Politics Protests in the wider Arab world

[Roflkopt3r]

I always kinda liked Gadaffi as a person - not as a ruler - like when he painted a graffiti on the U.N. speaker's desk

Well, politically, no question, it's better if he'll finally be gone... Probably EU and US are keeping out even much more this time...
Rumor has it (well based rumors) that the EU gave money to Gadaffi specifically for his imprisonment camps for capturing people who were trying to get to the EU. He's even torturing people there, and yet the EU pays him, for the "good news" that less Africans make it to our continent...
Absolutely perverted in every way.

 

[DLord.Van.Buuren]

This is truley unfair.

Why does Europe and US get to have democracy and we have totall idiots oppressing us ?

Can you believe that we have a whole family controlling our governement?

 

[Imperium]

Bahrain is so significant right now. Im pessimistic of whether those protests will succeed, but the Saudi's will try everything they possibly can to make sure the Khalifa royal family stay in power. There have been reports, some of the attacks on the protesters have come from Non-Bahraini police, the saudi hand is already showing. Its scary what it will do to their economy though, they never had much oil in the first place.

There have been other protests in Yemen and Algeria, with some starting in Jordan. Im really pessimistic about the first two. Like Akainu said, military neutrality is pivotal. But having seen what that has done to Egypt im positive the rulers will guard against that.

Well, politically, no question, it's better if he'll finally be gone... Probably EU and US are keeping out even much more this time...
Rumor has it (well based rumors) that the EU gave money to Gadaffi specifically for his imprisonment camps for capturing people who were trying to get to the EU. He's even torturing people there, and yet the EU pays him, for the "good news" that less Africans make it to our continent...
Absolutely perverted in every way.

Its not only because of immigration. Immigration benefits the EU, they just want to be able to control it. The main reason they back those Mediterranean leaders is because of Energy. Libya has vast natural resources, with many pipelines going into Europe and more being planned. Right now the EU are trying to diversify its energy away from its Russian dependence. By building alternate pipelines to the Central Asian -stans and to North African countries rich in resources like Libya.

Its evident in Italys burgeoning friendship, Britain's reluctance to bow to public pressure over the release of the lockerbie bomber (al-Megrahi) and its general more positive relationship with Gadaffi. Ever since he abandoned the nuclear weapons building, they have been helping him more and more. Its always a question of interests, its in the EU's interest to help him, so they do.

 

[Roflkopt3r]

Its not only because of immigration. Immigration benefits the EU, they just want to be able to control it. The main reason they back those Mediterranean leaders is because of Energy. Libya has vast natural resources, with many pipelines going into Europe and more being planned. Right now the EU are trying to diversify its energy away from its Russian dependence. By building alternate pipelines to the Central Asian -stans and to North African countries rich in resources like Libya.

In that case it was about money directly spent into such camps used to imprison people who try to cross the border illegaly, mostly under terrible and inhuman conditions. It's part of the extremely disgusting methods the EU uses to stop refugees before they reach the Schengen zone...
Another one are paid security forces roaming around in the mediterran sea taking water and gas from refugee boats so that they cannot continue their travel and often end up dead... Unarguably condemnable, isn't it? This is not the coast guard btw. These are private companies hired to intercept the refugees before they're in range of the coast guards which are bound to laws and thus have to safe refugees in distress. Rather they operate under now law at all.

Either way, the western nations and spefically the EU have highly condemnable connections to countries such as Lybia.

 

[Imperium]

Either way, the western nations and spefically the EU have highly condemnable connections to countries such as Lybia.

Find me a commendable country and I'll find you a poor one.

I dont disagree with you though. The tactics are utterly shameful and abhorrent.

 

[Akainu]

@Bahrain: news said earlier that police - the usual police that is used every day anyway - was build from hired foreigners. thus they concluded there is no connection to the people and they can violently end the protests - just that like in every other case until now it had the opposite effect for now: from people calling for the removal of the prime minister it escalated to people demanding the removal of the whole royal family from power. also since there is a shia majority governed by a sunni elite, there is a chance they will actually succeed - if none of the exterior powers (Saudi-Arabia, US and Iran) mingle with the politics which could actually trigger a conflict between those said forces like wikileaks suggested it isn't unwanted...

