Theory Final Tournament Line-up Discussion/Predictions

[Kaoz]

I feel like you are rostered to play a match but you don't play it since your team wins before you get to play. You can still be elected to play another match until you actually and physically play a match.

That is possible, but wouldn't it create a problem in the opposite direction? If we use this line of thinking to always put Camus into S1 for instance, why would Japan not always use Byoudouin in S1? The risk would be about the same for both sides.

 

[ChinkyCandie]

Well, I'd say Byodoin would be saved for the semis/finals. As the captain of Japan, he'll be playing the decider matches and take Japan to the top of the world.

 

[Kaoz]

I agree that he won't play before the semis, but why does that standard not apply to Camus and Medanore then?

 

[ChinkyCandie]

France and Spain may/can underestimate their opponents and think Camus/Medanore aren't worth using to destroy their opponents.

 

[Hardy]

I agree that he won't play before the semis, but why does that standard not apply to Camus and Medanore then?

Maybe you are allowed to make last minute changes to the line-up? So like, round is 2-2, S1 is about to be played, and Camus just steps in instead of someone from the line-up? Sounds cheap but it's possible.

 

[Kaoz]

France and Spain may/can underestimate their opponents and think Camus/Medanore aren't worth using to destroy their opponents.

I think there's a misunderstanding here. Because if that was the case, it would make even less sense for them to play in a round 2 match as opposed to the semifinals or finals (I think we can agree that it's more likely to underestimate a lower ranked team you face earlier in the tournament).

Maybe you are allowed to make last minute changes to the line-up? So like, round is 2-2, S1 is about to be played, and Camus just steps in instead of someone from the line-up? Sounds cheap but it's possible.

Doubt it, but for the sake of argument, why would he? If none of his teammates can win that match, France is definitely not going to win the next round against Germany either.

 

[Hardy]

There's many reasons (and plenty I probably haven't considered).


-Imagine it's Duke and the French hadn't expected him on the line-up. "Only Camus can control his shots" or something like that. In that scenario, it's the ONLY way they can pass. Rather play your cards and perhaps be dead tomorrow instead of giving up today.

-Germany could play an alternative line-up, or the French could try to win it in 3 sets quickly, or France could just be lucky, dk, there are many possibilities that are better than being eliminated.

-Sponsors. The more matches they play, the more visibility French players get. Even if they stop being a top contender and their chances would be lowered, they would like to get as far as possible to not only aim for the title but to build a career for themselves and their teammates.

--- Double Post Merged, Nov 8, 2017, Original Post Date: Nov 8, 2017 ---

Was also thinkig about it, but as we havent heard of "reserves" in the past, perhaps that spot always goes to team captains or just the strongest player according to the coach (and they can be subbed in and out as they desire, as long as they dont play later?)

 

[Kaoz]

I dunno, I guess we'll have to agree to disagree for now. I could also bring Germany using their 3 pros in the semis (which is probably going to happen) instead and depending on the rules not having any left for the final, it's the same basic issue. Overall I just hope there's going to be a solid reason for the top players making an early appearance and it's not because the plot demands that Japan defeats them on the way to the finals. It worked out fairly well in the group league because of the format, but it's a bit of a different story in an elimination bracket.

I don't know about the reserves idea in that form either, but what if there was just a need for a regular reserve player? That could be plausible to let someone play a match without giving up their turn I guess.

 

[Hardy]

Yeah meant the reserve player thing in that sense as well. Its a great way to have a stronger player in a less important match.

Have you thought that Germany perhaps "has a lot more strong players!" just to justify Volk playing in semis?

 

[Kaoz]

Have you thought that Germany "has a lot more strong players!" just to justify Volk playing in semis?

Honestly, as long as there's a somewhat sensible explanation at all I'll probably be ok with it. A scenario that would bother me is having Volk, Pro B, Pro D, QP and Tezuka all in the semis when they wouldn't be allowed to play in the finals anymore.

 

[ChinkyCandie]

^ If that was the lineup for Germany in the semis, how would Japan counter that?
We all expect Fuji vs Tezuka and Fuji will finally have his first victory against Tezuka; Irie may get his revenge by destroying QP; Volk will lose for the first time since he became pro (hopefully against Oni or Tokugawa). Germany wins doubles but Japan wins singles.

PS: Still want the Amadeus vs Byodoin singles 1 in the finals :P

In regards to Camus, the only players he won't underestimate will be Duke, Byodoin (I think Camus knows about him from two years ago), and maybe even Oni. Medanore needs to get through USA in the QFs.

 

[Kaoz]

^ If that was the lineup for Germany in the semis, how would Japan counter that?

For the HSers, I'd expect them to use two to three of [Byoudouin, Tanegashima, Duke, Tokugawa, Oni, Irie] and maybe a throwaway like Ohmagari. Fuji seems pretty set on the MSer side with guys like [Atobe, Yukimura, Shiraishi, Sanada, Kintarou] being other probable candidates. Ryoma won't play before the finals unless players can be re-used. As for specific match-ups, there are quite a few possibilities. I'm not sure about Irie playing QP again, mostly because Konomi doesn't do rematches very often. Of course it could be argued that they didn't really play against each other last time. Tanegashima seems like a potential alternative though.

Volk won't play against anyone except Byoudouin, Tokugawa or Ryoma I think. The other two pros can probably be taken down by most of the HSers and a couple of the MSers I listed above though. Oni vs Pro D for instance.

Germany wins doubles but Japan wins singles.

Well, depends on the match order I guess. I'd expect Germany to win the first two matches and Japan to win the last three.

--- Double Post Merged, Nov 14, 2017, Original Post Date: Nov 9, 2017 ---

@Hardy
I have some questions about your line-up prediction if you don't mind.

