftists who have children tend to become conservative over time.

Anyway, about shame: Shame is probably the most dangerous and destructive emotion to exist. It requires constant recompense and when it does not get that it instead turns in to bitterness and resentment. Thats dangerous because people who becomes bitter and resentful no longer care about truth or fairness. Only about making everyone else feel as bad as they do.

This is easy to observe if you look for it. Take the BLM protests as an example. What do they want? No one seem to know? They just seem to run around screaming vague insults about all cops being bad and that a specific race maters. And they get angry if you claim that all races mater. They also riot and burn down the properties of innocent bystanders. But what do they want to accomplish? They dont know. Or they pretend not to know. What they actually want is to get an outlet for all the resentment and anger that the shame has been building in them. They want to feel like they are important and they want everyone who think they are better than them to be dragged in the mud before them!

So they go out and egg each other on until catastrophy after catastrophy happens. And they delight every time any one else suffer. As long as that person is a sanctioned target. See below for an example:
........

Shall we have a toast, then?
People say that Trump is some kind of outsider to the right, but to me he is obviously the true avatar of conservatism. Its actually the old establishment repubs that are the fakers. But they are there for a good reason.

Why is Trump so perfect? And why does the left hate him so? Because of his policies? Heck no! Its because Trump is the most Arrogant and Prideful man alive! He is the living embodiment of all the emotions that the right espouses. And he is the living embodiment of that which everyone bitter and resentful hate. There is nothing that a self loathing person hates more than a person that loves himself and displays it everywhere he goes and on every TV-screen! A person who brags every other sentence and look down on and berates people (that rightfully deserves is imho.) Even worse! He never loses! First he went in to the presidential race in 2016 as a total nobody that had never been elected to anything and had no political allies. Then he too down the "Chosen One" herself! Then the concerted efforts of the democrats, the media and the deep state spent four years trying to destroy him failed as he managed to fulfill more of his big election promises than almost any president before him!

What did Trump succeed with? Unemployment down to 3.5% in 2019! A shining border wall that (together with rule changes) have reduced illegal immigration by 80% compared to Obamas last year in office. (Probably more when 2020 numbers come in due to covid). Renegotiation of bad trade deals that are good for the capital but pits american workers against workers in 3:rd world countries that makes pennies per hour. As a result in 2019 the wages for the lowest paid workers increased the most in decades. Or did before the covid lockdowns. This is why so many labor unions support Trump.

Anyway I digress. The establishment repubs have a point though. Hard as it is to admit it. "Normal" politician are slick "centrists" like Biden that does not embodies any emotions and say anything to get people to like them/get elected. People dislikes them because of their slimyness, but no one hates them on an emotional level. They can rule and not have the opposite side revolt against them. Even if they only do things that are good for corporations. But thats an intellectual problem, not an emotional one. You know it is bad, but you do not feel it in your gut.
 

M3J

MH Senpai
神のごとし / Kami no Gotoshi / Godlike
Joined
Mar 2, 2009
Messages
48,828
Reaction score
17,292
Gender
Male
Country
Akatsuki
Christ, I wish this was enough to make Trump lose support, but nope. His supporters work against their own interest

 

shionoro

Mangahelper
有名人 / Yuumeijin / Celebrity
Mangahelper
Joined
Jul 7, 2011
Messages
3,750
Reaction score
1,477
Gender
Male
Country
Germany
Biden did not help his case when he denounced the "radical left," though.
If your opponents are trying to render you as demented guy controlled by antifa, denouncing the radical left is a good move unless it eats into your base. In case of Biden, it doesn't because Sanders campaigns for him and anyone who is left by now understood that trump cannot stay.
Have you ever wondered about why half the population leans left and the other leans right? And why that never seem to change much despite all the debates and propaganda that flies from both sides? You'd think that one side would have convinced the other side with logical arguments that it is better by now. But that does not seem to happen. Because logic does not mater much in politics. Politics is mostly about tribalism and the emotions different groups embodies.
That is not factual. The division in america is changing, the only reason it even looks like two equally strong blocs is due to the two party system and the electoral college/voter supression.
For instance, two thirds of america favour a minimum wage, yet due to the two party system, this popular leftist policy is not passed.
57% of americans approve admitting central american refugees even after all the rape, crime and drug propaganda.

More often than not, the division into two roughly equal blocs happens because of framing and tying topics together. There is nothing natural about having this kind of divide, as we can see that other countries do not have them (there are countries in which the left or right is far stronger than the other).
This is easy to observe if you look for it. Take the BLM protests as an example. What do they want? No one seem to know? They just seem to run around screaming vague insults about all cops being bad and that a specific race maters. And they get angry if you claim that all races mater. They also riot and burn down the properties of innocent bystanders. But what do they want to accomplish? They dont know. Or they pretend not to know. What they actually want is to get an outlet for all the resentment and anger that the shame has been building in them. They want to feel like they are important and they want everyone who think they are better than them to be dragged in the mud before them!
BLM, much like fridays for future, has very clear demands. BLM seattle gave out a comprehensive list that you could take as roughly what the BLM movement wants on a whole https://blacklivesseattle.org/our-demands/

I think you should read up on these topics.
 