@Libya: it's kinda funny how europe illuminates the interior of Gaddafis digestives, for example the political row with switzerland where they just couldn't be bothered to support our small mountainious neighbour because, well Libya is so mighty. He really is a problem though - a leading figure in both Africa and the Arab world with connections to terrorists could do quite some harm, so better not say a thing :/ now the funny part is, our policy is the same towards each and every other dictator around the world whether they actually have something to say or not, but that would lead too far here ^^'

 

[Imperium]

if none of the exterior powers (Saudi-Arabia, US and Iran) mingle with the politics which could actually trigger a conflict between those said forces like wikileaks suggested it isn't unwanted...

They will if they are not already. They can't avoid not getting involved. The loss of the Khalifa family from a ruling position would mean the whole geo political landscape in the area would change. Bahrain is currently an effective satellite state of Saudi Arabia, who are the regional power. A democratic Bahrain in any form would mean the Shia majority would begin gravatating away from Saudi influence and more towards Iranian influence who lie not far away, across in the Persian gulf. Iran getting more influence in the gulf is a horror scenario for the Saudi's (and Americans). They already have de-facto control the straits of Hormuz, which is probably the most important body of water in the whole of the middle east if not the world. 40% of sea-bond oil shipments flow through it, and in so far Iran has been toeing the line. But if Iran get more influence in the gulf region then that will directly result in diminishing Saudi influence and as a consequence diminishing western influence in that region. And more leverage for Iran to exert itself.

The Saudis are also scared because the protests could trigger the minority Saudi Shia community. The Royal family have been suppressing them for decades, and its only recently they began to mellow out (they gave them local elections and allowed them to appoint local leaders) But what is important is where that population lives. They live almost exclusively on the eastern coastline where almost all of Saudi oil is. They are the local workers in the plants and refineries. The Saudi Royal family is trying on one hand to quell the Bahrain protests so the Iranians dont increase their influence, and to also try and make sure it doesn't spread to their own Shia minority so that it doesn't affect their oil exports or the volatile oil market.

Iran in their own case are surrounded by not only US troops on both sides, but also in their own pond. They will do anything it takes to exploit this so they can implement a more democratic government. Its ironic but democracy is Iran's best weapon in Bahrain and they will use it (while suppressing it themselves). But if it works it will mean they can exert more pressure on neighbouring countries and a ally in the gulf.

Democratic Bahrain means a country influenced by its masses. That mass is not only shia, but also one that is subjugated by its royal family. It would be more open to Iran then ever before. In any case, the Saudis and America will try their hardest to make sure it doesnt happen. Which is why im pretty pessimistic about it all succeeding. Whats also sad about Bahrain is that they were the liberal lights of the region. Their social reforms were great especially the ones on changing the foreign labour market. The gulf foreign labour market is as close to modern slavery as you will ever find.

 

[Akainu]

I heard about the labour market producing very weird situations, like the UAE that only have about 900.000 citizens and about 4 million workers - unrest is very unlikely to come up there I think, neither from the "aboriginees" there nor from the workers. While the former are too few, the latter need the money and will keep quiet. Additionally the workers aren't from one ethnicity/region/culture either, so...

Anyway, it's quite paradox that it could be the iranian influence bringing democracy to the peninsula, isn't it? While there are new protests in Iran itself, those probably won't be successfull either (hope they will, never seen such a sad thing as a nation and it's people getting hijacked by blockheads). However I read an article lately that Oman too was rather close to Iran - or so the UAE feared and sent their spies because of that.

 

[Imperium]

I heard about the labour market producing very weird situations, like the UAE that only have about 900.000 citizens and about 4 million workers - unrest is very unlikely to come up there I think, neither from the "aboriginees" there nor from the workers. While the former are too few, the latter need the money and will keep quiet. Additionally the workers aren't from one ethnicity/region/culture either, so...

Anyway, it's quite paradox that it could be the iranian influence bringing democracy to the peninsula, isn't it? While there are new protests in Iran itself, those probably won't be successfull either (hope they will, never seen such a sad thing as a nation and it's people getting hijacked by blockheads). However I read an article lately that Oman too was rather close to Iran - or so the UAE feared and sent their spies because of that.

The labour market is a dressed up and pretty form of modern slavery. Throughout the whole area it works simliarily.

