American Politics

[shionoro]

How popular is Donald Trump?

Silver Bulletin approval ratings for President Trump — and all presidents since Truman.

www.natesilver.net

Trump isn't particularly less popular now than he has been before. IIRC with those numbers he is more popular than biden was most of his presidency and more popular than in his 2016 term. I think both got as low as 36-37% approval so 41% with all the shit that's going on is all things considered decent for trump.

These numbers do not accurately reflect what is happening. When it comes to being unpopular, the question "do you like/dislike" does not measure how intensely someone hates a politician. If a leftist says he does not like Biden, that is one thing. If even moderates hate Trump with a raging passion and are willing to go on street for it, that is another.

Biden maintained the Senate in his mideterm and his house losses were relatively small. Trump is losing one special election after another. I think it cannot be overstated how motivated progressives are right now to get Trump out of office, despite hating democrats too. On the other hand, even in his own circles, the Epstein files are closing in on Trump.

Biden was never in a situation quite like this at least until the debate.

 

[James Rye]

The Epstein files are really weird. Like anyone can tell some real bad shit happened with grooming, rape, human trafficking, murder, drugs, the whole list up and down yet for some reason nothing is happening. Like in the EU you had several people resigning just for being associated and a prince basically losing everything for clearly being involved in rape. Yet in the Us? Nothing. Cricket sounds. Trump is the most mentioned name in all released files so far and whoever is in the crew to censor the files is doing either a pisspoor job due incompetence or does it so intentionally. Like I get there are very powerful people in there, but come on. I really hope they don't drag this out for the next couple years, that would be insane.

 

[M3J]

Republicans will not impeach Trump because under him, they're getting what they want, and to go against him could be worse than supporting him and losing elections, because at least they have MAGA support. The only reason they'd have to impeach him is if he somehow affected their bottom line.

 

[kkck]

These numbers do not accurately reflect what is happening. When it comes to being unpopular, the question "do you like/dislike" does not measure how intensely someone hates a politician. If a leftist says he does not like Biden, that is one thing. If even moderates hate Trump with a raging passion and are willing to go on street for it, that is another.

Biden maintained the Senate in his mideterm and his house losses were relatively small. Trump is losing one special election after another. I think it cannot be overstated how motivated progressives are right now to get Trump out of office, despite hating democrats too. On the other hand, even in his own circles, the Epstein files are closing in on Trump.

Biden was never in a situation quite like this at least until the debate.

I don't see why the intensity of the hate matters, a vote is still a vote. If trump's still more liked than biden was I don't see moderates taking to the street to fight as you suggest. Even on the immigration front, the folk protesting most likely are folk who weren't fans of trump to begin with (sanctuary cities lean liberal of course) and the rest of folk have more diverse views on immigration. More importantly, hating trump does not mean people change their political stances. There was an element of that when biden beat trump but... biden's presidency was so bad that trump still handily won his second term.

If there's one thing that can take down trump it's the economy. The weakened USD, arbitrary tariffs and trump's attempts to mess with the federal reserve (which is magnitudes of orders more important than who is president) are likely to cause a downturn even if for now things seem to hold up. The question is whether chickens come home to roost this term or the next.

 

[shionoro]

I don't see why the intensity of the hate matters, a vote is still a vote. If trump's still more liked than biden was I don't see moderates taking to the street to fight as you suggest. Even on the immigration front, the folk protesting most likely are folk who weren't fans of trump to begin with (sanctuary cities lean liberal of course) and the rest of folk have more diverse views on immigration. More importantly, hating trump does not mean people change their political stances. There was an element of that when biden beat trump but... biden's presidency was so bad that trump still handily won his second term.

If there's one thing that can take down trump it's the economy. The weakened USD, arbitrary tariffs and trump's attempts to mess with the federal reserve (which is magnitudes of orders more important than who is president) are likely to cause a downturn even if for now things seem to hold up. The question is whether chickens come home to roost this term or the next.

It very much does. Someone who dislikes Biden might vote for him, someone who likes Trump might not.

