American Politics

[Sanity Check]

I think everyone can laugh @ this one.

 

[xi0]

Another noncommittal response.


Do you take a firm stance on anything? I can't read 400+ pages unless you put me on the payroll.

We have to be on equal footing ideologically for you to make your point?

Noncommittal to what?? I wasn't even addressing you in the first place, so why do you believe that the onus is on me to engage with you?

What point or debate would there to be had if that was the case? Putting in an effort to not be as cantankerous as humanly possible might help though.

--- Double Post Merged, Nov 27, 2021, Original Post Date: Nov 27, 2021 ---

I wonder if anyone gets this?

The articles I saw just yesterday were referring to this as "Nu" in the eventuality that it got added to the VOI/VOC list, so I'm not sure why that was seemingly skipped over either. Unless there's a reference I'm missing with that one.

 

[Jubei_Kibagami]

Noncommittal to what?? I wasn't even addressing you in the first place, so why do you believe that the onus is on me to engage with you?

What point or debate would there to be had if that was the case? Putting in an effort to not be as cantankerous as humanly possible might help though.

Is this you pretending I haven't asked you pointed questions in the recent pages?

I mean, forget it then. We can just go back to being passive aggressive making jabs at the periphery of the point being discussed.

--- Double Post Merged, Nov 27, 2021, Original Post Date: Nov 27, 2021 ---

The articles I saw just yesterday were referring to this as "Nu" in the eventuality that it got added to the VOI/VOC list, so I'm not sure why that was seemingly skipped over either. Unless there's a reference I'm missing with that one.

Yeah, I don't get that jump either.

Xi is obviously a possible landmine for obvious reasons. Why NoNu?

--- Double Post Merged, Nov 27, 2021 ---

Cov-Lineages

cov-lineages.org

No Nu or Xi in pango lin. Weird.

Hearsay is that Nu is reserved for a variant discovered earlier in the year.

--- Double Post Merged, Nov 27, 2021 ---

NY Gov Kathy Hochul declares state of emergency amid new COVID variant

Kathy Hochul on Friday declared a 'disaster emergency' in New York, as the state braces for the arrival of Omicron, a new and worrying COVID-19 variant which was first detected in Botswana.

www.dailymail.co.uk

LOL. A new variant is barely emerging in Africa, and yet Hochul cites it as an ancillary in her reasons to, yet again, declare a state of emergency in NY.

Just look at those charts.... wow, such emergency.





Hope everyone has enjoyed a temporary reprieve, because that's all it was, temporary.

--- Double Post Merged, Nov 27, 2021 ---

Well, sure this is US section, but it's been found in the UK.

There's a distinct possibility it's already here as well.

 

[M3J]

It appears all of our current vaccines are useless against the omicron COVID variant.

Pls tell me you're not actually claiming that it is useless, because that screenshot said nothing about that. It only said scientists are concerned that the mutation COULD bypass immunization, not that it will.

But also, that's the result of not getting vaccinated and/or refusing to wear a mask.

You just called someone dumb, and *I'm* the cunt?

Yes. That's in response to how you reply to others you don't agree with, but go ahead, victimize yourself. Typical right wingers

 

[Jubei_Kibagami]

Meeting the tone that was here before I ever posted for the first time = a right wing action?

Who knew?

--- Double Post Merged, Nov 27, 2021, Original Post Date: Nov 27, 2021 ---

But also, that's the result of not getting vaccinated and/or refusing to wear a mask.

Source?

 

[xi0]

Wow, that sure is interesting and convenient!

 

[M3J]

Same way Rudy doesn't remember Clinton being at Ground 0 after 9/11, despite pics of them together

Republicans are dishonest beyond belief, it's amazing.

 

[kkck]

Yeah, it's absurd to blame any one president for the supply chain crisis. That said, while blaming a president for the crisis is absurd the world's governments should have gotten on solving this more quickly than they did. Shipping companies are reporting record profits in the middle of this disaster that pretty much everyone but them is paying for. As far back as the trump administration they should have at least announced price gouging investigations to major shipping companies... That this late into biden's administration we are barely hearing about this is even worst.

 

[Jubei_Kibagami]

This just in, breaking news!

Politicians of all stripes lie. We're getting reports that's literally their job. Back to you, Bob!




Say nothing of how R's only want to credit R's for positive market metrics, but downplay the negatives during R administrations.
While D's during same administration only harp on the negatives and never acknowledge the positive as a personal success of the administration, but instead the result of market forces beyond the admin's controls. Such as the cost of crude or a certain DJIA/S&P hitting new highs.