Spoiler

Places with large labour like South asia are targeted. Recruiters will go to rural villages in those areas, promise locals astronmical wages (for them) to come to the gulf. Tickets are paid. These people come. To work they need to be sponsored by a local. This local is entitled to a share of their wages. The share is by agreement (naturally in favour of the local). He also holds their passport, so the worker cannot leave the country without his express permission. The workers work permit is also under his control, so if you make cause trouble for the local your out of the country. So they take some of your wages, they control your movement and have the ability to kick you out. All this power isnt in a goverment or organisation but on a whim of a local. Abuse is widespread.

The large buildings you see in Dubai, Doha, Abu Dhabi have been built through this. The locals dont get their hands dirty in anything. Its why the whole Gulf has such a disproportionate population. Its why its indigenous population is either unemployed or in the public sector. Very few actually work in the private sector. A lot of the unemployed themselves are technically not even unemployed as a most of them have their own sponsors and the Government pays them a lot in benefits.

One last thing there is no limit to the sponsors one can have. I remember when I was in Oman (beautiful country) renewing my visa, it was in the same building where they renew the work permits. I swear to god, this young man, early 20's max, came in with his arms full of passports, went to the desk and said "renew all of them". He had in tow behind him about 20-30 south Asians. The guy i was with who was a local, knew him and said they were all his sponsors.

Not all foreign workers are like this. But the vast poorer less skilled majority are. More skilled workers (Read really skilled: Doctors, Engineers), and westerners are sponsored by their companies.

A couple of the countries have been trying to curb this practise (the need for it is diminishing) and it was lead by Bahrain who banned it a couple of years ago.

Its a paradox isnt it. xD But to be honest, Iran itself with its presidential elections is more democratic then these countries who are ruled simply by royal families. Oman have some problems of their own. They own some land on the strait of Hormuz which is probably where the Iran links come from. As those two countries are the only ones who have land on that important strait of water.

 

[Roflkopt3r]

@Libya: it's kinda funny how europe illuminates the interior of Gaddafis digestives, for example the political row with switzerland where they just couldn't be bothered to support our small mountainious neighbour because, well Libya is so mighty. He really is a problem though - a leading figure in both Africa and the Arab world with connections to terrorists could do quite some harm, so better not say a thing :/ now the funny part is, our policy is the same towards each and every other dictator around the world whether they actually have something to say or not, but that would lead too far here ^^'

Actually the Switzerland affair was so hillarious (apart from Gadaffi taking a hostage)
Iirc... he said that Switzerland should be invaded because it's the financee for all mafia. Then he added that mysteriously people would be killed by the swiss government after placing lots of money on swiss bank accounts, and that this would actually be how Switzerland finances themselves - attracting rich people, then killing them and taking their money.
Finally he said the country should be split in three and added to Germany, France and Italy

Gadaffi is the perhaps biggest TROLL politics ever saw

 

[DLord.Van.Buuren]

Rumors are gaddafi is planning to fly out of the country.

 

[Akainu]

didn't hear about that yet, but it's a disgrace how he can treat his own people, massacre them with heavy weapons and all the european leaders are doing is to tell them to be "peaceful" ~.~

Bahrain on the other hand seems to have found a way out of the violence - surely not without pressure? <_<

edit: I'm thoroughly disgusted. using bombs against demonstrations, don't even know what to say;

 

[Kaiten]

Gaddafi still has a nasty reputation in the states because of his connection to Lockerbie. I'm hardly surprised warplanes are bombing Tropoli. There are reports that mercenaries are being brought in from sub-Saharan Africa too. It seems that he no longer controls the eastern half of the country. The diplomat to the Arab League and deputy diplomat to the UN have already defected. There are reports of fighter pilots landing in Malta to defect, rather than bomb their fellow citizens. With Gaddafi's current location unknown, I doubt he will remain in power much longer.

 

[Imperium]

Gadaffi is almost Ceausescu like. His brutality and flamboyance. What a disgusting mix. I hope he has ran to Venezuela as they are saying. His son was ranting on state TV yesterday, his message was "we will fight till the last bullet".

---

As with the UN and AL diplomats, the libyan ambassadors to China, India, Indonesia and Poland have resigned. Another one of his ministers (secretary of protocol) has resigned on air. The Austrian Army says that the Libyan airspace is closed which is stopping people from evacuating.

Gadaffi apparently will speak on State TV soon while his son is denying that they have used planes to bomb cities.

