Mag Talk Weekly Shonen Jump [2020] - Discussion and ToC Talk

[Shinuki no Reborn]

MANGAHELPERS "TOC" POLL ISSUE #51 - VOTING!​

The poll for issue #51 is now open, vote for your favorite chapters of the week clicking HERE!

Alongside the release of Sakamoto Days, the extra series this week are:

-Dragon Ball Super 66
-Boruto: Naruto Next Generations 52
-Ghost Reaper Girl 10

Good Votes!

 

[Halloween]

Moderator Notice:
Henceforth, I will be deleting posts that complain about Weekly Shonen Jump having too many/not enough gag/battle/exorcism/sports/etc series.

These posts are not insightful, and do not meaningfully contribute to this thread. Also, this decision is not up for discussion, so posts discussing this decision will also be deleted.~ Halloween

 

[Ryuusei]

Spoiler: 52 TOC & 01 Preview

呪 僕 O マ ブ S C D 破 C B 夜 C 僕 あ 灼 ぼ チ 高 ア 森 A 仄 ぼ 次号カラー ヒロアカ アンデラ 夜桜 約ネバ 道産子 GIGA 岸本先生が描くコラボポスター 爆豪クリアファイル

Spoiler: Issue #52 ToC & Preview

Jujutsu Kaisen (Cover & LCP)
My Hero Academia
One Piece
Mashle
Black Clover
Sakamoto Days (CP)
Dr. Stone
Magu-chan: God of Destruction (CP)
Build King
Mission: Yozakura Family
Me & Roboco
Ayakashi Triangle (CP)
Shakunetsu no Niraikanai
We Never Learn
Chainsaw Man
Koukousei Kazoku
Undead Unluck
Moriking
Agravity Boys
Honomieru Shounen
Bokura no Ketsumei

Issue #1
Cover & LCP: My Hero Academia
CP: Undead Unluck, Mission: Yozakura Family, The Promised Neverland, Dosanko Gyaru wa Namaramenkoi

GIGA Preview
Collab poster by Kishimoto
Bakugou clear file

 

[Ryuusei]

June Volumes - 6/4

Jump

My Hero Academia 27
Black Clover 25
Yuuna and the Haunted Hotsprings 22
The Promised Neverland 19
We Never Learn 17
Jujutsu Kaisen 11
Chainsaw Man 7
Mission: Yozakura Family 3
Mitama Security 3
Zipman 2
Undead Unluck 2
Mashle 1

Jump +

Akuma no Memumemu-chan 10
Jigokuraku 10
Otokozaka 9
Ao no Flag 8
Saotome Shimai wa Manga no Tame Nara!? 7
Hoshi no Ouji-sama 6
Melt Away! Mizore-chan 6
Black Clover Gaiden: Quartet Knights 5
Heart Gear 4
Rengoku no Toshi 3
Himitsu no Kajitsu 3
Wa no Kage 2
Kiruru Kill Me 1
Itomotayasuku Okonowareru Juusan Sai Ga Ikiru Tame no Oshigoto 1

 

[NeeNeen]

Anyone wanna do predictions on the Vol 1 sales for the five uncertains?

Sure, why not.

M+ views:
Mashle (95k) > Undead x Unluck (70k) > Gardian of the Witch (57k) > Samurai 8 (52k) > Zipman (39k) > Yozakura (33k) > Agravity Boys (23k) >> Mitama (8k)

The newer series haven't stabilized yet, so we'll have to make some adjustments. Mashle has 3 chapters out and the system counts 4 (or 5, we'll see that on Sunday), which means it will be rising for another week before it starts losing older views. UxU has 4 chapters already, and GarW has 2 more to go.
The biggest problem though is that we need to account for the fact that the first chapter usually does better than the others. The size of the drop is very variable (Mitama had 10k in the first week and 5k in the second, Yozakura started with 25k and stayed there for months), so it'll be more accurate to take the views from the latest chapter and multiply by 4. Mashle had 75k after 2 chapters and 95k now, so let's assume 20k for the average chapter. UxU went from 63k last week to 70k today, so 7k/week. GarW had 46k after the first chapter and 57k now (which means it's dropping hard), so I'll take 6k for the next chapters.
Mashle (80k) > Samurai 8 (52k) > Zipman (40k) > Yozakura (33k) > Undead x Unluck (28k) > Gardian of the Witch (24k) > Agravity Boys (23k) >> Mitama (8k)

