Well, that was before the utter madness that was the final conclusion of the Big 3 Era in 2016, when the floor dropped out from under Jump with Nisekoi, AssClass, Kochikame, Bleach and Toriko all ending in quick succession. It's likely that, had it been in another context, some of these series might've been able to survive.
Not really, by then WSJ had MHA, BC doing well with KNB, Yuuna and TPN all being part of their line up by Aug 2016. By Early 2017, they got Act Age and Dr. Stone as well. Sales wise, sure, they probably lost a lot with Bleach and AC but they had already transitioned into the "next era" way before those ended.
Not really, by then WSJ had MHA, BC doing well with KNB, Yuuna and TPN all being part of their line up by Aug 2016. By Early 2017, they got Act Age and Dr. Stone as well. Sales wise, sure, they probably lost a lot with Bleach and AC but they had already transitioned into the "next era" way before those ended.
Oh my mistake, WNL is what I meant.
Also, to add to my point, HQ was still in its peak, Soma was still fairly well liked and respected with good sales(ish) and obviously Gintama was still doing fine. So it wasn't like there was a gap in WSJ or something. If anything, they found MHA, BC and TPN all at the right time.
Most bizarre case was Cross Account, 27k copies, it even sold better than Act-Age first volume that didn't appeared in the top 50 and had the 2nd volume in the top 50 too but still got cancelled with 32 chapters, Tsunehiro Date was unlucky AF at the time.
If anything, WSJ is probably in a worse situation now than back then, in terms of trying to find hits. There’s quite a few flops and uncertainties, and some of the established series will see themselves complete their runs within the next year.
Most bizarre case was Cross Account, 27k copies, it even sold better than Act-Age first volume that didn't appeared in the top 50 and had the 2nd volume in the top 50 too but still got cancelled with 32 chapters, Tsunehiro Date was unlucky AF at the time.
Really? I wonder if the sales just fell with each subsequent volume because 27k Vol 1 is near Chainsawman level, I believe. Or maybe Jump wasn’t in as dire a situation?
Also, the best selling Kingdom volume in a week is volume 55 which sold 573,264 copies in 7 days (including pre-orders). Kimetsu sold that in two weeks. That's not two and a half months.
Finally, while the Shoseki rankings don't allow us to have exact data, they still give a range, and that range is not based on guesstimations, as you say.
Shoseki is wrong lots of times. Its data is based solely on rankings on select sites and stores nothing remotely concrete at all hence why a lot of estimates tirn out being off the mark. They're a close proximity not a defacto information source.
Most bizarre case was Cross Account, 27k copies, it even sold better than Act-Age first volume that didn't appeared in the top 50 and had the 2nd volume in the top 50 too but still got cancelled with 32 chapters, Tsunehiro Date was unlucky AF at the time.
I think its because of bad timing, Jump already had two romance titles around that time. Granted Yuuna and WNL are very different, they appeal to different publics and one appeal to the romcom public and the other to the ecchi public. There was no room to survive in there. 3 romance manga thriving in Jump at the same time is unheard of (and I think two was as well before WNL)
Some of these numbers are actually impressive considering how "unpopular" these mangas looked at the time, specially cases like Lady Justice, UBS, Amalgam and Takuan. Sometimes Jump's way of putting too much weight on readers surveys/opinion really kill some stuff that would totally survive on many other magazines or even on Plus and maybe grow with time.
that list doesn't give the time context for first volume sales
it says kny first volme sold almost 30k, but iirc its first volume didn't even make oricon top 50 when the cutoff for that week was 15k
@ChocoBar9 Hello
So, I might have created an account just to say this but, here is what we can say about Japan manga sales for the 2019 oricon year, and especially about the competition between Kingdom, Neverland and Kimetsu no Yaiba:
NB: I was too lazy to add the links to the Shoseki rankings, I decided it wasn't important since they are easily available
NB2: To prove my point, I always used the highest possible estimation for Kingdom and Neverland. Because I almost never had to make estimations for Kimetsu no Yaiba, that means that the gap between it and the other two is as big as it could be.