And the inverse is true during D administrations.

Shocking stuff I know.

OK, continue the Team R vs Team D super high-brow, super objective discussion.

 

[Sanity Check]

Yeah, it's absurd to blame any one president for the supply chain crisis.

Who deserves blame for the crisis, if not the President?

I would be curious to know.

 

[kkck]

Who deserves blame for the crisis, if not the President?

I would be curious to know.

Welp, what caused this situation was high demand which collapsed ports worldwide which in turn gave shipping companies the opportunity to increase their prices to whatever they wanted. Pretty much the market. Of course, the situation is made worst by a number of other factors as well. So... how exactly do you think trump (since this disaster started at least back in early 2020 with some shenanigans dating back to 2019 and beyond) is responsible here?

 

[Jubei_Kibagami]

25 year look at the US demand for imports. Raw data. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/imports

There was a rebound after demand fell off a cliff (covid).

We're up marginally from the pre-covid highs. (also right where you'd expect to be for a line of best-fit that also correlates nicely to population increases/economic activity).

Demand could be absorbed and accommodated just fine at that point, pre-cov.

Now it suddenly cannot.

This also is much, much less a problem for Eastern ports.

California is a particular disaster when it comes to trucking due to regulations.






The line that this is a result of demand run amok is yet another partisan, apologist lie. This isn't a function of the market taking a shit, but the problem is elsewhere, more likely interventionist measures.

 

[M3J]

Welp, what caused this situation was high demand which collapsed ports worldwide which in turn gave shipping companies the opportunity to increase their prices to whatever they wanted. Pretty much the market. Of course, the situation is made worst by a number of other factors as well. So... how exactly do you think trump (since this disaster started at least back in early 2020 with some shenanigans dating back to 2019 and beyond) is responsible here?

I think he thinks Trump isn't responsible, just Biden.

 

[Sanity Check]

Welp, what caused this situation was high demand which collapsed ports worldwide which in turn gave shipping companies the opportunity to increase their prices to whatever they wanted. Pretty much the market. Of course, the situation is made worst by a number of other factors as well. So... how exactly do you think trump (since this disaster started at least back in early 2020 with some shenanigans dating back to 2019 and beyond) is responsible here?

Oh. So that's what you think is happening.

Ah so. Ah so.

That's a much better response than your normal shtick. You're getting better @ this.

I think he thinks Trump isn't responsible, just Biden.

What is happening is obvious.

To anyone who paid attention to markets, finance and the economy over the past 10 years.

(Which is far fewer than you might think.)

--- Double Post Merged, Nov 30, 2021, Original Post Date: Nov 30, 2021 ---

This is from 2009 and says more about the current state of things.

Than most of what you see published in 2021.

We're moving backwards, fam.

 

[Jubei_Kibagami]

The supply chain was just fine 18 months ago.

In that time period we've had, IDK, something happen and continues to happen.

The response to which has consequences both intended and unintended. Responses such as the creation of 6 ***TRILLION*** in new $$$ (this is monetary inflation, and leads to higher prices, namely the cost of freight, fuel, and other shipping costs in this case). And vax mandates (putting a de facto negative pressure on hiring/retention in every industry, namely trucking and port workers in this case). Or blue-state restrictive trucking practices (you can't even roll in CA without an truck/engine newer than 2010 for instance).

Red states are better off with trucker and port employee shortages not as bad, and trying to accommodate some of the traffic to the big, blue state ports.

Florida Ports Council urges cargo ships to use Florida ports to avoid California logjam

As dozens of cargo ships sit backlogged off the coast of California, a global supply chain nightmare gets worse, which experts say will lead to the raising of prices of goods for consumers as demand outweighs supply. But the Florida Ports Council believes they have a solution to the problem.

www.abcactionnews.com

Could landlocked south Texas help a backlogged US supply chain?

A Mexican highway that connects with Texas ports of entry might be an alternative to California water ports

www.theguardian.com

But, sure, nothing like any of that has anything to do with any Democrat operatives. This is all just naturally-occurring market forces. lol.

 

[kkck]

25 year look at the US demand for imports. Raw data. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/imports

There was a rebound after demand fell off a cliff (covid).

We're up marginally from the pre-covid highs. (also right where you'd expect to be for a line of best-fit that also correlates nicely to population increases/economic activity).

Demand could be absorbed and accommodated just fine at that point, pre-cov.

Now it suddenly cannot.

This also is much, much less a problem for Eastern ports.

California is a particular disaster when it comes to trucking due to regulations.

