Mag Talk Weekly Shonen Jump [2018] - Discussion and TOC Talk

[TyVip]

The cutoff for top 10 this year will probably be less than 2.7 million of last year, i'm guessing >2.5 millions

Top 3 will be One Piece, My hero and Slam Dunk no contest. Based on the first half sell and various reprints throughout the year (first half sale at 2.5 million, BNHA reported 15 mil in circulation, then 16 million for 19 volumes, 12 days later 17 million in print so give or take 18 million in print right now for volume 20), it will most likely have similar number to last year sale (~4.5 million)

Slam Dunk has the fattest backlog since Kingdom couple years ago, if every volumes cross 200k then easy 6 million copies sold.

From Shonen Jump i'm guessing One Piece, Hero Aca, Haikyuu and Slam Dunk will be on it in no particular order. TPN is an interesting case since individual volume it sells less than Kingdoom, TG:Re, One Punch Man, but it did beat out TG and OPM for the first half so there is a chance. I don't want to bet on Black Clover since i don't know how strong its backlogs is. it either TPN or BC will take the 10th spot.

I'm more interesting in top 20 but too bad Oricon stops releasing them

 

[SharkBait]

it will most likely have similar number to last year sale (~5.8 million)

that seems disappointing, all it had going for it this year, and the best it can do is do what it did in the previous year without growing? Hopefully your prediction is proved incorrect .

 

[Tamil]

Slam Dunk has the fattest backlog since Kingdom couple years ago, if every volumes cross 200k then easy 6 million copies sold.

You mean its a easy 4 million copies sold. If every volume did 300k then its a easy 6M. Whenever a new batch of new volumes were released, the older ones appeared in the ranking so there's some good backlog going on. I wonder how they did in individual sales.

I'm more interesting in top 20 but too bad Oricon stops releasing them

Same here but don't get we get like the top 20/30 a few months later?

 

[SharkBait]

Same here but don't get we get like the top 20/30 a few months later?

Heiji will deliver as usual ^_^.

 

[MangAniMY]

MAde a form for the top 10 if anyone interested

https://goo.gl/forms/cveujkjas4SboQEL2

 

[Tamil]

LINE stickers for Toriko

I miss Toriko

 

[Obitooooo]

The cutoff for top 10 this year will probably be less than 2.7 million of last year, i'm guessing >2.5 millions

Top 3 will be One Piece, My hero and Slam Dunk no contest. Based on the first half sell and various reprints throughout the year (first half sale at 2.5 million, BNHA reported 15 mil in circulation, then 16 million for 19 volumes, so give or take 17 million in print right now for volume 20), it will most likely have similar number to last year sale (~4.5 million)

Slam Dunk has the fattest backlog since Kingdom couple years ago, if every volumes cross 200k then easy 6 million copies sold.

From Shonen Jump i'm guessing One Piece, Hero Aca, Haikyuu and Slam Dunk will be on it in no particular order. TPN is an interesting case since individual volume it sells less than Kingdoom, TG:Re, One Punch Man, but it did beat out TG and OPM for the first half so there is a chance. I don't want to bet on Black Clover since i don't know how strong its backlogs is. it either TPN or BC will take the 10th spot.

I'm more interesting in top 20 but too bad Oricon stops releasing them

This year is 3 M +

Sure :
OP
MHA
SNK
SEVEN
SL
HQ
KINGDOM
TPN

Two places: 4 cadidates ( TG, BC, Golden Kamuy and Tensei Shitara Slime Datta Ken, Maybe Detective conan )

 

[TyVip]

that seems disappointing, all it had going for it this year, and the best it can do is do what it did in the previous year without growing? Hopefully your prediction is proved incorrect .

It is still growing though?
i'm basing this purely on print number, so obv the sales will be lower than the print number.

Pre Season 2 (March 2017): 10 million in print
Pre Season 3 (Feb 2018): 13 million in print
During Season 3 (May 2018): 15 millions in print, - half sale at 2.5 million. Last year it got 2 million during its half sale.
Aug 9th: 16 million in print
Aug 21: 17 million in print
Volume 20th on Sep 4 plus numerous reprints from Aug till now, let's add another estimate of 1 million (18),
ALL ESTIMATE 2.5 + 3 ~ estimate 5.5 million copies sold, unless it gets a official 19 million in print in the next 5 weeks then 6~6.5 million copies sold this year.

This year is 3 M +

I think you're right now that i double check.

You mean its a easy 4 million copies sold. If every volume did 300k then its a easy 6M. Whenever a new batch of new volumes were released, the older ones appeared in the ranking so there's some good backlog going on. I wonder how they did in individual sales.

How about we take the derivative so all of this series go to 0?

Time to hibernate for 5 more weeks.

 

[Tarot]

I think this year is MHA's best chance to grab the second spot because next year Kingdom is likely to have a boost due to the live action movie. It has over 50 volumes and if the backlog gets enough boost to sell 50k per volume, which is extremely possible because it's been a long time since the last adaptation, then that would be 2.5M copies just from that.

 

[Mankichi Togawa]

I don't see MHA beating Shingeki in sales though

 

[TxxT]

My picks for the top 10:

OP
MHA
SnK
HQ
Slam Dunk
Kingdom
7DS
TPN
BC
OPM/Soma/Conan

 

[MangAniMY]

I don't see MHA beating Shingeki in sales though

,,,

 

[DyanSon]

MHA only have 4 volume this year right? If volume 21 doesn't get push back on December getting 3rd place or even top 2 is possible. But right know i doubt it.

 

[Obitooooo]

The second place for MHA is Sure :

6.175.622 Total Minimum Sales ( I'm missing two weeks ), It´s possible 6.8 M or even 7 million for the oricon.

 

[Franz]

MHA only have 4 volume this year right? .

Yes.

 

[MangAniMY]

The second place for MHA is Sure :

6.175.622 Total Minimum Sales ( I'm missing two weeks ), It´s possible 6.8 M or even 7 million for the oricon.

well... since someone else shared their data...

6,271,123 (up until October 14th, missing 21- 27 may ) [ ~100k missing]

 

[TxxT]

well... since someone else shared their data...

6,271,123 (up until October 14th, missing 21- 27 may ) [ ~100k missing]

do you have any #s for other series, like SD, HQ and AOT?

 

[Heiji]

Old news,

unless it's another thing entirely, it is the same as what Shimabukuro did in #46

Same^^

 

[Tamil]

 

[mangalover101]

The second place for MHA is Sure :

6.175.622 Total Minimum Sales ( I'm missing two weeks ), It´s possible 6.8 M or even 7 million for the oricon.

I don't think #2 is assured.. it's still a toss up for me between SnK and MHA at this point. If they released Vol. 21 in November like last year, it would have been a sure #2 for me...

--- Double Post Merged, Oct 19, 2018, Original Post Date: Oct 19, 2018 ---

well... since someone else shared their data...

6,271,123 (up until October 14th, missing 21- 27 may ) [ ~100k missing]

With 5 weeks I think remaining in the tracking week and it's still selling 100k/week in backlog sales, it should end around 6.5-6.7 million this year...