Games Mafia Game 112 - Panda Game - End Game

[GrySun]

One thing I noticed while making notes, a Spirit Medium would've been so great this game. Knowing who Margi targeted N1 is game winning info right now.

 

[Brandish μ]

So you were testing that, I see... but what does that tell us exactly? Like SK had BP so why shouldn't Mafia have HT or HM in this case if both teams got a sickly each?

Fair point

 

[James Rye]

One thing I noticed while making notes, a Spirit Medium would've been so great this game. Knowing who Margi targeted N1 is game winning info right now.

Yeah, would be great to have SM at this point.

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 9, 2023, Original Post Date: Jun 9, 2023 ---

Fair point

You can still use Necro right? You got some spice left, yes?

 

[GrySun]

This is purely analysis of role list and setup, and what I find believable:

1. Escort + M. Doctor
2. Sickly + Strongman

vs

3. SK + BP

vs

4. Mason + Spy
5. Sickly + Prostitute
6. Investigator + Mortician
7. Bodyguard + Restless Spirit
8. Jesus + Banshee
9. Hider + Innocent Child

5 claims, at least 1 is fake:

10. Healthy Townie + Noble
11. Healthy Townie + Doctor
12. Necro + Necro
13. Mason + Detective
14. Detective + Townie

Of the confirmed townies, we only had 1 conditional killing role, one blocker to prevent kills and one hider to prevent kills, and a Jesus to stall out the game a bit. R. Spirit is some limited voting power.

Mafia had a blocker, a doctor to keep each other safe, sickly with essentially 4 uses to lower town voting power.

What fits this setup?

2 Healthy Townies: A bit much, but goes hand in hand with other roles meant to mislead town and cause mislynches. Town was unlikely to ever use their Sickly, so I believe there'd be no need for Healthy Townie on mafia, nor do rules support that. SK having a town extra role fits because it's just yer lone SK.

Doctor: With 2 killing groups, only avoiding kills via Hider is actually silly to expect, Prostitute can cover 1 killing group somewhat but not 2.

Noble: A bit iffy for town, when the Healthy Townies are already enough to counter powerful mafia Sickly all game. But fits as an additional counter/double edged sword.

Double Necro: actually a hard claim to fake with some roles like sickly and prostitute being able to show you can do stuff. Good failsafe for town losing their linchpins early.

2nd Mason: There clearly has to be one, else Marm would've just laughed about being a solo starting Mason. Never before seen. But Mafia Mason exists too to fill the same niche.

Useless Detective: Would weirdly enough fit the circus the Masons were meant to fill.

Working Detective: Legitimately gives town an investigative role, whereas they don't have any like this.

Townie: Could be Sleeper, and could be valid due to precedent last game.

Whoever the mafias are they masterfully claimed fake roles.

Still, from setup alone, I would conclude from this that if 1 player is mafia, it would be one of the Detectives. Either for Mafia Mason or for the only Townie Omo. Leaving all other players as town.

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 9, 2023, Original Post Date: Jun 9, 2023 ---

So you were testing that, I see... but what does that tell us exactly? Like SK had BP so why shouldn't Mafia have HT or HM in this case if both teams got a sickly each?

SK is a special case hosts gave some love to. In no way can there be town roles randomly on mafias. If you trust Brandish then Sakura is also town. Or alternatively they are both scum.

 

[James Rye]

Personally I think the last Mafia is Baka, with me and marm making the useless investigative Mason circus and Holt the sole real investigative role in the game. A Mafia with a +1 vote and -1 vote make a lot of sense. If they avoid being killed early and manange to get rid of the TP then they could have won on their votes at day 3 if they get the townie number down to 4 if SK had been successful. Day 1 townie dies, night 1 2 townie dies, day 2 1 townie dies, night 2 2 townie dies = 6 dead townies out of 10 in a gaming pool of 14 players with 1 TP, 3 Mafia and 10 Townies. Seems reasonable enough considering if they failed to lynch SK on day 3 the game wouldn't dead and they risk getting killed by SK then plus with the hider, BP and BG/Doc there was enough protection around to have some kills fail as it happened.

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 9, 2023, Original Post Date: Jun 9, 2023 ---

SK is a special case hosts gave some love to. In no way can there be town roles randomly on mafias. If you trust Brandish then Sakura is also town. Or alternatively they are both scum.