 

[Akainu]

Gadaffi in TV was awesome bs, seriously. "See, it's raining here, I'm totally in Tripolis since it's the only town in the world where it's raining". That would make for awesome comedy if it wasn't for the dire situation he put his people in.
On the other hand, it doesn't seem like he's still holding control, at least not in all of Libya, especially the east, which is rumored to be the reason for calling in mercenaries. If that's true it's an amazingly fast erosion of power despite being one of the most repressive regimes. This in turn makes me wonder if it then will spread on to Syria with similar bloodshed :/
Oh, also since Gadaffi always acted and saw himself as africas leader do you guys think it could continue down south? .-.

 

[DLord.Van.Buuren]

lol, Gaddafi says we haven't used the force yet.

He says that the people responsible for the protests are not from libya and he suspects that qaida is involved in this.

 

[Kaiten]

I love how these dictators think that bringing up quaida will make the US support them, as if Bush were still in office

Gadaffi in TV was awesome bs, seriously. "See, it's raining here, I'm totally in Tripolis since it's the only town in the world where it's raining". That would make for awesome comedy if it wasn't for the dire situation he put his people in.
On the other hand, it doesn't seem like he's still holding control, at least not in all of Libya, especially the east, which is rumored to be the reason for calling in mercenaries. If that's true it's an amazingly fast erosion of power despite being one of the most repressive regimes. This in turn makes me wonder if it then will spread on to Syria with similar bloodshed :/
Oh, also since Gadaffi always acted and saw himself as africas leader do you guys think it could continue down south? .-.

Gadaffi looked completely ridiculous. The car, the umbrella, the hat. "I am not in Venezuela". He might be in Libya but he sure as hell is not in Tripoli. The level of bizarre was off the charts, it's terrifying that this guy has been running a country for the last forty years. I haven't watched his latest video yet but it looks horrifying.

According to Reuters eastern Libya is under the control of people's committees. The regular army stood down and the mercenaries have been round up. From what I have read Gaddafi was never very popular in the east anyway. It seems that he deliberately kept the army week during his rule, fearing a military coup. All officers have ranks below his, Colonel. The real army are paramilitary mercenaries from the Sahel and upper Nile states. Apparently Gadaffi maintains power through patronage to the various major tribes, most of whom have abandoned him. It's a matter of time before his rule collapses but there will be a lot more bloodshed.

I'm shocked there hasn't been any protests in Syria. The regime is one of the most repressive, from what I understand. I know the army is very powerful, I know they were very loyal to Asad's father. I don't know if they are as loyal to him. The whole military is stocked with his clansmen, all of whom are very insular, part of a very secretive religious sect. If protests start in Syria I am willing to believe they will be the bloodiest.

China is already prepared for protests. Maybe revolts will spread south. Conditions are so different in sub-Saharan Africa I wonder if the people are prepared to overthrow the government. It's so much poorer and so many of the countries have just emerged from brutal civil wars.

 

[Roflkopt3r]

Gadaffi always was funny as hell in his speeches, as I said he's a big times troll
It would be great if he could finally be forced out though...

 

[Akainu]

'foreign policy' has a top five of authoritarian leaders to go next containing Castro, Lukashenko, Kim Yong Il, Mugabe and Gadaffi iirc. naturally it would be good to see any of them go and protests spreading to china shows that it's not as much a cultural thing anymore - in other words, mass media might really have a role there.
contrary to that, in the cultural seemingly similar central asia, i.e. the *-stan states, there's no sign of protests. all of them have the post communist transition behind them and there were uprisings before, even quite lately ... hmmm

 

[Imperium]

Official estimates are saying over 300 dead in Libya, unofficial it is probably more. That's as much as the Egyptian protests which has more than 13 times the population and had a longer timespan of protests.

Gadaffi's time has effectively ended. It will now only be a matter of how long and how brutal his fall will be. And I hope to god the tribes don't turn on each other. As brutal and dictatorial he was, he held them together. Similar to the Ba'ath in Iraq. If the revolution convulses into tribal lines then I fear the whole place will become anarchy.

With Syria there were protests initially but it just petered out. Its weird but i think with Syria a lot of people will be scared that the whole society will disintegrate if there is mass unrest. They are neighboured by two states that perpetuate in and out of total chaos (Iraq, Lebanon) and one that is hostile and occupies their territory (Israel). It could be a simple case of the general populace not wanting to make things worse? And a quick glance at Iraq can show it can be much much worse.