Theory Final Tournament Line-up Discussion/Predictions

[ChinkyCandie]

Which combos do you think would be able to take on Germany's D1?

 

[Kaoz]

Byoudouin/Tanegashima.

But no, of course it's not that simple. First of all, looking at the matches so far, it's almost certain that Japan's pair will include a MSer, so any double HSer combination can basically be thrown out without too much worry. The problem that emerges is that while several of the HSers seem to have pro-level qualities in at least one or two areas, the MSers not so much. Furthermore, Bertie and Dankmar are supposedly able to employ pretty much any tactic, so identifying one weak area and targeting that doesn't seem feasible either.

This all leads me to believe that any pair that wants to stand a chance needs a certain amount of unpredictability. From the HSers, the best candidates in that area are probably Tanegashima and Irie, and from the MSers you're looking at Fuji, Niou, Oshitari and Sengoku. So I'd think that whichever combination of those guys has the best synergy is Japan's best bet.

 

[ShadowHeart]

Byoudouin/Tanegashima.

But no, of course it's not that simple. First of all, looking at the matches so far, it's almost certain that Japan's pair will include a MSer, so any double HSer combination can basically be thrown out without too much worry. The problem that emerges is that while several of the HSers seem to have pro-level qualities in at least one or two areas, the MSers not so much. Furthermore, Bertie and Dankmar are supposedly able to employ pretty much any tactic, so identifying one weak area and targeting that doesn't seem feasible either.

This all leads me to believe that any pair that wants to stand a chance needs a certain amount of unpredictability. From the HSers, the best candidates in that area are probably Tanegashima and Irie, and from the MSers you're looking at Fuji, Niou, Oshitari and Sengoku. So I'd think that whichever combination of those guys has the best synergy is Japan's best bet.

Atobe/Irie will beat them.

 

[ChinkyCandie]

Irie/Tanegashima would be an interesting pairing.

 

[ShadowHeart]

Really looking forward to the Germany match 4 games can go either way.

 

[Kaoz]

Really looking forward to the Germany match 4 games can go either way.

...what's the fifth one that can't go either way? Unless you're implying that the round will end 3-1?

 

[ShadowHeart]

...what's the fifth one that can't go either way? Unless you're implying that the round will end 3-1?

I was referring to Volk, QP, Tezuka and Bertie/Dankmar matches. But after thinking about it the match will be like other big games. As for the score I think it'll be like the 1st Hyotei and 3rd court shuffle matches.

 

[Kaoz]

Since it's been well over a year since I last posted a comprehensive line-up prediction for the rest of the tournament and I've been thinking about the question the past couple days, here's a theory that approaches the problem from another angle, using the line-up against France as basis for potential patterns. The second premise is that the middle schoolers are inherently more important than almost all of the high schoolers (except for Byoudouin and Tokugawa) and because of that, Japan will never field the theoretically best line-up, even taking stamina into consideration.

Let's start off then by looking at the France line-up again:
D2 Kimijima/Shiraishi
D1 Mouri/Yanagi
S3 Ryoma
S2 Sanada
S1 Duke

One way to look at this is that we have two major middle schoolers in singles and two minor middle schoolers in doubles, the latter each paired with a high schooler to mentor and support them. Finally, there's one important high schooler in singles - while Duke himself isn't a major character, he can connect to Byoudouin later on, so I think the idea still holds.

In the next step, let's divide the middle schoolers into major and minor characters:

• Major: (Ryoma), Sanada, Atobe, Yukimura, Kintarou, Fuji
• Minor: Shiraishi, Yanagi, Marui, Niou, Kite, Kirihara, Sengoku, Yushi

I won't go into detail as to why I put those characters where they are (ask if anything seems unclear I guess), but in general the ones classified as major have consistently had matches and screentime whereas the others did not. Niou is a bit of an edge case in this regard, but since he was a stand-in for someone who couldn't be there half the time, I wouldn't really group him with the other six at this point.

If the idea from the France match carries over into the following rounds, Atobe, Yukimura, Kintarou and Fuji will all play singles. This isn't a novel suggestion or anything, but it would certainly be feasible to imagine some of them in doubles, e.g. Atobe/Irie. The other, once again not new, problem is Ryoma. I'm still convinced he'll have the final match of the tournament, personally, so we end up with five players for four slots. As such, I also continue to believe that an extra match is likely. This could be against Germany in the semis (which would make some sense since we know eight German players already) or in the finals (Ryoma vs Ryoga in this case, which would be consistent with no one playing two regular matches).