A motivated votership means more people are canvassing, more people are talking to their family and friends about politics and more people help witht hings like voter registration (or bother to verify it). Similarly, more people go to the vote in places that are not seen as battle ground, creating more chances for upset wins that were not seen as likely.

On the other hand, even people who generally like Trump are often not enthusiastic about him anymore, after all the horrible things he has done. That has the opposite effect: Even if they might vote for him, they are less enthusiastic to talk about politics with their environment, less likely to canvass, less likely to proudly wear Trump merch and so on.

These two effects also work on donations, of course.

Especially in the midterms, when all these small districts are in play but Trump is not on the ballot that means: The people who still love Trump are less likely to bother going to the vote, because Trump is not on the ballot. The people who hate Trump with a burning passion and want to take his power away will still definitely fight like hell in all these little districts.

 

[M3J]

On the other hand, even people who generally like Trump are often not enthusiastic about him anymore, after all the horrible things he has done. That has the opposite effect: Even if they might vote for him, they are less enthusiastic to talk about politics with their environment, less likely to canvass, less likely to proudly wear Trump merch and so on.

As someone who lives in USA, and in a red county next to a red county, you're wrong. There are plenty who are still Trump supporters, and we have news hosts defending Trump and pedophiles, same person who admitted she'd rather have her daughters be assaulted by grown men than play with transgender women.

Trump supporters are more than happy to defend him and blame immigrants for anything and everything. Did you not hear about Turning Point holding a concert to counter Bad Bunny's concert? As long as Trump is a white supremacist, there will be a huge group of people that will support him.

 

[shionoro]

As someone who lives in USA, and in a red county next to a red county, you're wrong. There are plenty who are still Trump supporters, and we have news hosts defending Trump and pedophiles, same person who admitted she'd rather have her daughters be assaulted by grown men than play with transgender women.

Trump supporters are more than happy to defend him and blame immigrants for anything and everything. Did you not hear about Turning Point holding a concert to counter Bad Bunny's concert? As long as Trump is a white supremacist, there will be a huge group of people that will support him.

Of course countries differ, but if the latest elections are anything to go by, we can clearly see that republicans tend to stay home and democrats tend to vote. This is a good poll to go by for this: https://www.pewresearch.org/politic...-now-say-they-support-his-policies-and-plans/

The question "Do you support most/all of trump's decisions" has fallen from 18 to 12 and 49 to 44 with republican leaning people from shortly after the 2024 election to now. That might seem small, but especially the 18 to 12 drop among the die hard supporters seems relevant to me.

They will still vote for Trump obviously, that is clear, but the intensity of their support falling means fewer people give huge chunks of money and time for Trump. And that makes it harder to get the normies out to vote.

 

[Shobu_Yoruichi]

What wonderful things is he doing?

It is pretty much what i previously pointed out.
Besides VE, the fact that he has collaboration with El Salvador, changed the tone of Colombia towards US and the tariffs and prohibitions regarding selling oil to Cuba are wonderful. I would add the operations at El Paso against Sinaloa drug-dealers cartels are important as well.

In a global scale, the topics about India and Russia are wonderful as well, all that can help to weaken China is welcomed.

From my POV, i'm so jealous of ICE, that is a thing every country is required to have, but i would not put in the level of 'wonders' as in my upper statement since it is a breaking point to many, but still you get my point.

What value is that document when the Executive branch does whatever it wants regardless of what is said in it? and the Leglislative branch does nothing to stop him? The Judicial branch is the only branch blocking some of his administration's orders, but the Supreme court often undoes that, and when they don't he threatens sitting judges. If you're not willing to admit what that looks like, then you're just willfully ignorant. Nothing about this is "diminute".

As long as those powers are split and exist, it means he's far from being an autocrat. If by 01/21/29 he's still at charge, then i gotta start sharing your point though.

 

[M3J]

Of course countries differ, but if the latest elections are anything to go by, we can clearly see that republicans tend to stay home and democrats tend to vote. This is a good poll to go by for this: https://www.pewresearch.org/politic...-now-say-they-support-his-policies-and-plans/

The question "Do you support most/all of trump's decisions" has fallen from 18 to 12 and 49 to 44 with republican leaning people from shortly after the 2024 election to now. That might seem small, but especially the 18 to 12 drop among the die hard supporters seems relevant to me.