Looking at the rankings above, we can make a rough guess about the day 1 positions:
Mashle (~25) > Samurai 8 (30) > Zipman (~35) > Yozakura (40) > Undead x Unluck (~42) > Gardian of the Witch (~44) > Agravity Boys (~45) >> Mitama (51)

Then, looking at the chart, take a shot at the week 1 sales:
Mashle (~20k) > Samurai 8 (18k) > Zipman (~15k) > Yozakura (11k) > Undead x Unluck (~10k) > Gardian of the Witch (~9k) > Agravity Boys (~8k) >> Mitama (5k)

Obviously, these are approaches of estimates of guesstimates. But I'm curious to see if I got the general trends right, at least.

TL;DR version
My predictions on the Vol 1 sales:

Mashle (~20k)
Zipman (~15k)
Undead x Unluck (~10k)
Gardian of the Witch (~9k)
Agravity Boys (~8k)

Let's see if we can update this.

All series have enough chapters out now, so there's no more need for adjustments.

M+ views:

Mashle (116.5k) >> Undead x Unluck (56k) > Samurai 8 (52k) > Gardian of the Witch (41.5k) > Zipman (34k) > Yozakura (33k) > Agravity Boys (23k) >> Mitama (8k)

Looking at the rankings above, we can make a rough guess about the day 1 positions:

Mashle (~20) >> Undead x Unluck (~27) > Samurai 8 (30) > Gardian of the Witch (~35) > Zipman (~40) > Yozakura (40) > Agravity Boys (~45) >> Mitama (51)

Then, looking at the chart, take a shot at the week 1 sales:

Mashle (~30k) >> Undead x Unluck (~20k) > Samurai 8 (18k) > Gardian of the Witch (~15k) > Zipman (~11k) > Yozakura (11k) > Agravity Boys (~8k) >> Mitama (5k)


TL;DR version
My updated predictions on the Vol 1 sales:

Mashle (~30k)
Undead x Unluck (~20k)
Gardian of the Witch (~15k)
Zipman (~11k)
Agravity Boys (~8k)

I wonder which one of the models will be closer...

Prompt: Predict which next couple or so manga will end in what order.

For me, it’ll be ZIPMAN, then Kimetsu, then Neverland, then one of the earlier newbies (mostly either Agravity, Miitama, or Yozakura, but I’ll go with Agravity), then Yuuna.

I'm from Japan
ZIPMAN
Blue Flag
Kimetsu
Spotless
Neverland
Guardian of the Witch
Mitama
Moonland
WNL
Yuuna
Platinum End
Haikyu

 

[TxxT]

2020 estimations as of this week

HeroAca:
Volume 1 had 2 weeks of sales in 2014, under 100k
2015: 2,190,845
2016: 5,114,916
2017: 5,852,310
2018: 6,718,185
2019: 5,047,574
2020: (estimation) 2,600,000
Total: 27,6m

HeroAca's 26m number is from December, when volume 25 released. So considering its sales at this point (First two weeks of Oricon 2020 (under 100k)+vol. 25's first print) it looks like that number is more accurate than Haikyuu's.

Neverland:
2017: 2,039,675
2018: 4,246,955
2019: 7,454,745
2020: (estimation) 2,500,000
Total: 16.2m

The 18m number includes volume 18's first print. So this is closer to what we should expect in terms of difference between shipment and sell-through data. But it may include stuff like the novels so I'm not sure.

Neverland's 18m print also includes digital and worldwide btw, MHA and HQ still don't have digital numbers

 

[Mankichi Togawa]

We have the worldwide numbers for just One Piece and Neverland, don't we?

I'm so curious how would the worldwide numbers of MHA and Dr.Stone be. Dr.Stone is really big in West. And MHA... I would bet that worldwide number of MHA manga + spinoffs would surpass the 35 millions, but that is just mere speculation.

 

[ThunderStorm]

Any other sport, it'd be handball.

 

[Ryuusei]

We have the worldwide numbers for just One Piece and Neverland, don't we?

I'm so curious how would the worldwide numbers of MHA and Dr.Stone be. Dr.Stone is really big in West. And MHA... I would bet that worldwide number of MHA manga + spinoffs would surpass the 35 millions, but that is just mere speculation.