Let's look at the doubles next. This time, we need four characters out of six. Kite and Kirihara are pretty much guaranteed to play in my eyes since they've had similar development to Shiraishi - one match during the camp and then a path for improvement during the group league. I also think Yushi had his moment of glory when he shut down the special skill that defeated the world's no. 8 and rescued Momoshiro. He didn't have anything going on during the camp, so he's the least likely to make an appearance I think.

This leaves us with two of Marui, Niou and Sengoku. I already pitched Niou as appearing a lot earlier, plus he was on the same team during the group league as Atobe, Yukimura, Sanada, Kintarou and Fuji, all of whom I put into the major characters category, so we may see him again. Finally, I think Sengoku is more likely than Marui. While Sengoku hasn't hit a single shot in all of NPoT, he has appeared quite a bit in connection with Akutsu and I think it's possible to continue Akutsu's story in some way like this without him being there. Conversely, while Marui did have a match against the G10, he wasn't involved with the plot at all otherwise. In fact, I'm pretty sure he's had less lines than Sengoku since the team arrived in Australia.

Last but not least, we need some doubles partners for those four middle schoolers. Possible choices:

• Duke, Kimijima, Mouri, (Byoudouin), Tanegashima, (Tokugawa), Oni, Ohmagari, Kaji, Ochi, Date, Hakamada, Irie, Nakagauchi

As mentioned near the beginning, Byoudouin and Tokugawa would play the two singles matches in my mind. Besides them, Tanegashima, Oni and Irie should be pretty much set. From the rest, I think we can rather comfortably rule out Date, Hakamada and Nakagauchi - I don't see them appearing over any of the G10. That leaves Ohmagari, Kaji and Ochi. Ohmagari is training Kite already, so I feel that will be the extent of his contributions, meaning it's between Kaji and Ochi. Currently I'm leaning more towards Kaji myself since Ochi already had two big matches and I'm not sure he'd be the only HSer besides Tokugawa to end up with three major ones.

In conclusion, we're looking at these characters for the remaining slots:

• Singles: Atobe, Yukimura, Kintarou, Fuji, Ryoma, Byoudouin, Tokugawa
• Doubles: Niou, Kite, Kirihara, Sengoku, Tanegashima, Oni, Kaji, Irie

I think there are many feasible combinations for these guys, but putting down all of them is probably a bit much, so I'll just include two variations to finish this post:

Spoiler: Variation 1

Semifinals
D2 Irie/Niou
D1 Tanegashima/Sengoku
S3 Fuji
S2 Atobe
S1 Byoudouin
Extra Yukimura

Finals
D2 Kaji/Kite
D1 Oni/Kirihara
S3 Kintarou
S2 Tokugawa
S1 Ryoma

Spoiler: Variation 2

Semifinals
D2 Kaji/Sengoku
D1 Tanegashima/Niou
S3 Fuji
S2 Kintarou
S1 Byoudouin

Finals
D2 Irie/Kirihara
D1 Oni/Kite
S3 Atobe
S2 Yukimura
S1 Tokugawa
Extra Ryoma

 

[ChinkyCandie]

Irie/Niou sounds like an interesting pair. I still don't think Byodoin will play against Germany. He'll be saved for the finals singles 1. He is the type of character who'll play the last decider match of the tournament. To be honest, I don't see Tokugawa winning against Switzerland/Spain. I do seem him beating Volk if given another go. I don't see him playing doubles again. I'd consider the story unrealistic if Ryoma plays against a guy 6 years his senior. Whoever plays in the finals singles 1, is too worldly for Ryoma.

I do see Niou pairing up with a HSer against Germany in doubles but not in D1. Germany would overwhelm an interesting Niou pairing. Your variation 1 SF seems more plausible. Just swap out Byodoin for Tokugawa.
I see Kite playing in the semis and not the finals. Same with Kirihara. Oni and/or Byodoin will probably be saved for the finals. Irie and/or Kintaro would work in either SFs or the Fs. Kaji seems to be the sacrificial lamb here. The only advantage he has is speed which may work with with Kite's Shukuchiho.

Semis:
D2: Niou/Ochi (Two doubles specialists and Niou would benefit from Ochi's Mental Assassin)
D1: Omagari/Kite (would put up a good fight but may not win against Germany's No1 doubles pair)
S3: Kaji (he seems to be the sacrificial lamb from the whole team)
S2: Fuji (this slot seems more likely for Tezuka)
S1: Tokugawa

Finals:
D2: Irie/Tanegashima (this would make a formidable and interesting pair)
D1: Kintaro/Oni (Kintaro would probably work well with his HS mentor)
S3: Yukimura
S2: Atobe
S1: Byodoin

Post tournament: Ryoma vs Ryoga.

