Mag Talk Weekly Shonen Jump [2019] - Discussion and TOC Talk

[Franz]

They are. Very strong in fact.

So strong to overcome One Piece?

It'll be interesting to see which Manga will sell more next year, KnY after its incredible boost or MHA.

We need to see how long this boost will last ......

--- Double Post Merged, Oct 8, 2019, Original Post Date: Oct 8, 2019 ---

I don't see it as unlikely at all. Both Manga will be probably selling around 600-700k per volume.

Are you really comparing One Piece to Kimetsu?

 

[ChocoBar9]

I don't see it as unlikely at all. Both Manga will be probably selling around 600-700k per volume.

This is just the boost period. We don't actually know how much it'll actually be selling once it stabilizes,

 

[Ryuusei]

It'll be interesting to see which Manga will sell more next year, KnY after its incredible boost or MHA.

You mean per volume or overall? Per volume it might be neck and neck, but MHA with an anime and a movie being released will probably sell more. Unless KNY's boost is like Kingdom's.

 

[Ctkk]

It'll be interesting to see which Manga will sell more next year, KnY after its incredible boost or MHA.

Maybe it'll be something completely different that nobody expects that surpasses them both.

I mean, who would have said KnY would be giving One Piece a run for its money last year? Literally no one, that's who.

Point is, no point in talking about next year when this one isn't even over yet.

 

[Jovan]

So many votes for 2 new serializations only until January, and that is with 1 free spot waiting to be filled already.

Guess I am going too bold here.

 

[supercow297]

I hate how out of nowhere it was at first but its conclusion was pretty lit. It even made me reread the prequel.


Based Idolchads dabbing on shounenvirgins.



Some people are just incapable to read between the lines, it seems.

And about act-age, I would prefer a live-action drama over anime.

The shounen stuff wouldn't work in live action. Imagine seeing real actors do the dramatic HNGGGHH OH SO GOOD reaction face and also the cool anime posing when rivals meet. It'd be so cringe. Anime is the only way to go.

 

[tirakai]

Is this first Reiwa batch of Samurai 8, Beast Children, Double Taisei, and Tokyo Shinobi Squad the longest a batch of 4+ has went without any cancellations? The longest a batch without hits has went without any being cancelled?

Because unless there's TSS suddenly ends next chapter all of them are going to make it at least to ch 20.

 

[KoL2.0]

Two questions:

1. If S8 was done by a rookie Mangaka, with less promotion, would the potential sales be a good thing? Hell, even with the same promotion?
2. If S8 gets axed relatively soon, do you think Kishimoto is gonna bat a third time or just retire?

I think Shueisha was hoping that Naruto Fanbase would turnout in larger numbers, but 5 going on 6 years inbetween publications is too long imho. Especially with the amount of good series that popped up between S8 and Naruto that exploded. Maybe if S8 came out in the same span that Edens Zero came out after Fairy Tale, this conversation may have been extremely different.

Hell, even Boruto didn’t benefit from the Naruto fanbase all that much. It’s only as high up as it is due to being apart of the Franchise. The retelling killed alot of its momentum too but I personally still love it.

I don’t level all the blame at Kishi. At worst, he can only be blamed for 2 things: (1)Delivering a story with themes the core audience that Shueisha cares about aren’t interested in and (2)Being preachy in the first couple chepters.

While that is a BIG part of the problem along with Info dumps, Shueisha gassing it up with all that promotion drew more attention to it and drive away more readers. I was optimistic but it seems Kishi + Shueisha as a whole, fumbled S8.

I like it alot, but if it cannot last, I hope Kishi gives 1 last shot at manga making. I just gotta prepare for the worst case scenario.

 

[101nemesis]

Two questions:

1. If S8 was done by a rookie Mangaka, with less promotion, would the potential sales be a good thing? Hell, even with the same promotion?
2. If S8 gets axed relatively soon, do you think Kishimoto is gonna bat a third time or just retire?

1. Maybe. There would no expectations and 20-30k debut is pretty respectable.
2. I hope he does. But it would be up to him, if he has any stories to tell.