Volume 54: 13100
Volume 1 to 10, 16 to 35 and 53 [Between #100 (7400 copies) and #200 (5000 copies)]: 31 volumes x #100 estimation=31*7400=229000
Volume 11 to 15 and 36 to 52 [Between #200 (5000 copies) and #300 (3500 copies)]: 22 volumes x #200 estimation=22*5000=110000
Total: 325,100
Neverland
Volume 1, 5 to 9 and 11 to 13 [Between #100 (7400 copies) and #200 (5000 copies)]: 9 volumes x #100 estimation=9*7400=66600
Volume 2 to 4 and 10 [Between #200 (5000 copies) and #300 (3500 copies)]: 4 volumes x #200 estimation=4*5000=20000
Volume 54: 10760
Volume 1 to 10, 24 to 35, 52 and 53 [Between #100 (6800 copies) and #200 (4500 copies)]: 24 volume x #100 estimation=24*6800=163200
Volume 11 to 23 and 36 to 51 [Between #200 (5000 copies) and #300 (3500 copies)]: 29 volumes x #200 estimation=29*4500=130500
Total: 304,460
Neverland
Volume 13: #96, but not in the top 100 for Oricon, so let’s assume it did exactly the same as the last jump title of the top 100, Act-Age volume 6: 6892
Volume 1 to 12 [Between #100 (6800 copies) and #200 (4500 copies)]: 12 volumes x #100 estimation=12*6800=81600
Volume 54: #53=#50 estimation=10500
Volume 1, 9, 10, 52 and 53 [Between #100 (6750 copies) and #200 (4000 copies)]: 5 volumes x #100 estimation=5*6750=33750
Volume 2 to 8 and 11 to 51 [Between #200 (4000 copies) and #300 (3200 copies)]: 48 volume x #200 estimation=48*4000=192000
Total: 236,250
Neverland
Volume 14: 375151
Volume 13: 8232
Volume 6 and 12: #94 and #99, but not in the top 100 for Oricon, so let’s assume they did exactly the same as the last jump title of the top 100, 忘却バッテリー (Afaik, it doesn’t have an official English name) Volume 4 : 2*7693=15386
Volume 1 to 5 and 7 to 11[Between #100 (6750 copies) and #200 (4000 copies)]: 10 volumes x #100 estimation=10*6750=67500
Volume 15: 9754
Volume 4: 9378
Volume 5: 9126
Volume 1: 9014
Volume 3: 8981
Volume 6: 8905
Volume 7: 8731
Volume 14: 8610
Volume 11: 8598
Volume 2, 8 to 10, 12 and 13: They are above #100 (9100 copies) in Shoseki, but under it in Oricon. So I can’t do anything else than assume they sold as much as the last Jump title of the Oricon Top 100, Kimetsu 11. 6*8598=51588
Total: 132,685
Kingdom
Volume 54: #131=#100 estimation=9100
Volume 52 and 53 [Between #200 (4550 copies) and #300 (3100 copies)]: 2 volumes x #200 estimation=2*4550=9100
Volume 1 to 10, 20 to 29, 30 to 37, 39 and 41 to 51 [Between #300 (3100 copies) and #300 (2550 copies)]: 40 volumes x #300 estimation=40*3100=124000
Volume 11, 13 to 19, 38 and 40 [Between #400 (2550 copies) and #500 (2000 copies)]: 10 volumes x #400 estimation=10*2550=25500
Volume 12: outside of the top 500, but let’s go with the #500 estimation=2000
Total: 169,700
Neverland
Volume 14: 54580
Volume 1 to 13 [Between #100 (9100 copies) and #200 (4550 copies)]: 13 volumes x #100 estimation=13*9100=118300
Volume 4: 11970
Volume 5: 11857
Volume 6: 11511
Volume 15: 11449
Volume 1 to 3 and 7 to 14: Once again, Shoseki has them all in the top 100, but not Oricon. The lowest range this time would be to use the #100 Shoseki estimation : 11 volumes x 11400=125939
Total: 172,187
Kingdom
Volume 54: #183=#100 estimation=11400
Volume 53: #292=#200 estimation=5900
Volume 26 and 52 [Between #300 (3800 copies) and #400 (2800 copies)]: 2 volumes x #300 estimation=2*3800=7600
Volume 1, 3 to 10, 21 to 25, 27 to 51 [Between #400 (2800 copies) and #500 (2350 copies)]: 39 volumes x #400 estimation=39*2800=109200