The line that this is a result of demand run amok is yet another partisan, apologist lie. This isn't a function of the market taking a shit, but the problem is elsewhere, more likely interventionist measures.

I don't think that specific data is necessarily the one you need to look at. Since you are looking purely at US purchases without considering the situation at specific ports across different countries. And production sites across different countries.. With covid you had back in 2020 a pretty big dip in demand for stuff. Of course, the impact of that is not just companies producing less. Companies need shit to produce which is forecasted months ahead of time... But with the dip in demand it all goes to shit basically. Orders cancelled across the board, companies closing... pure chaos. And then comes the recovery. Suddenly everyone is buying a lot of shit at once very quickly. And all that shit gets sent to ports... which are already working at way beyond capacity. Ships filled to the brim. That compounded with a container scarcity since the dip in demand caused containers to stop going to where they would be needed. And this is where I would argue price gouging is potentially (potentially in that you need an actual investigation to determine whether there was a crime here) an issue. Sure, you have a backlog of containers and not nearly enough room in ships to move them... But the ships are still working at capacity and shipping companies are making their money. And yet they basically take advantage and increase the cost of a container to pretty much whatever number. Most I've heard of so far is 26k a container from china (whereas before it would cost between 2500-3500), 10k another from india, 10k brasil, 10k russia (give or take)...

For a tad more context.... say you have a collapsed port. You still need to move your shit to other places. So if a port is collapsed... you simply look at the next... So more collapsed ports. Plan c? Airports. Hence why air freights have doubled or even tripled (As far as I have seen). Also worth noting that an air freight was to begin many times more expensive than a sea freight and even without a crisis the prices were more volatile. To that you can also add china's energy crisis which of course affects production of goods...

So, there was always going to be a scarcity of products but shipping companies took advantage in spite of the chaos and increased their prices just because they could thus adding A LOT to what already was a comically large shit pile.

--- Double Post Merged, Nov 30, 2021, Original Post Date: Nov 30, 2021 ---

Oh. So that's what you think is happening.

Ah so. Ah so.

That's a much better response than your normal shtick. You're getting better @ this.




What is happening is obvious.

To anyone who paid attention to markets, finance and the economy over the past 10 years.

(Which is far fewer than you might think.)

--- Double Post Merged, Nov 30, 2021, Original Post Date: Nov 30, 2021 ---

This is from 2009 and says more about the current state of things.

Than most of what you see published in 2021.

We're moving backwards, fam.

Welp, you didn't answer my question so this seems about right for your normal schtick. Is this your peak?

 

[Jubei_Kibagami]

I don't think that specific data is necessarily the one you need to look at. Since you are looking purely at US purchases without considering the situation at specific ports across different countries. And production sites across different countries.. With covid you had back in 2020 a pretty big dip in demand for stuff. Of course, the impact of that is not just companies producing less. Companies need shit to produce which is forecasted months ahead of time... But with the dip in demand it all goes to shit basically. Orders cancelled across the board, companies closing... pure chaos. And then comes the recovery. Suddenly everyone is buying a lot of shit at once very quickly. And all that shit gets sent to ports... which are already working at way beyond capacity. Ships filled to the brim. That compounded with a container scarcity since the dip in demand caused containers to stop going to where they would be needed. And this is where I would argue price gouging is potentially (potentially in that you need an actual investigation to determine whether there was a crime here) an issue. Sure, you have a backlog of containers and not nearly enough room in ships to move them... But the ships are still working at capacity and shipping companies are making their money. And yet they basically take advantage and increase the cost of a container to pretty much whatever number. Most I've heard of so far is 26k a container from china (whereas before it would cost between 2500-3500), 10k another from india, 10k brasil, 10k russia (give or take)...

For a tad more context.... say you have a collapsed port. You still need to move your shit to other places. So if a port is collapsed... you simply look at the next... So more collapsed ports. Plan c? Airports. Hence why air freights have doubled or even tripled (As far as I have seen). Also worth noting that an air freight was to begin many times more expensive than a sea freight and even without a crisis the prices were more volatile. To that you can also add china's energy crisis which of course affects production of goods...

So, there was always going to be a scarcity of products but shipping companies took advantage in spite of the chaos and increased their prices just because they could thus adding A LOT to what already was a comically large shit pile.

I'm not disagreeing covid cost shutdowns. Or cut-backs. Or shipping cancellations. Or other mitigating factors (what happened in Panama, fuel shortages in China, etc).