I disagree, mostly because I remember at least one Game where Mafia had Healthy on their side as well. But fine by me. I might remember wrongly after all or it was due a game mechanic.

Anyway, I am off for a while. Hopefully Holt comes around and can show us what he found out.

 

[GrySun]

Next I'd try to analyze what can even fail the kills we're missing.

N1: Mafia killed Margi. Gajeel failed on Holt.
N2: Mafia failed on ???. Gajeel failed on Gry.
N3: Mafia killed DD. Gajeel killed GB.

Gajeel failing on me is natural. Why would he fail on Holt? Tatsu did not use Doc N1. Only people who could save Holt would be either Margi/Erin blocking Gajeel, or Erin protecting Holt with Doctor. But why would she protect Holt? Usually you protect the player doing the killing or some super trusted crucial player. I assume Sam sicklied James, either for credibility or some other reason, since he has a lot of spice free to use, leaving Margi in the pool of possible blockers.

What about N2? I don't remember who Tatsu protected. Both Escorts were out of the picture at this point. They either also tried going for me and failed(maybe even with Strongman) which is hard to believe, Tatsu protected a kill or they recruited Holt?

Those are the only possibilities methinks.

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 9, 2023, Original Post Date: Jun 9, 2023 ---

I disagree, mostly because I remember at least one Game where Mafia had Healthy on their side as well. But fine by me. I might remember wrongly after all or it was due a game mechanic.

Anyway, I am off for a while. Hopefully Holt comes around and can show us what he found out.

Do find it if you can, but I doubt it was normal circumstances.

 

[Holt]

Shad death? At this point whoever the last scum is really knows how to stir the pot or they’re getting very desperate. I got guilty on James. Bit disappointed really. I felt fairly certain he would be the last one with Gaj flipping tp.

 

[GrySun]

If 2 mafias are left, we are 4v2:
D5 Town lynch - 3v2
N5 kill - 2v2
Shad revival
D6 start -> 3v2

alternatively, Shad killing N5:
N5 Shad kills townie
D6 start -> 2v2 -> mafia win

N5 Shad kills mafia
D6 start -> 3v1

Notice how both the options where Shad doesn't kill and does kill give us only 1 mislynch before losing the game. So worst case @Shad killing a townie ends the game, best case it doesn't really lower our # of mistakes we can make.

Now calculation with 1 mafia:

If 1 mafia is left, we are 5v1:
D5 Town lynch - 4v1
N5 kill - 3v1
Shad revival
D6 start -> 4v1 -> 1 mislynch possible

N5 Shad kills a townie
D6 start -> 3v1 -> 0 mislynch possible

TL;DR:

Shad's kill is high risk low reward. Ofc Shad if you're reading this I can't stop you and you can go guns blazing, but I believe there's no need for it and just increases chances of failure. I say look at the 3 names you have tagged, look at how this day goes and if you can believe in all of them to be town by the end of the day.

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 9, 2023, Original Post Date: Jun 9, 2023 ---

I'm thinking, is Holt not by far the best lynch today, statistically?

• If Holt dies town, James is confirmed town. If Shad doesn't kill we have 3 confirmed townies going into Day 6. Ofc they would kill James most likely, but this still leaves us with me + Shad confirmed vs Tatsu, Baka or Brandish.
• If 1 is mafia that means at 4v1 we can even make 1 mistake. Brandish confirms Baka's Healthy Townie works. So only possible mafias there are Brandish himself or Tatsumaki. Lynch one, then the other, then win.
• If 2 are mafia that means at 3v2 there are no mistakes. Brandish confirmed Baka instead of Tatsumaki, so it is very unlikely Bran + Tatsu are a team. So it is Baka and Bran. Admittedly the noble vote may screw us up hard and make it a cointoss who wins, but that's just how it goes. Either way, in this case Brand is for sure a mafia and a great shot for Shad to kill if Holt dies town.

But, Brandish blocked GB, that's a fact. So he has to be real Necro. He'd have no need to lie to cover for Baka as a townie. In other words, Holt being the final mafia fits far too well and easily.

Only thing that can jeopardize this plan is if James is Mafia Boss + Mafia Mason. But that's just cruel beyond words.