S3: Sengoku
D2: Kaji / Kikumaru
S2: Yanagi
D1: Kimijima (captain) / Marui
S1: Mouri

• Why do you have Kaji in such an early round? Keeping in mind that from the mid-level HSers, we had Ochi and Tohno against Greece and Ohmagari against Switzerland - in other words, Japan used the higher ranked one against the stronger opponent - do you think that kind of pattern won't continue in the main tournament or do you think Kaji's level has dropped due to being out of commission for a while?
• When we talked about potential team captains for the first round, only Kimijima was brought up if memory serves. But how would you feel about Ochi considering he actually was a team captain in school? Do you think that piece of trivia might be foreshadowing?
• Knowing now that Yanagi doesn't have data on Aramenoma (which I assume you didn't at the time of submitting that line-up), do you still feel he's likely to be chosen for this match?

 

[Hardy]

Well, depends on the match order I guess. I'd expect Germany to win the first two matches and Japan to win the last three.

--- Double Post Merged, Nov 14, 2017, Original Post Date: Nov 9, 2017 ---

@Hardy
I have some questions about your line-up prediction if you don't mind.

• Why do you have Kaji in such an early round? Keeping in mind that from the mid-level HSers, we had Ochi and Tohno against Greece and Ohmagari against Switzerland - in other words, Japan used the higher ranked one against the stronger opponent - do you think that kind of pattern won't continue in the main tournament or do you think Kaji's level has dropped due to being out of commission for a while?
• When we talked about potential team captains for the first round, only Kimijima was brought up if memory serves. But how would you feel about Ochi considering he actually was a team captain in school? Do you think that piece of trivia might be foreshadowing?
• Knowing now that Yanagi doesn't have data on Aramenoma (which I assume you didn't at the time of submitting that line-up), do you still feel he's likely to be chosen for this match?

Didn't think of any pattern really, I just assumed Kaji would elevate the level of the crappy team I was presenting -even if I think he isn't fully healed- while at the same time I liked the idea of him partnering with Kikumaru and being in the same team as Mouri.

Ochi had a great and decently long match quite recently so I expected him to be skipped this round. Next round will have (probably) Duke (or someone AS strong) as a captain so, in the end, I don't see Ochi getting a captain spot in the tournament.

Yanagi is the pick I'm the least comfortable with and that I'll prolly end up changing, just need to think about it some more.

 

[ChinkyCandie]

^ Going to have to disagree with you here. Duke isn't captain material, he's a follower. He barely talks and only replies with "indeed". If Ochi plays against France, he's more likely to be team captain than Duke.

 

[Hardy]

I can agree with that, tried to say something of the like when I said "as strong". I don't see Ochi leading over Duke though, perhaps Kimijima at most. Tane+Duke could be too much of an overkill against France but it's also possible.

 

[ChinkyCandie]

Ochi may not make a good captain but he'd make an interesting one. Ignore his orders, prepare to be mentally assassinated.

 

[Kaoz]

Well, the captain doesn't necessarily have to be the strongest player on the team. Didn't consider Ochi leading against France, but it could work out - if Camus throws some surprise tactics at them, having a captain like Tanegashima, Kimijima or Ochi, who isn't easily fazed by that, wouldn't be a bad move.

--- Double Post Merged, Jan 12, 2018, Original Post Date: Nov 15, 2017 ---

Some updated long-term predictions now that we know the rules and everything:

Germany
S3 Fuji
D2 Kaji/Marui
S2 Ryoma
D1 Oni/Yukimura
S1 Byoudouin

*Possibly switch Ryoma and Oni depending on where Tezuka plays.

Finals
S3 Kintarou
D2 Ochi/Atobe
S2 Irie
D1 Tokugawa/Kite
S1 Ryoma

Didn't manage to fit in Tanegashima anywhere which bothers me a little, but what can you do.

 

[ChinkyCandie]

Ochi./Atobe would work. Why Tokugawa with Kite? Weird doubles combo. Kite will probably have one more match. Hopefully he wins for the first time. All his losses are on-screen.
Still think Byodoin will have a match in the finals. Kite is more suited against Germany than the finals. What about a Tokugawa/Byodoin doubles pair? GS pair hahahahaha

By the way, I think its about time the OP was updated with new information. Switzerland is playing Portugal. I assume Spain's playing China then. We know Germany is playing South Africa again.
Which leaves Canada vs Taiwan

 

[Kaoz]

Why Tokugawa with Kite? Weird doubles combo. Kite will probably have one more match. Hopefully he wins for the first time. All his losses are on-screen.
Still think Byodoin will have a match in the finals. Kite is more suited against Germany than the finals. What about a Tokugawa/Byodoin doubles pair?

They fit thematically. Kite is about showing off Okinawa's strength on the world stage and the only other characters with a predominant "world" theme are Byoudouin and Tokugawa. I actually had Byoudouin/Kite at first, but remembering the 7/8 match, Kite became more of a team player there when protecting Marui from Tohno's executions, and that fits better with Tokugawa than with Byoudouin.

I could see Byoudouin in the finals if either Kintarou or Tokugawa plays in the semis instead. Byoudouin/Tokugawa pair would probably be too overpowered, although I wouldn't object to it. That said, Kite in the semis feels weird to me too because (1) Ohmagari is training him to take revenge for their group league loss, and (2) I just can't see him facing two pros. It doesn't seem likely to me that he'll be in singles either.

By the way, I think its about time the OP was updated with new information.

Indeed. Updated.

 

[ChinkyCandie]

Love how your updated predictions sound more exciting than the previous one.
Tokugawa/Irie would make an interesting pair. Of course, Tokugawa will have to make Irie play serious from the get go.
It would make more sense to swap Yukimura with Kite. I do agree with the Oni vs Germany but Byodoin wouldn't miss a rematch with Amadeus.