I think Shueisha was hoping that Naruto Fanbase would turnout in larger numbers, but 5 going on 6 years inbetween publications is too long imho. Especially with the amount of good series that popped up between S8 and Naruto that exploded. Maybe if S8 came out in the same span that Edens Zero came out after Fairy Tale, this conversation may have been extremely different.

Shueisha definitely banked on Naruto fans showing up. I'm gonna assume Boruto being around saturated his fans way too much because despite it not being written by Kishi, the general reader would equate all Boruto/Naruto that is canon to Kishi. So the ones who would've checked out S8 if Boruto had not existed probably didn't care anymore.

Hell, even Boruto didn’t benefit from the Naruto fanbase all that much. It’s only as high up as it is due to being apart of the Franchise. The retelling killed alot of its momentum too but I personally still love it.

Boruto did benefit tho. The sales of its first volume was pretty high. It started dropping from there. But it definitely benefited from Naruto's name.

I like it alot, but if it cannot last, I hope Kishi gives 1 last shot at manga making. I just gotta prepare for the worst case scenario.

Kishi's legacy is intact and no one can take that away from him. So he has nothing to gain or lose. It'll totally be upto him,

So strong to overcome One Piece?

For the year of 2019 in yearly sales of a manga series? Yeah, it's faintly possible.

Are you really comparing One Piece to Kimetsu?

He wasn't. Read his reply and the original comment properly, please.

 

[Leoat12]

I read Mitama, Samurai 8 and TSS today.
If Mitama is making successes in Japan I need to know the magic, maybe I'm Japanese there is some wordplay that makes you laugh your pants off and it is losing in the translation, but so far it is just very lackluster for me and sometimes meaningless.

Samurai 8, in my opinion, had the first entertaining chapter since it started!
I enjoyed this one a little bit, the new rival in battle is interesting, looks more like a samurai, said some truth to Hachimaru that made him grow and we had some insight on Ann's mind. However, I think it went through the contest too fast.

TSS is complicated... I know it is going to end, but don't want it to end... It is very entertaining for me... U.U

 

[Franz]

For the year of 2019 in yearly sales of a manga series? Yeah, it's faintly possible.

At present it has little chance, the editorial year ends in november, it will go very close but probably will not make it ... I imagine that One Piece will do about 9 million or more and Kimetsu about 8.5 million

 

[westabyss]

Are you really comparing One Piece to Kimetsu?

I am not. I am comparing Kimetsu to MHA.

 

[TyVip]

Unless its boost can carry over onto the next year...unlikely. Only One Piece had a boost that carried itself for years until Attack On Titan and Nanatsu no Taizai was able to beat it in half year sales,

One Piece has a volume and a half released when AoT beat it in the first half. I'll give you Taizai though.

Regarding carry itself over the year, I think it's safe to say Kimetsu will be able to do it. Even Food War was in the top 10 for 3 years the year it has an anime (4.4 mil, 3.4 mil, 2.7 mil) despite the dropped in individual volumes sale.

But the boost is still insane though, it has 3.5 million copies in circulation back in Feb, now 12 mil in October (probably more now).

 

[Avok]

This has been one of the most interesting sales periods to say the least.

 

[101nemesis]

At present it has little chance, the editorial year ends in november, it will go very close but probably will not make it ... I imagine that One Piece will do about 9 million or more and Kimetsu about 8.5 million

You're just repeating what everyone has mentioned here. No one has said it WILL beat OP.

Everyone agrees that there is a "faint chance" or its "not impossible but very hard" or "it needs a NUMBER of variables to fall in place to have a chance". We are all saying the same thing.

--- Double Post Merged, Oct 8, 2019, Original Post Date: Oct 8, 2019 ---

This has been one of the most interesting sales periods to say the least.

Truly has been. With S8 and Kimetsu, it's been a rollercoaster ride.

