I notice a lot of sentiment that a series has one foot in the grave the instant it enters the bottom 5. Not only am I not convinced that viewpoint is super productive, but I've also started wondering if that's just something that naturally happens to a series before its first volume comes out. Yes, a series might slide into the bottom 5 and stay there if its volumes sell badly, but there are several series that were in the bottom for months, and then hopped back into the middle as it started moving volumes. Yui Kamuo being a very timely example.
Not convinced? Lets take a peek at Chainsaw Man's TOC timeline, bolding the times it hit bottom:
- Debuts in December 2018
- Gradually slides down the TOC before making its first Bottom 5 appearance with Chapter 9 (Feb 9, 2019)
- Stays in the Bottom 5 from Feb 9 - March 11
- Volume 1 releases March 4th
- Chainsaw Man jumps to 13th place on March 18th. Hovers in the bottom-middle slot for several weeks
- Hops into 9th place on April 27th, starts consistently getting middle placements
- Volume 2 releases May 2nd
- Chainsaw Man dips back into the bottom for a single week on June 3rd (Tokyo Shinobi Squad's debut)
- ROCKETS into 3rd place on June 17th
- Goes back into getting middle placements, and has been there ever since
Chainsaw Man is now considered a success, but was starting to falter during a period where it had been running for a few months, and had no indicator that people were enjoying it because there was nothing to buy yet.
All of the Reiwa debuts are at this exact point in the timeline. At least a couple of them are probably doomed to
stay at the bottom (Taisei and Beast Children descended faster than Chansaw Man and have been alternating the spot at the
very bottom for a little while now), but I think a couple of them are going to move back up after sales figures of their first volumes come in.
Samurai 8's first two volumes moving copies seems like a particularly safe bet based on the author alone. Will the
third volume sell well, after people curious about Kishimoto's new project have read the first two? That's a good question. Either way, I don't think it dipping into the bottom this week means its going to stay there past October, let alone get axed any time soon.
Anyway, I'm far from being an expert on all this, and I hardly think my projections are fact. But I thought I'd share some recent observations regardless!