Volume 2, 11 to 20: Below the top 500, but let’s use the #500 estimation for them: 11 volumes x #500 estimation=11*2350=25850
Total: 159,950
Neverland
Volume 14: 31335
Volume 13: #186=#100 estimation=11400
Volume 1 to 12 [Between #200 (5900 copies) and #300 (3800 copies)]: 12 volumes x #200 estimation=12*5900=70800
Total: 113,535
July 1 to August 4 Oricon Sales Data:
Kimetsu no Yaiba: 1393,353
Kingdom: 629,612
Neverland: 516,710
August 5 to August 11:
Kimetsu no Yaiba: 236,655
Kingdom: 101,134
Neverland: 270,662
August 12 to August 18:
Kimetsu no Yaiba: 351,921
Kingdom: 156,140
Neverland: 173,081
August 19 to August 25:
Kimetsu no Yaiba: 303,929
Kingdom: 673,719
Neverland: 101,207
August 26 to September 1:
Kimetsu no Yaiba: 335,990
Kingdom: 207,464
Neverland: 83,119
I’m stopping there, because starting with the following week, Neverland falls out of the top Noeru gives and I’m too lazy to do any more Shoseki estimations. But here are the numbers for Kimetsu and Kingdom:
Kimetsu no Yaiba: 430,905
Kingdom: 104,029
Neverland<62,831
Kimetsu no Yaiba Estimation as of September 1st: 5,060,775
Kingdom Estimation as of September 1st: 6,998,608
Neverland Estimation as of September 1st: 6,467,958
There are 11 weeks left between September 1st and the end of the Oricon year. That means Kimetsu needs to sell on average 176,139 volumes more per week than Kingdom to reach it (6,998,608-5,060,775=1,937,533 // 1,937,533/11=176,139). And so far, it's been selling much more than that.
TL;DR Kimetsu ending the year as #2 isn't a crazy prediction
I'm too lazy to type long stuff, since I just did a long post on the possibly of Kny beating OP this year TLDR: non-zero chance but highly unlikely at the moment
instead ill just share this,
minor explanations
grey backgrounds is from monthly total since some individual weeks are unknown
orange background are unknown week with lowest known value in the top 10 series meaning the actual must be less than that
bolded are sum of calculatable value, so the recent TPN is not added, but probably 180k max
green background is if up to the same date (last week aka, up until 15 sep, AND with the maximum possible value added for TPN (should be lower, by how much? you tell me) AND KNY is up to last week as well since the weekly for the current week is not out so we cannot know how much is the lowest possible value in the top 10 for the week
anyway didn't add kingdom since couldn't be bothered to,
can't add it right now since not near my pc
but, kingdom is another case where week to week tracking is easy,
so going by the previous post, the total up to 15 sep for kingdom is 7,046,511 and it is probably going to add another ~100k give or take this week (maybe more maybe less depending on stock and/or demand)
making it at around 7.15M ahead of KnY 6.33M (up until last week / 22 sep) or about 820k ahead,
kny have another volume next month(October) and assuming 17 will at least match 16 and the backlogs doesn't drop like a rock the gap will be much closer or gone by the time kny 17 is released
according to amazon, kingdom 56 is listed for November 19th 2019, so depending on where oricon set the deadline it can only have 1 week inbthe ranking with a 6 days FW and since it is one less day FW compared to 55, it would be safe to assume anywhere between 500 - 550k FW
kny is showing a much better weekly average than kingdom at the moment, but kingdom have been pretty strong so far.