As far as charts go, DS hasn't shown up in NPD Bookscan's charts yet, meanwhile KNY has managed to put a few volumes up in the top 20. MHA just dominates the chart every month, putting multiple titles in the top 20 everytime. DS's popularity seems to be anime focused with barely any effect on manga sales. Here are the charts for January when DS released a volume and the Fall chart. Unfortunately, you need a subscription to get the charts with absolute sales.

Spoiler: January U.S Graphic Novel Sales

Spoiler: Fall U.S Graphic Novel Sales

 

[yadayada]

As far as charts go, DS hasn't shown up in NPD Bookscan's charts yet, meanwhile KNY has managed to put a few volumes up in the top 20. MHA just dominates the chart every month, putting multiple titles in the top 20 everytime. DS's popularity seems to be anime focused with barely any effect on manga sales. Here are the charts for January when DS released a volume and the Fall chart. Unfortunately, you need a subscription to get the charts with absolute sales.

Spoiler: January U.S Graphic Novel Sales

Spoiler: Fall U.S Graphic Novel Sales

It does better in France, still behind OP/MHA/TPN and KnY though.

 

[shoyoboyo]

Any other sport, it'd be handball.

Funnily enough, the mangaka of this handball one-shot from years ago is actually in the mag right now.

It was made by Atsushi Nakamura, the mangaka of Agravity Boys.

 

[CrOF]

If Rui Hachimura works out in the NBA I could see basketball rise in popularity. (I also like basketball the most so I voted for it)

 

[Rox]

Who's the person that posts all the Oricon sales data? Is there a convenient place that compiles it all?

 

[Agafin]

Out of curiosity, where did you get those french numbers? I was under the impression that we had no hard numbers for that

Actually France probably has the best documented data on manga sales and circulation after Japan.

France's Manga Sales

Yearly Circulation 2005-2009 Yearly Circulation 2010-2014 Series Sales 2010 Source 2009 Source Volume Sales 2015 2014 Source 2013 Source 2012 Source 2011 Source 2008 Source 2007 Source 2006 Source 2005 Source Huge thanks to Agafin, bigivelfhq, TheNextChamp, toutoune134 and tsudecimo!

myanimelist.net

^You can find sales/print numbers going back all the way to 2005 (with sources) here.

 

[yadayada]

Actually France probably has the best documented data on manga sales and circulation after Japan.

France's Manga Sales

Yearly Circulation 2005-2009 Yearly Circulation 2010-2014 Series Sales 2010 Source 2009 Source Volume Sales 2015 2014 Source 2013 Source 2012 Source 2011 Source 2008 Source 2007 Source 2006 Source 2005 Source Huge thanks to Agafin, bigivelfhq, TheNextChamp, toutoune134 and tsudecimo!

myanimelist.net

^You can find sales/print numbers going back all the way to 2005 (with sources) here.

TIL, thanks guys, kinda thought all we were getting from france were rankings and vague sales figures but clearly I was wrong

 

[perroloco]

Talking about international sales

Here in Mexico we don't really have any charts about sales but there's a comic seller that publishes their sales across their 17 stores in the country, take it with huge grain of salt though, it's not even the main comic store since here in Mexico panini which is the most important manga publisher also has their stores called Panini Points (way more than 17) but they don't publish their best sellers.

Also keep in mind that KnY just got released here in Mexico so those volumes had less time to sell than the others, though KnY also got volumes 1-2 released at the same time, so who knows if it got 3rd with the sales of both volumes or only one.

Anyway here are sales for this particular comic seller here in Mexico:

February 2020

January 2020

Weird how Naruto and OP were 1st and 2nd in January and then on February 4th and 5th lol

 

[yadayada]

Talking about international sales

Here in Mexico we don't really have any charts about sales but there's a comic seller that publishes their sales across their 17 stores in the country, take it with huge grain of salt though, it's not even the main comic store since here in Mexico panini which is the most important manga publisher also has their stores called Panini Points (way more than 17) but they don't publish their best sellers.

Also keep in mind that KnY just got released here in Mexico so those volumes had less time to sell than the others, though KnY also got volumes 1-2 released at the same time, so who knows if it got 3rd with the sales of both volumes or only one.