This would also mean Holt is the final mafia because he isn't setting up a townie for a mislynch, or he already did the numbers and knows it wouldn't suffice.

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 9, 2023 ---

I'm between the 2 Dets for today's lynch. Just that James dying town doesn't tell as much about Holt as Holt dying town tells about James, no?

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 9, 2023 ---

Maybe I went a little overboard on the whole calculus. I will lean back a bit.

 

[Brandish μ]

I'll read this all tomorrow.

Gajeel says he targeted Holt N1 - he hit a mafia here. And it's probably not Holt. I'm gonna say James who is a mason that lynches a mason.

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 9, 2023, Original Post Date: Jun 9, 2023 ---

But, Brandish blocked GB, that's a fact. So he has to be real Necro.

Answer to your game. Only 1 block has been identified so far which aligns with my 1 use.

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 9, 2023 ---

Shad death? At this point whoever the last scum is really knows how to stir the pot or they’re getting very desperate. I got guilty on James. Bit disappointed really. I felt fairly certain he would be the last one with Gaj flipping tp.

MBoss MDet?

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 9, 2023 ---

Don't mind following an accountant style lynch like that one Gry.

G'night

 

[James Rye]

Shad death? At this point whoever the last scum is really knows how to stir the pot or they’re getting very desperate. I got guilty on James. Bit disappointed really. I felt fairly certain he would be the last one with Gaj flipping tp.

See? I knew you would be disappointed, investigating me.^^

@GrySun So do we lynch Holt to check or do we go for the doc or do you want to lynch me and see that I was telling the truth about Mason/Det all along?

Ah, btw - how about the Mafia Noble had Mafia Pirate and stole the Healthy Townie from our Doc? Then that would explain why the sickly move from Brand didn't work on Baka.

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 9, 2023, Original Post Date: Jun 9, 2023 ---

We could check that by Brand using sickly on Tatsu. If it works it means Tatsu no longer has her HT and that it was stolen without her noticing it.

 

[Holt]

Need to organize my thoughts a bit. Brandish should be clear, Gry is confirmed. Not sure if the Shad’s death is in hopes of him taking down another townie or simply reducing the trusted pool. Going to look at this as objectively as possible.

James- Claims Mason/det with guilty on Tatsu, Sam and Me. Unless both of us are scum, he’s paranoid. Would fit (albeit cruelly) with Marm also being paranoid. Both masons were trolls but maybe the damage was intended to be reduced by them discussing and figuring it out between each other ? To be scum he’d have to be Mason/Boss but I think that’s too far even for panda.

Tatsu- doc and Ht. Sole claimed doc and would make sense with 2 killing parties, prost, Bg, Necro could’ve tentatively handle this although with sacrifices. Not putting a doc could be in consideration of SK? Might be a stretch but gotta consider all angles. Ht bit is fine considering the sicklys.

Baka- Noble and HT. Brandish confirms she does have HT, but that could’ve been pirated. Also hasn’t used noble even though she was asked at least once? Although we do know her being recruited should be unlikely(?), if mafia, it’s possible she may have saving the noble for a time when numbers don’t favour. Also arguable that as mafia she would’ve readily used it to gain more credibility. Not sure which it is. Pirate stealing HT would be god-tier as it would’ve worked in her favor regardless of brand targeting her or Tatsu. But I think she already hinted this very early?


Honestly don’t know which way to go. I really thought James had to be the last scum but unless he is boss which is unlikely, then he isn’t. Kinda wish I had checked Tatsu instead of DD previously. There’s still a lot of time so I’ll have to analyze a bit more

 

[James Rye]

As I said, if I had been scum I would have played way differently on day 1.^^

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 9, 2023, Original Post Date: Jun 9, 2023 ---

@GrySun Also this is just an idea of mine, but what if Panda weakened the Mafia in the sense he didn't gave them Mafia Det to find doc, det, etc. easily? Like without that role, gathering information becomes much harder for Mafia and could explain their failed kill because they are "blind" as in don't have a det to check first for night 2 and onwards.

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 9, 2023 ---

@GrySun So what is the plan for today? Lynch Holt after all or lynch Tatsu or lynch somebody else?

@Brandish μ If only you had sickly Tatsu we might know a lot more now...