My point with the graph is to show that current demand is not out of control. It just meets and slightly exceeds pre-covid highs as you can see. The issues with the fickleness of JIT manufacturing and cancellations are the backdrop. All things the same we'd accommodate demand just as easily as any previous increase if covid never happened. And we'd expect gross demand to be right around where it is. It is only 'extreme' in relation to the nose-dive of demand that flat-lined freight from covid. Now, we're attempting to resuscitate that relative flat-line. Being very careful to ONLY enact measures that are supportive as opposed to constrictive would be the name of the game. Consider a fire that's dying, almost out: you want to add fuel and oxygen, not stifle it. What is happening is the later option.

Now, take that backdrop and throw a wrench in the gears (barely operational already). That's what is happening with other factors. A loss of 10% in any industry is catastrophic - particularly in trucking - particularly with the above backdrop. What affect do you think trucker shortages alone and in of itself is having when we need 17 cross-country trips PER ACTIVE TRUCKER just to clear the backlog? Stop the madness. That's just one outcome of vaxx mandates for instance. Also add rail workers and longshoremen. And anyone else that's ancillary in this industry.

As for freight costs, yes, they've spiked.

Imagine you run a company. You've operated on VERY THIN margins for decades. Suddenly, there's no freight to move. Fuel is up. The little containers you can move just sit off-shore. Time is money and you're losing every hour - opportunity costs. You also have a crew to pay and diesel/food costs that are ongoing. If you haven't sold your company (there's been a lot of consolidation globally, not just the fault or design of any president nor the US itself), then you HAVE to ratchet up prices. Like, a lot. You can't even get containers back to China (the epicenter, who is having its own issues) without them being empty, essentially losing money there as well. The glut is in countries that import a lot, namely the US. We're awash in containers while the supply is drying up elsewhere. The shipping industry, any shipping industry, only really makes money if you can charge transportation both ways. Well, that ship has sailed. Largely because we can't unload.

Every shipping company has felt this phenom globally. This isn't just the big boogeyman of evil corporations price-fixing. Much less even US companies - this, again, is global. Big Shipping really isn't a thing as it's a commodity and has operated lean to keep customers happy with cheap shipping, again, for decades. It's not like we haven't enjoyed that. Getting things back on track has created a ripple effect that will be painful (expensive) for a while, some say this will be built in moving forward.

But the high costs of shipping aren't causing a backlog. That would be the tail wagging the dog.

Now, add monetary inflation (helicopter stimmies) to the mix. That's diluting the oxygen in the room for that fire I mentioned.




A lot of what we're doing in a response to everything isn't helping at all. In some cases it would be better to do nothing at all. You can't effect change in one place and expect that not to spill over in others in a global economy, or any macro sense. Chasing Zero Covid (impossible) might sound good on paper, but that has other consequences that no one is acknowledging.

--- Double Post Merged, Nov 30, 2021, Original Post Date: Nov 30, 2021 ---

How about something more unifying (transitory lol)?

Big names being mentioned in the Ghislaine trial by the Epstein pilot...

 

[kkck]

I'm not disagreeing covid cost shutdowns. Or cut-backs. Or shipping cancellations. Or other mitigating factors (what happened in Panama, fuel shortages in China, etc).

My point with the graph is to show that current demand is not out of control. It just meets and slightly exceeds pre-covid highs as you can see. The issues with the fickleness of JIT manufacturing and cancellations are the backdrop. All things the same we'd accommodate demand just as easily as any previous increase if covid never happened. And we'd expect gross demand to be right around where it is. It is only 'extreme' in relation to the nose-dive of demand that flat-lined freight from covid. Now, we're attempting to resuscitate that relative flat-line. Being very careful to ONLY enact measures that are supportive as opposed to constrictive would be the name of the game. Consider a fire that's dying, almost out: you want to add fuel and oxygen, not stifle it. What is happening is the later option.

Now, take that backdrop and throw a wrench in the gears (barely operational already). That's what is happening with other factors. A loss of 10% in any industry is catastrophic - particularly in trucking - particularly with the above backdrop. What affect do you think trucker shortages alone and in of itself is having when we need 17 cross-country trips PER ACTIVE TRUCKER just to clear the backlog? Stop the madness. That's just one outcome of vaxx mandates for instance. Also add rail workers and longshoremen. And anyone else that's ancillary in this industry.

As for freight costs, yes, they've spiked.