I won't go further than this since making projection is not really my style but both series have a chance depending how long both can maintain their backlogs
in the end it will depends on how much kny can sell after the anime ends and how much longer the Kingdom week to week performance can maintain,
ps: I should have waited for this weeks numbers aince it is usually out not far from when I post this, but I won't be at my pc anytime soon anyway so eh.
side note: while I don't post projections but mathematically speaking, kny have a better chance of beating OP than kingdom for this year, but even that have lot of caveats surrounding the details and ultimately i put is as not impossible but unlikely.
barring horrible sales for vol 94, OP is almost certainly going to do 10M(or just slightly missing) for oricon 2019,
unless Neverland have another volume in November, I don't see a feasible way for it and Kingdom to come close to that number at the moment,
(in kingdom case it might be possible if the backlogs suddenly jump back to the level when the movie was showing, but that isnsafe to say unlikely)
as for kny, I did made a very long post about it elsewhere, but to make it short, KnY NEED a number of things to align in its favour (maintain backlogs, slow decline, good 17 sales, when the closing dates, op underperformed) to even cross that threshold and while my conclusion is not impossible, I put it as unlikely for now
I think its because of bad timing, Jump already had two romance titles around that time. Granted Yuuna and WNL are very different, they appeal to different publics and one appeal to the romcom public and the other to the ecchi public. There was no room to survive in there. 3 romance manga thriving in Jump at the same time is unheard of (and I think two was as well before WNL)
I def think it was WNL that got Cross Account axed. They started within a few months of each other, and, of the two, WNL had the better critical reception and sales. It just made business sense to keep one and ditch the other with the promise of diversifying the magazine.
That said, with WNL looking to end quite soon, I wouldn't be surprised if they got Date back for another go around.
that list doesn't give the time context for first volume sales
it says kny first volme sold almost 30k, but iirc its first volume didn't even make oricon top 50 when the cutoff for that week was 15k
barring horrible sales for vol 94, OP is almost certainly going to do 10M(or just slightly missing) for oricon 2019,
unless Neverland have another volume in November, I don't see a feasible way for it and Kingdom to come close to that number at the moment,
(in kingdom case it might be possible if the backlogs suddenly jump back to the level when the movie was showing, but that isnsafe to say unlikely)
as for kny, I did made a very long post about it elsewhere, but to make it short, KnY NEED a number of things to align in its favour (maintain backlogs, slow decline, good 17 sales, when the closing dates, op underperformed) to even cross that threshold and while my conclusion is not impossible, I put it as unlikely for now
Let me just say that despite all the doomsaying the Digital is killing Physical this year's manga sales are looking exponentially better than last year with the top 5 mostly filled with series that got boosted by their recent adaptations all above 5 million per series I think we can predict the top five now.
1# One Piece
2# Kingdom
3# Kimetsu
4# Neverland
5# Quintuplets
OP is just the safest bet at this point but the top 3 is mainly going to shift depending how Kingdom and Kimetsu do for the last few months. Neverland deadlocked for 4th with QQ rounding out the top 5.
MHA 25 delayed removed its chances of making the top 5 and AoT will round out the top 7 as it descends every year. Haikyuu is a definite 8th for the year with Slime 9th and OPM knocking out Kaguya to close out the top 10.
up to 1 month, shoseki only since boruto had a different number for 4 weeks and 5 weeks on oricon
some are only using estimates from weekly rankings hence not a complete month
and some are using estimates based on the the daily rankings in reference to the daily estimates of the weekly estimates from the weekly rankings
i would assume old methods so no additional formulated decay that book-rank recently used before their death again
people might say why i use such long term, well since shoseki does not do estimates for each rank, they give ranks and range, and even the owner doesn't really want people to use it to count estimates.
I def think it was WNL that got Cross Account axed. They started within a few months of each other, and, of the two, WNL had the better critical reception and sales. It just made business sense to keep one and ditch the other with the promise of diversifying the magazine.
That said, with WNL looking to end quite soon, I wouldn't be surprised if they got Date back for another go around.
Really? I wonder if the sales just fell with each subsequent volume because 27k Vol 1 is near Chainsawman level, I believe. Or maybe Jump wasn’t in as dire a situation?
V1 sold 13k in 5 days while v2 sold 16k in 7 days, some pretty good numbers for a series that was constantly at the bottom but v3 and v4 were released together after the manga got cancelled, so of course they didn't appeared in the top 50.
I think its because of bad timing, Jump already had two romance titles around that time. Granted Yuuna and WNL are very different, they appeal to different publics and one appeal to the romcom public and the other to the ecchi public. There was no room to survive in there. 3 romance manga thriving in Jump at the same time is unheard of (and I think two was as well before WNL)
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