 

[Kaoz]

I do seem him beating Volk if given another go.

I mean, Volk is considered the strongest player of the tournament, so if Tokugawa can defeat him, I'd think he would stand a chance against Amadeus or Medanore as well. Even if Medanore were to turn out stronger than Volk now that's recovered or if someone were to defeat Medanore in his best condition, I doubt it'd be a blowout victory and would put them heads and shoulders above Volk.

I'd consider the story unrealistic if Ryoma plays against a guy 6 years his senior. Whoever plays in the finals singles 1, is too worldly for Ryoma.

1. Kintarou already did the same thing, why can't Ryoma?
2. Ryoma already did so too anyway against Dodo. Even if they only played one point, he put up a good fight, and that was after already beating thirteen other guys.

Age is a meaningless criterion here. Beyond that, we seem to agree that Ryoma will play against Ryoga (whose age we don't even know by the way), so there's no problem if Ryoga plays S1 in the finals.

I see Kite playing in the semis and not the finals. Same with Kirihara.

I don't know about Akaya, but I do think Kite will play the finals. I think it's meaningful that he was watching Switzerland's match during the first round rather than Germany's or France's.

The only advantage he has is speed which may work with with Kite's Shukuchiho.

He should have formidable technique as well and coming back from his defeat against Oni might have strengthened his mental. I don't think he'll win, but he'll probably play a good match if he ends up making a line-up.

 

[ChinkyCandie]

This is how I see it. In the final, whether against Switzerland or Spain, Tokugawa may not have what it takes to play under pressure during the decider. Byodoin would. Byodoin's goal is to lead Japan to the top of the world. He would achieve that if he played the last match of the tournament.
I'm actually hoping Spain is in the final. Apparently, Medanore (before injury) > Volk > Amadeus. We know nothing about Spain and it would be a huge surprise to all if Amadeus isn't in the final. Switzerland is the highest seed on the other end and upsets aren't irregular. Byodoin has a connection to both Switzerland AND Spain. Switzerland because of Amadeus and Spain because of his Bullfighting of Spain.

Kintaro defeated Hakamada. He's not an amazing character. Compare Hakamada to Oni and it isn't a worthy match worth remembering. Ryoga is bound to be a 3rd year HSer, otherwise he'd be too old to play in the tournament. I don't see Ryoma beating either Volk or Medanore/Amadeus without a ridiculous power-up. He can't even beat his own father. Nanjiroh isn't serious when having a match with Ryoma.

In regards to Kite, I don't think he's strong enough to play against the No.1 or No.2/4 in the world. His tennis will be greatly improved because of Omagari's training but still not against the top 5 in the world.

 

[Hardy]

This is how I see it. In the final, whether against Switzerland or Spain, Tokugawa may not have what it takes to play under pressure during the decider. Byodoin would. Byodoin's goal is to lead Japan to the top of the world. He would achieve that if he played the last match of the tournament.
I'm actually hoping Spain is in the final. Apparently, Medanore (before injury) > Volk > Amadeus. We know nothing about Spain and it would be a huge surprise to all if Amadeus isn't in the final. Switzerland is the highest seed on the other end and upsets aren't irregular. Byodoin has a connection to both Switzerland AND Spain. Switzerland because of Amadeus and Spain because of his Bullfighting of Spain.

Kintaro defeated Hakamada. He's not an amazing character. Compare Hakamada to Oni and it isn't a worthy match worth remembering. Ryoga is bound to be a 3rd year HSer, otherwise he'd be too old to play in the tournament. I don't see Ryoma beating either Volk or Medanore/Amadeus without a ridiculous power-up. He can't even beat his own father. Nanjiroh isn't serious when having a match with Ryoma.

In regards to Kite, I don't think he's strong enough to play against the No.1 or No.2/4 in the world. His tennis will be greatly improved because of Omagari's training but still not against the top 5 in the world.

I'm confident Kaoz was talking about JJ, not Hakamada.

Your argument for Byoudouin playing instead of Tokugawa has little basis really, but I'm kinda lazy to dwelve deeply into it. Just gonna say Tokugawa is the main Hser after all, and he played against the best player in the tournament already.

 

[Kaoz]

I'm confident Kaoz was talking about JJ, not Hakamada.