M3J

MH Senpai
神のごとし / Kami no Gotoshi / Godlike
Joined
Mar 2, 2009
Messages
48,828
Reaction score
17,292
Gender
Male
Country
Akatsuki
If your opponents are trying to render you as demented guy controlled by antifa, denouncing the radical left is a good move unless it eats into your base. In case of Biden, it doesn't because Sanders campaigns for him and anyone who is left by now understood that trump cannot stay.
Do you know any "radical left?" Bernie campaigning for Biden isn't helping as much, and rather than correct them, he just generalized and criticized the further left. I know plenty of further left who are anti-Biden, and many who turned on Bernie for throwing his hat in with Biden. I don't understand why they aren't seeing that Bernie did this because he knows how horrible Trump is compared to Biden.
 

shionoro

Mangahelper
有名人 / Yuumeijin / Celebrity
Mangahelper
Joined
Jul 7, 2011
Messages
3,750
Reaction score
1,477
Gender
Male
Country
Germany
Do you know any "radical left?" Bernie campaigning for Biden isn't helping as much, and rather than correct them, he just generalized and criticized the further left. I know plenty of further left who are anti-Biden, and many who turned on Bernie for throwing his hat in with Biden. I don't understand why they aren't seeing that Bernie did this because he knows how horrible Trump is compared to Biden.
It is helping A LOT that Sanders does that. There is a crowd that'd never vote for any establishment politician. But that crowd is small and biden shouldnt care about them. Nothing he could do would sway them, so it is smart to distance from them.

Anyone with half a brain in his head knows that biden is better for the cause of the left than trump. Because if trump gets a second term, the democratic party is done.
With all the gerrymandering, judge installation and downright cheating the republicans can do if they get another term and another senate majority, i do not think the democrats are going to win again if they cannot win now. Including any leftist democrats.

With a term of biden, maybe you only get half the measures done that someone like sanders would want to do: But at least you get half of them done and a fundament to build on. Biden is already pushed to the left farther than Obama and Clinton were. He would at least be a person who reverses the trend and can be influenced over his term and in his second term by leftists.
It also cannot be ignored that someone like Biden is more likely to listen to people like sanders or warren than someone like clinton or obama were.
 

M3J

MH Senpai
神のごとし / Kami no Gotoshi / Godlike
Joined
Mar 2, 2009
Messages
48,828
Reaction score
17,292
Gender
Male
Country
Akatsuki
How do you know it's small?

I don't know or care if the Democratic party is done, and the further left couldn't care less at all. Many don't see Biden as any better than Trump, and that's a dumb and dangerous thinking, which is one thing you and I agree on. It doesn't matter what happens to the Dems' future, but if the Reps win again, they'll take away even more rights and protections for groups like LGBT+ people, women, and people who rely on ACA.

I'm confused by how Bernie supporters argue for M4A, but they refuse to support Biden and risk letting a party trying to repeal ACA win.
 

xi0

あの術
最終形態 / Saishuu Keitai / Final Form
Administrator
Joined
Feb 3, 2006
Messages
65,177
Reaction score
30,213
Gender
Male
Country
Pyke
I'm confused by how Bernie supporters argue for M4A, but they refuse to support Biden and risk letting a party trying to repeal ACA win.
Because ACA isn't M4A, and Biden himself has said he doesn't support it...
--- Double Post Merged, , Original Post Date: ---

Oh you are so very close! You have accidentally stumbled on a really important piece of wisdom here. I think I might even have to give this post a like! But you are not quite there yet. I will help you!
Just going to be honest and say that I'm not really seeing what this "piece of wisdom" is that you've noticed or how anything you've said relates to it
 

M3J

MH Senpai
神のごとし / Kami no Gotoshi / Godlike
Joined
Mar 2, 2009
Messages
48,828
Reaction score
17,292
Gender
Male
Country
Akatsuki
Because ACA isn't M4A, and Biden himself has said he doesn't support it...
But Trump and the Reps want to repeal ACA and either not replace it or replace it with something worse, right?
 

xi0

あの術
最終形態 / Saishuu Keitai / Final Form
Administrator
Joined
Feb 3, 2006
Messages
65,177
Reaction score
30,213
Gender
Male
Country
Pyke
But Trump and the Reps want to repeal ACA and either not replace it or replace it with something worse, right?
They can't do that without congressional approval really.

Biden was in an administration that proposed a single-payer option, but that was taken off of the table. Medicare-for-all is practically a single-payer system under a different name, so the notion that he doesn't support it when a large portion of Democrats do is an issue.
 

M3J

MH Senpai
神のごとし / Kami no Gotoshi / Godlike
Joined
Mar 2, 2009
Messages
48,828
Reaction score
17,292
Gender
Male
Country
Akatsuki
They can't do that without congressional approval really.

Biden was in an administration that proposed a single-payer option, but that was taken off of the table. Medicare-for-all is practically a single-payer system under a different name, so the notion that he doesn't support it when a large portion of Democrats do is an issue.
But they might get it, and that's worse than ACA and not getting M4A, no?
 

xi0

あの術
最終形態 / Saishuu Keitai / Final Form
Administrator
Joined
Feb 3, 2006
Messages
65,177
Reaction score
30,213
Gender
Male
Country
Pyke
But they might get it, and that's worse than ACA and not getting M4A, no?
A "what's worse?" scenario is not going to get people to the polls. You saw that in 2016.
 

M3J

MH Senpai
神のごとし / Kami no Gotoshi / Godlike
Joined
Mar 2, 2009
Messages
48,828
Reaction score
17,292
Gender
Male
Country
Akatsuki
Given how healthcare is one of the primary arguments among Bernie supporters, I'm not sure this time, especially after Trump and Reps were trying to repeal ACA actively.
 
Top