Anyway here are sales for this particular comic seller here in Mexico:

February 2020

January 2020

Weird how Naruto and OP were 1st and 2nd in January and then on February 4th and 5th lol

How come naruto is still selling so much over there?

 

[perroloco]

How come naruto is still selling so much over there?

Mexico had a period of time were no manga was being published, from 2008 to 2014ish no manga publisher wanted to give any publisher in Mexico any rights to manga, Mexico was basically banned by manga publishers because the now defunct Mundo Vid had not payed their loyalties before it went bankrupt.

After that period new publishers started publishing manga, and Naruto started being republished.

(Its previous publishing attempt here in Mexico was cancelled in around 2007/2008 with only 27 volumes because Mundo Vid which was basically the only manga publisher here in Mexico and also published DC and Marvel... Went bankrupt...
How can a publishing house with monopoly of DC/Marvel/Shonen Jump titles can go bankrupt?
The heirs to the publishing house basically didn't care about it and just wanted to cash out and made some very dumb decisions).

So basically Naruto is still being published (Since it started from volume 1 in 2015 iirc). In fact every series in the chart (Except for Death Note) is still being published, I don't remember exact volume counts but Naruto is in around volume 50 right now, and so is One Piece (Also around volume 40ish-50ish).

An observation that just ocurred to me: It's interesting to note that BLEACH is also being published (Currently around volume 40) but it doesn't even appear in the top 10, BLEACH sure fell from grace after it ended at least in the perception of people.. Hopefully with the final arc being animated it can recover some of said lost grace.

 

[yadayada]

Mexico had a period of time were no manga was being published, from 2008 to 2014ish no manga publisher wanted to give any publisher in Mexico any rights to manga, Mexico was basically banned by manga publishers because the now defunct Mundo Vid had not payed their loyalties before it went bankrupt.

After that period new publishers started publishing manga, and Naruto started being republished.

(Its previous publishing attempt here in Mexico was cancelled in around 2007/2008 with only 27 volumes because Mundo Vid which was basically the only manga publisher here in Mexico and also published DC and Marvel... Went bankrupt...
How can a publishing house with monopoly of DC/Marvel/Shonen Jump titles can go bankrupt?
The heirs to the publishing house basically didn't care about it and just wanted to cash out and made some very dumb decisions).

So basically Naruto is still being published (Since it started from volume 1 in 2015 iirc). In fact every series in the chart (Except for Death Note) is still being published, I don't remember exact volume counts but Naruto is in around volume 50 right now, and so is One Piece (Also around volume 40ish-50ish).

An observation that just ocurred to me: It's interesting to note that BLEACH is also being published (Currently around volume 40) but it doesn't even appear in the top 10, BLEACH sure fell from grace after it ended at least in the perception of people.. Hopefully with the final arc being animated it can recover some of said lost grace.

Oh yeah, can't believe I noticed naruto and not stuff like DN and freaking RANMA 1/2 lol. Pretty interesting stuff though.

 

[James Rye]

Let's see if we can update this.

All series have enough chapters out now, so there's no more need for adjustments.

M+ views:

Mashle (116.5k) >> Undead x Unluck (56k) > Samurai 8 (52k) > Gardian of the Witch (41.5k) > Zipman (34k) > Yozakura (33k) > Agravity Boys (23k) >> Mitama (8k)

Looking at the rankings above, we can make a rough guess about the day 1 positions:

Mashle (~20) >> Undead x Unluck (~27) > Samurai 8 (30) > Gardian of the Witch (~35) > Zipman (~40) > Yozakura (40) > Agravity Boys (~45) >> Mitama (51)

Then, looking at the chart, take a shot at the week 1 sales:

Mashle (~30k) >> Undead x Unluck (~20k) > Samurai 8 (18k) > Gardian of the Witch (~15k) > Zipman (~11k) > Yozakura (11k) > Agravity Boys (~8k) >> Mitama (5k)


TL;DR version
My updated predictions on the Vol 1 sales:

Mashle (~30k)
Undead x Unluck (~20k)
Gardian of the Witch (~15k)
Zipman (~11k)
Agravity Boys (~8k)

I wonder which one of the models will be closer...