 

[Rouk']

At present it has little chance, the editorial year ends in november, it will go very close but probably will not make it ... I imagine that One Piece will do about 9 million or more and Kimetsu about 8.5 million

Unless One Piece 94 sells extremely badly, it should be way closer to 10M than to 9M by November 17th, considering it was around 8M as of September 29th. Same for Kimetsu, ~7M as of Sep 29, there is no way it sells only 1.5M in seven weeks with a new volume coming out.
The race between them, if it happens, will happen around the 10M mark

Point is, no point in talking about next year when this one isn't even over yet.

To be fair, the discussion that can be made on 2020 is barely linked to the one we are currently having on 2019. Some interesting points would be:
-If OP 95 releases on february (afaik it's not stated for Nov/Dec/Jan), does that mean there is a chance only 3 OP volumes get released for the 2020 Oricon year? (4 volumes if they all come out 3 months of each others, but only 3 if there happens to be 4 months between two of them as sometimes is the case) If there are no movie on top of that, could it actually get overtaken in 2020? (if it hasn't been in 2019 obviously)
-Will the HQ and MHA anime help their respective sales climb up again ?
-What about TPN, when will its season 2 air ? Will it have an effect on the manga's sales ? What about the Live-action movie ?
-Will the Kimetsu movie help its sales ? Was it a wise decision? (faster to make than a 26 episodes season, meaning it may come out while the Kimetsu hype is still going on)
-If Kimetsu and TPN ends before the end of 2020, will they still be able to enter the top 10 ? (Not Jump related, but the same question can be asked for GoToubun and Attack on Titan)
-The WSJ adaptations confirmed for 2020 are: MHA, TPN (anime+Live action), Kimetsu (movie), Black Clover, One Piece and We Never learn (well, late 2019, but still partly after the end of the oricon year) (and Boruto). At this point last year, we had one more (Dr Stone) and a One Piece movie, but Kimetsu had a full season, not just a movie, WNL and MHA count for both 2019 and 2020. So, when will the eventual Act-Age/Jujutsu anime be announced ? Scheduled for which season/year? What about the One Piece live action wildcard?

But none of those are linked to how well Kimetsu ends up doing for those last 7 weeks, or any other WSJ manga for that regard. Though I would still argue that most of those are rather pointless, but not much more than discussing for ~4 months the hypothetical failure (from a sales standpoint) of Samurai 8 without any kind of concrete data

This has been one of the most interesting sales periods to say the least.

I can't agree more. And not just for WSJ stuff.
For the 2019 top 10:
2 manga might reach 10M sold (9M basically guaranteed), one more should reach 8M, one more for the 7M mark, add three more manga that could top 5M (one already has and could reach 6M) and the last three that are already above 3M of which two should pass 4M.
That's, at best, 62M sold for the Top 10, which is way better than the 51M of 2018, the 53M of 2017 and similar to the 61M of 2016.

This year out of the top 10, 6 manga received a considerable boost (Kimetsu, Kingdom, TPN, GoToubun, Kaguya and Slime, though Slime's boost had already started last year). Out of the top 10, 4 are likely to end in less than a year (Kimetsu, TPN, GoToubun and Attack on Titan).

Both of those facts mean that 2020 (and 2021) will look widely different from 2019.

 

[Tamil]

Thus Spoke Kishibe Rohan: The Run & At A Confessional OVA visual

 

[RafGL]

TPN will most likely be finished by the time S2 or Live Action drops. And don't think it will have that much of an effect on sales or a really impressive one due to the huge disappointment fandom is having with the series (not that I actually share it tho). Still, series kinda met a peak with almost 600k per month and I don't think it's going to surpass it. Still, all just guessing. We'll see data tomorrow.

 

[Franz]

You're just repeating what everyone has mentioned here. No one has said it WILL beat OP.

Right:

Tomorrow kimetsu will finally overtake one piece in sells imo

 

[Rain Spectre]

Heh, this is the first time in days where I wake up and the thread isn't being consumed by several pages of S8 debates.

Anyway, since things have quieted down for now, here's a question; What mangaka do you think has had the best/most impressive evolution in their art over time?