 

[Tatsumaki]

If Baka is mafia then she was from the beginning because I protected her on N2 (night of missing kill so if there was a recruitment it wasn't her at least.

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 9, 2023, Original Post Date: Jun 9, 2023 ---

I guess I've been trusting her blindly because she claimed D1 like Shad did. I guess I believed both claim right away because I couldn't see how a mafia would take the risk to reveal this early. M noble stays a possibility but to me we should still choose between the dets.

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 9, 2023 ---

@Brandish μ If only you had sickly Tatsu we might know a lot more now

Would we really ? Result would be the same. No sick townie up there and still no reassurance that Baka ain't healthy mafia or something.

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 9, 2023 ---

Same for me you would still be saying I can be scum and HM so

 

[Baka Taichou]

I had Shad as my initial hiding PM but changed later to Tatsu

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 9, 2023, Original Post Date: Jun 9, 2023 ---

So were they hunting me or did they just want Shad to shoot a townie Tatsu?

I cannot believe they would leave Brand or Holt alive.

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 9, 2023 ---

This implies either that Brand or Holt or both are scum, or that Tatsu is town and they legit were afraid to fail a kill this late in the game.

But then why not kill Tatsu?

This mafia‘s decisionmaking escapes me.

yea I think they were definitely hunting you, since you mentioned you've been doing it till then. I thought they might and hoped you'd think about swapping hiding places, glad that you did.

WDYM this would make tatsu town? Though yea I would have imagined they'd go for the doc even if they'd kill brand instead, but if doc protected bran then they'd waste their kill, honestly expected to see my name today in the dead post idk why they didn't.

I hope sickly was placed on me at least and confirmed, barely starting to read now so idk what was said.

 

[James Rye]

If Baka is mafia then she was from the beginning because I protected her on N2 (night of missing kill so if there was a recruitment it wasn't her at least.

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 9, 2023, Original Post Date: Jun 9, 2023 ---

I guess I've been trusting her blindly because she claimed D1 like Shad did. I guess I believed both claim right away because I couldn't see how a mafia would take the risk to reveal this early. M noble stays a possibility but to me we should still choose between the dets.

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 9, 2023 ---

Would we really ? Result would be the same. No sick townie up there and still no reassurance that Baka ain't healthy mafia or something.

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 9, 2023 ---

Same for me you would still be saying I can be scum and HM so

Yes, we would really. If you had gotten sick then either your HT has been stolen or you never had it to begin with. Or at least the likelyhood for both increases.

Anyway, I agree with Gry and you about the dets and that learn the most if Holt dies. If he is scum, good. If he isn't then that really only leaves you or Baka, honestly, But since he has proven me, I feel kinda indebted to him. Especially if he turns out to be the real deal. But him being M.Det handing us over a TP and hoping to live long enough while we lynch each other is a really big scary possibility...

 

[Baka Taichou]

Let‘s play the „writing our suspects before Holt comes“ game.

1. List 2 that are most likely to be in a team with Erin and Samuel.

2. Also say why it isn‘t you.

@Tatsumaki @Baka Taichou @Brandish μ @Holt

Let us all play this game. Answer those questions up above.

james/ holt for me

wdym why it isn't me lmao cuz i'm not?

the only way for me to prove is only use noble on who I'm asked to by you guys and if sickly is used on me so not much else to say.

as for recruited traitor i can prove that one ez when i use noble again.

 

[James Rye]

Right, Baka claimed D1... wait, that really only leaves Holt, doesn't it?

 

[Baka Taichou]

Cuz she claims healthy townie.

oh wait I'm dumb thats the opposite. It's normal that it ain't here if she's HT

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 9, 2023, Original Post Date: Jun 9, 2023 ---

Nevermind then Holt vs James

-.-

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 9, 2023 ---

I'll play the game when im on laptop soon

daddy sickly'd Baka

Need to read yday as well, the sk thing was cray, leaning towards smooth Holt mafia who probs got dr'd from Erin?? Eh i should read it first

and here we go.

You're welcome

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 9, 2023 ---

i mean thanks for confirming me

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 9, 2023 ---

Wait you did? Where is the host info about that then?

there is not host info SINCE I'M HEALTHY TOWNIEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE IT DOESN'T AFFECT ME. shm

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 9, 2023 ---

smh

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 9, 2023 ---

@GrySun One thing I noticed though - after D1 Baka never used his Noble vote again. What if he didn't because he couldn't after being recruited in Night 2?