I was. And Oni as well, for that matter. While it was a blowout in terms of score, Kintarou kept up well after he achieved TnK.

In regards to Kite, I don't think he's strong enough to play against the No.1 or No.2/4 in the world. His tennis will be greatly improved because of Omagari's training but still not against the top 5 in the world.

But... that's all the options there are left. You yourself put him against the no. 1 country in your prediction.

 

[ChinkyCandie]

I put Kite in the semis rather than the finals. And who would be a better doubles partner than his HS mentor? This will be Kite's last match. He'll probably have a good match but lose spectacularly. He'll learn something from it.
Hahaha I completely forgot about JJ.
---
In regards to Tokugawa, defeating Amadeus is possible. However, Tokugawa has a connection with Germany and not Switzerland. In Japan vs France, the 3 singles players have some sort of connection with France. Ryoma and Ludovic fought over Sakuno; Sanada corrected the ninja's Japanese; and Duke was a former French rep.
Byodoin has a connection with Switzerland because of Amadeus and he has some connection with Spain. Whoever is in the finals, Byodoin would play them. Based on connections alone, that why I think Byodoin won't play against Germany.

 

[Kaoz]

I put Kite in the semis rather than the finals.

Yeah, against the top ranked country and even the tournament's no. 1 doubles pair. That's definitely playing against the world no. 1 in every sense.

However, Tokugawa has a connection with Germany and not Switzerland. In Japan vs France, the 3 singles players have some sort of connection with France. Ryoma and Ludovic fought over Sakuno; Sanada corrected the ninja's Japanese; and Duke was a former French rep.

In both Ryoma's and Sanada's case, that connection wasn't created until four chapters before the round started. There's still plenty of time to do the same for Germany and Switzerland/Spain, no matter who's going to play those matches. For that matter, Tokugawa also has a connection to France (at least on the same level as Byoudouin's to Spain), yet he isn't playing against them.

 

[ChinkyCandie]

That's because Duke has the biggest connection to France (from the HSers). Tokugawa is the HSers with the biggest connection with Germany. Byodoin has a connection with whoever is in the finals.
Duke is the highest ranked HSers with a connection with France. Tokugawa is the highest ranked HSer who has a connection with Germany.

 

[Echizen]

I like to see this line-up for japan to face germany : i call it dream match
D2 : Kite/Ohmagari vs Frankensteiner/Siegfried
D1 : Duke/Niou vs Bertie/Schneider
S3 : Fuji vs Tezuka
S2 : Tanegashima vs Volk
S1 : Tokugawa vs Q.P

For Japan vs Switzerland
D2 : Atobe/Irie vs Henry/Peter
D1 : Oni/Kintarou vs Randy/Albert
S3 : Tokugawa Vs tba
S2 : Ryoma vs tba
S1 : Byoudoin Vs Amadeus

For America vs Spain.. i think America will loss 0-3 to Spain or 2-3 with decided match between Ralph and Medanore..

 

[Kaoz]

For America vs Spain.. i think America will loss 0-3 to Spain or 2-3 with decided match between Ralph and Medanore..

If you have Switzerland in the finals, this isn't possible. America plays Switzerland next. The winner plays Spain in the semis and whoever wins there is the final opponent.

 

[ChinkyCandie]

Echizen: I like the Swiss D2 set out. Battle of the beauty mark/mole.

I do think Spain will end up winning 3-2 against USA.

 

[Echizen]

by looking at the quarter final line-up.. america is facing switzerland.. i dont think america can win.. what if ryoga joins swiss ? maybe he will play against america especially ralph.. or maybe he is joining spain.. looking by other perspective, i think ryoga will join swiss rather than spain..maybe there will be a s3 match between amadeus and medanore that resulted in amadeus first lost..ryoga plays s1 for swiss and pick up the win with 3-2..

i dunno what ryoga's motive for luring echizen to join america ??

for semifinal to final, what is the order of match ? does it in s3 d2 s2 d1 s1 orders or starts with two doubles ??

why bismarck became pro ? i think q.p is better than him..

does the tournament registration still open ? for players to switch team l.

can they switch player ? i think duke vs camus is at s2 rather than s1 because i dont think duke can win against camus. he did suffered lost to swiss's double before. what if japan won 3-1 ? duke and camus will not take place.. thats not cool.. we did liked to see all the introduced characters will play their match.. such as greece, hermes n vulcan.. australia, hewitt n crawford..

what do u think Kaoz ?