Imagine you run a company. You've operated on VERY THIN margins for decades. Suddenly, there's no freight to move. Fuel is up. The little containers you can move just sit off-shore. Time is money and you're losing every hour - opportunity costs. You also have a crew to pay and diesel/food costs that are ongoing. If you haven't sold your company (there's been a lot of consolidation globally, not just the fault or design of any president nor the US itself), then you HAVE to ratchet up prices. Like, a lot. You can't even get containers back to China (the epicenter, who is having its own issues) without them being empty, essentially losing money there as well. The glut is in countries that import a lot, namely the US. We're awash in containers while the supply is drying up elsewhere. The shipping industry, any shipping industry, only really makes money if you can charge transportation both ways. Well, that ship has sailed. Largely because we can't unload.

Every shipping company has felt this phenom globally. This isn't just the big boogeyman of evil corporations price-fixing. Much less even US companies - this, again, is global. Big Shipping really isn't a thing as it's a commodity and has operated lean to keep customers happy with cheap shipping, again, for decades. It's not like we haven't enjoyed that. Getting things back on track has created a ripple effect that will be painful (expensive) for a while, some say this will be built in moving forward.

But the high costs of shipping aren't causing a backlog. That would be the tail wagging the dog.

Now, add monetary inflation (helicopter stimmies) to the mix. That's diluting the oxygen in the room for that fire I mentioned.

A lot of what we're doing in a response to everything isn't helping at all. In some cases it would be better to do nothing at all. You can't effect change in one place and expect that not to spill over in others in a global economy, or any macro sense. Chasing Zero Covid (impossible) might sound good on paper, but that has other consequences that no one is acknowledging.

Demand out of control is weird framing. Setting aside that is has increased, and very suddenly at that, the core of the issue is bottlenecks at different parts in the supply chains. Most importantly ports in china (and india, china, brasil...)... So sure, that graph shows presumably reasonable demand. But it doesn't show you months worth of containers stuck in china. Or in the case of the US dozens or hundreds of shipping boats just sitting outside US ports because they don't have the personnel to unload cargo. And the cost associated with the cargo just sitting in places aimlessly. And of course, shipping companies taking advantage of that to potentially price gouge. Not sure of how that graph is made but... maybe the numbers there are affected by the current situation and would be well higher without the supply chain issues?

 

[Jubei_Kibagami]

Demand out of control is weird framing. Setting aside that is has increased, and very suddenly at that, the core of the issue is bottlenecks at different parts in the supply chains. Most importantly ports in china (and india, china, brasil...)... So sure, that graph shows presumably reasonable demand. But it doesn't show you months worth of containers stuck in china. Or in the case of the US dozens or hundreds of shipping boats just sitting outside US ports because they don't have the personnel to unload cargo. And the cost associated with the cargo just sitting in places aimlessly. And of course, shipping companies taking advantage of that to potentially price gouge. Not sure of how that graph is made but... maybe the numbers there are affected by the current situation and would be well higher without the supply chain issues?

Do you think I just posted a chart and walked away with nothing else to say?

I've addressed, or at least acknowledged, everything you have brought up, and a little in part of how they're all related as per reading a lot from various sources.

*I* am not the one framing this issue as a function of demand gone rogue (that's the 'look over there!' tactic from the left). It's only a (relative) vast leap compared to the chasm of covid. The shutdown is proving expensive to rectify. Now, layer in alllll the other issues.

The entire point is that this isn't the 'fault' of demand. Demand can be absorbed, at levels present, in of itself. The issue is the shutdown and other mitigating factors making it worse - namely the response to the shutdown. Which I've itemized at least in part.

If you listen to the media you'd think too many people ordering shit Ikea or kettlebells is the problem. It isn't, and it's not even close to being the problem. People want a relatively little more than they had been wanting pre-covid, and they're expecting that from a freight structure that was nearly terminal. And politicians are holding a pillow over its face while in the ICU.

We don't even have the capacity to absorb pre-covid demand with everything else in play.





If you had a shipping company and it took you 2-3x longer to unload (where you cannot be doing another load - opportunity lost) while you had to continue to burn fuel and pay employees on a load that should have already been docked and unloaded, and THEN you had to return empty, what do you think you'd do to your rates? Just a 10% bump? Again, shipping is a very low-margin business. At least historically. This is unprecedented. And global.

 

[Sanity Check]

Welp, you didn't answer my question so this seems about right for your normal schtick. Is this your peak?

Forget Trump and partisanship.

How do we fix supply chain issues?

Please don't say the answer is for people to sacrifice more freedom, rights or pay higher taxes.

Don't say the answer is to attack corporations and billionaires and kill jobs. And don't say its Trump's fault when you can't connect him to any of it using basic facts or logic.