I'm from Japan
ZIPMAN
Blue Flag
Kimetsu
Spotless
Neverland
Guardian of the Witch
Mitama
Moonland
WNL
Yuuna
Platinum End
Haikyu

Aren't M+ views on series counted really weirdly though? I am not sure we can conclude from worldwide views on chapters to Volume sales in Japan.

 

[Rouk']

How come naruto is still selling so much over there?

It seems that outside of Japan, popular manga series keep selling for a while even after their end.

This is France's Top 10 in 2019 (I'm talking about France again, I know, sorry):
1. One Piece
2. My Hero Academia
3. Fairy Tail
4. Naruto
5. The Promised Neverland
6. One Punch Man
7. Dragon Ball Super
8. Dragon Ball
9. Berserk
10. Attack on Titan

None of Fairy Tail/Naruto/Dragon Ball had new volumes released in 2019, yet they compete with the most popular ongoing manga. Naruto's first volume was one of the 20 best-selling volume of 2019. The only manga with a volume that outsold it were One Piece, DBSuper, TPN, MHA and OPM.

Generally speaking, backlog sales make up the bulk of manga sales over here. As you can see, Berserk was #9, with a single volume released (Vol. 40). We don't have exact numbers, but it probably did around 300k (± 50k). If we consider that Vol. 40 most likely sold under 45k (source), that means over 80% of its sales were from older volumes.
But it's not just Berserk, even One Piece is like that. Using that same source, the 4 OP volumes of 2019 sold between 270k and 340k in 2019. Meaning that its backlog sales range from 1.06m units to 1.13m units. That's also close to 80% of backlog sales.

In Japan, in 2019, about 15% of the OP volumes sold were older volumes (ie. Vol 1 to 90). One Piece volumes 1-90 sold 1.55m units, which is... not so far from the French numbers.

Basically, you can't analyse French sales the same way you analyse Japanese sales. And that's also true for video games, games are much less front-loaded in France than in Japan. Based on the video game market (because we have more data for that than for the manga market) I would even say there are two categories of countries. First, countries like Japan/USA/UK where first week/month sales matter a lot. In those case, from the early data alone, you can tell whether a title sold well or not. Then, the rest of the world (? Hard to say exactly, but it seems to me that countries such as France, Germany, Spain or even Korea are like that) where the first week/month does not hold as much importance, as it's all about how well it sells in the long run.

It's obviously a huge simplification of the subject, but you can definitely find different trends in terms of how products sell in the long run.

 

[Mankichi Togawa]

I was seeing some sales numbers in Spain in 2018, and the top-3 I found was: 1. Dragon Ball, 2. One Piece, 3. My Hero Academia. Spain loves Dragon Ball too much.

 

[Shinuki no Reborn]

Let's see if we can update this.

All series have enough chapters out now, so there's no more need for adjustments.

M+ views:

Mashle (116.5k) >> Undead x Unluck (56k) > Samurai 8 (52k) > Gardian of the Witch (41.5k) > Zipman (34k) > Yozakura (33k) > Agravity Boys (23k) >> Mitama (8k)

Looking at the rankings above, we can make a rough guess about the day 1 positions:

Mashle (~20) >> Undead x Unluck (~27) > Samurai 8 (30) > Gardian of the Witch (~35) > Zipman (~40) > Yozakura (40) > Agravity Boys (~45) >> Mitama (51)

Then, looking at the chart, take a shot at the week 1 sales:

Mashle (~30k) >> Undead x Unluck (~20k) > Samurai 8 (18k) > Gardian of the Witch (~15k) > Zipman (~11k) > Yozakura (11k) > Agravity Boys (~8k) >> Mitama (5k)


TL;DR version
My updated predictions on the Vol 1 sales:

Mashle (~30k)
Undead x Unluck (~20k)
Gardian of the Witch (~15k)
Zipman (~11k)
Agravity Boys (~8k)

I wonder which one of the models will be closer...




I'm from Japan
ZIPMAN
Blue Flag
Kimetsu
Spotless
Neverland
Guardian of the Witch
Mitama
Moonland
WNL
Yuuna
Platinum End
Haikyu

I still don't know why you're using Manga Plus views to predict sales, specially when the prediction end up putting Zipman with something like 11k copies and above Agravity Boys or even Yozakura, also Guardian with 15k, which honestly is like 99% not happening