They will still vote for Trump obviously, that is clear, but the intensity of their support falling means fewer people give huge chunks of money and time for Trump. And that makes it harder to get the normies out to vote.

That's an okay poll, but what matters are the elections. Granted that Dems have been able to turn seats blue, but the republicans they went up against aren't Trump. We don't know if republicans will still try to vote for Trump if it somehow gets to third term, or if they'll all come out in droves to try to keep the seat red.

Most republicans will continue to fall for propaganda and vote for red, or be re-energized to vote red.

 

[shionoro]

From my POV, i'm so jealous of ICE, that is a thing every country is required to have, but i would not put in the level of 'wonders' as in my upper statement since it is a breaking point to many, but still you get my point.

I do not really get what there is to envy about ICE. A lot of innocent people suffer or die due to ICE with no actual gain for anyone in the US. You are not looking at a reduction in crime, neither economical betterment, neither a better immigration process. You are just looking at violence and I wonder why anyone would like for brown people to be brutalized for no good reason.

 

[Shobu_Yoruichi]

I do not really get what there is to envy about ICE. A lot of innocent people suffer or die due to ICE with no actual gain for anyone in the US. You are not looking at a reduction in crime, neither economical betterment, neither a better immigration process. You are just looking at violence and I wonder why anyone would like for brown people to be brutalized for no good reason.

A police force that proactively works in order to catch criminals it is something that in most countries doesn't happen. Your points are well taken and appreciated, for sure.

 

[xi0]

A police force that proactively works in order to catch criminals it is something that in most countries doesn't happen. Your points are well taken and appreciated, for sure.

1. ICE isn't a police force even though they're known to lie about being police officers
2. They kill citizens who aren't criminals
3. They cover their faces because they know the job they do is morally reprehensible and compromises themselves and their families

 

[Tonix]

A police force that proactively works in order to catch criminals it is something that in most countries doesn't happen. Your points are well taken and appreciated, for sure.

ICE isn’t proactively preventing crime. They are committing crimes. They are abducting, brutalizing, and murdering innocent people, all of which has been ruled illegal by multiple courts.


They aren’t fucking precogs, they are brown shirts.

If you envy that then… yikes.

 

[James Rye]

Oh, Israel and US "preemptive strike" vs Iran. Bet you if Iran did a "preemptive strike" vs Israel no one would call it that way.

So basically the talks are dead and now they try to force Iran to accept their conditions.

Welp.

 

[Tonix]

Oh, Israel and US "preemptive strike" vs Iran. Bet you if Iran did a "preemptive strike" vs Israel no one would call it that way.

So basically the talks are dead and now they try to force Iran to accept their conditions.

Welp.

Just another war to keep two dictators in power and distract everyone from the Epstein files and genocide that’s happening.

 

[kkck]

Since trump took chavez i figured an iran attack at least on the table but what i didn't have on my bingo card was the US having the capability to take out Iran's leadership in less than a day. My guess would have been more than a few weeks.

 

[shionoro]

This sure doesn't look like it is according to plan.

 

[kkck]

I wouldn't think there was that much of a plan beyond what we are seeing.

 

[shionoro]

I do certainly think there was an expectation of Iran's resistance being way smaller than this.

 

[James Rye]

Given the confusing and contradicting statements of the US government so far, it looks like they got neither a real plan nor an actual definition of what "victory" is supposed to look like. They seemed to have hoped that by taking out the leadership the Iranian people would rise up and overthrow the government for them and now that is not happening.
Israel at least has a clear goal, an unrealistic one but could be achieved with many months of bombing. And ofc boots on the ground. US boots, not Israel ones. Basically destroy every single missile Iran owns, every ship, every tank, every soldier and every mullah. Yeah. Fantastic plan. Wow. Bibi is a genius. /sarcasm off

Iran will most likely become the Balkan of the Middle East at this point depending on how long this war (or not "war" according to the US government) gonna go.