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 9, 2023, Original Post Date: Jun 9, 2023 ---

So you were testing that, I see... but what does that tell us exactly? Like SK had BP so why shouldn't Mafia have HT or HM in this case if both teams got a sickly each?

bruh, I'm a SHE first of all, and secondly I can prove that at any point, i'm just saving them cuz they're 2 left smh again james

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 9, 2023 ---

@GrySun One thing I noticed though - after D1 Baka never used his Noble vote again. What if he didn't because he couldn't after being recruited in Night 2?

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 9, 2023, Original Post Date: Jun 9, 2023 ---

So you were testing that, I see... but what does that tell us exactly? Like SK had BP so why shouldn't Mafia have HT or HM in this case if both teams got a sickly each?

then how bout you sus tatsu too, her doc didn't protect anyone even when asked specifically to protect someone she said she missed the post. and she also claims healthy townie.

hmm what if brandish is mafia with tatsu, that's why he went for me instead of the claimed doc?

w/e james is even more sus now with this logic

 

[James Rye]

Chill Baka. Thing is a single Bg and Hider seems hardly fair with SK and Mafia killing twice each night so the doc claim has to be real. Brand can't be Mafia because claiming double necro is insane as Mafia, way too risky something goes wrong. Plus we had last game a double Necro so it kinda makes sense we have one here as well. You got proven with the sickly move by Brand. Gry is IC. Holt proved me to be townie.
Ironically that only leaves Holt who nobody can prove if he is town or not unless we check his role by lynching him.

Just like Gry said in his post.

 

[Baka Taichou]

This is purely analysis of role list and setup, and what I find believable:

1. Escort + M. Doctor
2. Sickly + Strongman

vs

3. SK + BP

vs

4. Mason + Spy
5. Sickly + Prostitute
6. Investigator + Mortician
7. Bodyguard + Restless Spirit
8. Jesus + Banshee
9. Hider + Innocent Child

5 claims, at least 1 is fake:

10. Healthy Townie + Noble
11. Healthy Townie + Doctor
12. Necro + Necro
13. Mason + Detective
14. Detective + Townie

Of the confirmed townies, we only had 1 conditional killing role, one blocker to prevent kills and one hider to prevent kills, and a Jesus to stall out the game a bit. R. Spirit is some limited voting power.

Mafia had a blocker, a doctor to keep each other safe, sickly with essentially 4 uses to lower town voting power.

What fits this setup?

2 Healthy Townies: A bit much, but goes hand in hand with other roles meant to mislead town and cause mislynches. Town was unlikely to ever use their Sickly, so I believe there'd be no need for Healthy Townie on mafia, nor do rules support that. SK having a town extra role fits because it's just yer lone SK.

Doctor: With 2 killing groups, only avoiding kills via Hider is actually silly to expect, Prostitute can cover 1 killing group somewhat but not 2.

Noble: A bit iffy for town, when the Healthy Townies are already enough to counter powerful mafia Sickly all game. But fits as an additional counter/double edged sword.

Double Necro: actually a hard claim to fake with some roles like sickly and prostitute being able to show you can do stuff. Good failsafe for town losing their linchpins early.

2nd Mason: There clearly has to be one, else Marm would've just laughed about being a solo starting Mason. Never before seen. But Mafia Mason exists too to fill the same niche.

Useless Detective: Would weirdly enough fit the circus the Masons were meant to fill.

Working Detective: Legitimately gives town an investigative role, whereas they don't have any like this.

Townie: Could be Sleeper, and could be valid due to precedent last game.

Whoever the mafias are they masterfully claimed fake roles.

Still, from setup alone, I would conclude from this that if 1 player is mafia, it would be one of the Detectives. Either for Mafia Mason or for the only Townie Omo. Leaving all other players as town.

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 9, 2023, Original Post Date: Jun 9, 2023 ---

SK is a special case hosts gave some love to. In no way can there be town roles randomly on mafias. If you trust Brandish then Sakura is also town. Or alternatively they are both scum.

brandish claming he used sickly on me, no sick comment in the voting post, and I'm still not green??????????????