Mag Talk Weekly Shonen Jump [2020] - Discussion and ToC Talk

[Shinuki no Reborn]

MANGAHELPERS "TOC" POLL ISSUE #51 - VOTING!​

The poll for issue #51 is now open, vote for your favorite chapters of the week clicking HERE!

Alongside the release of Sakamoto Days, the extra series this week are:

-Dragon Ball Super 66
-Boruto: Naruto Next Generations 52
-Ghost Reaper Girl 10

Good Votes!

 

[Halloween]

Moderator Notice:
Henceforth, I will be deleting posts that complain about Weekly Shonen Jump having too many/not enough gag/battle/exorcism/sports/etc series.

These posts are not insightful, and do not meaningfully contribute to this thread. Also, this decision is not up for discussion, so posts discussing this decision will also be deleted.~ Halloween

 

[Ryuusei]

Spoiler: 52 TOC & 01 Preview

呪 僕 O マ ブ S C D 破 C B 夜 C 僕 あ 灼 ぼ チ 高 ア 森 A 仄 ぼ 次号カラー ヒロアカ アンデラ 夜桜 約ネバ 道産子 GIGA 岸本先生が描くコラボポスター 爆豪クリアファイル

Spoiler: Issue #52 ToC & Preview

Jujutsu Kaisen (Cover & LCP)
My Hero Academia
One Piece
Mashle
Black Clover
Sakamoto Days (CP)
Dr. Stone
Magu-chan: God of Destruction (CP)
Build King
Mission: Yozakura Family
Me & Roboco
Ayakashi Triangle (CP)
Shakunetsu no Niraikanai
We Never Learn
Chainsaw Man
Koukousei Kazoku
Undead Unluck
Moriking
Agravity Boys
Honomieru Shounen
Bokura no Ketsumei

Issue #1
Cover & LCP: My Hero Academia
CP: Undead Unluck, Mission: Yozakura Family, The Promised Neverland, Dosanko Gyaru wa Namaramenkoi

GIGA Preview
Collab poster by Kishimoto
Bakugou clear file

 

[animeexpert]

And it would be about two years of publication, it seems fair.


So much so that there is not much left to tell.

Just

Spoiler

Asta's backstory, the identity of the demon of his grimoire and who will be the new Wizard King.

For all this two years are enough.

the thing is the story isnt only based on asta, there are many plans tabata has for its story and hes an author that has ALOT of ideas. we barely had ''worldbuilding'' before the time-skip. 2 years is too if the elf arc was already like a year

 

[pamuchi]

I didn't state at any point that BC was an "unpopular flop" but nice attempt in trying to paint a false narrative, I guess.
I said it was a moderately successful anime and average seller as a manga. Both statements are accurate. Please prove these statements wrong otherwise

Are we really going back to this argument "Everything sold better back then".
It's funny how the top series in WSJ right now, One Piece, KNY, MHA, TPN, HQ are all selling similarly to back then.
JK (without an anime) outsells BC (with an anime). Meaning with an anime, it can at the very least do 400-500k.
World Trigger continued to grow AFTER it's hiatus and reached new peaks.
Dr. Stone is on the rise and almost matches BC meaning its franchise is growing.
SxF a brand new series exploded with popularity right off the bat with more sales.
Act Age and CSM, both very non-conventional WSJ series are growing with very single volume. Act Age is slowly catching up to BC as well.

But sure, when it comes to your series, "Everything sold better back then".
It's such a lazy argument.

RxL, S8, Illegal Rare all had decent numbers for a starting franchise but the lack of growth meant it wasn't worth the investment. BC's growth is not +ve, it's -ve. Meaning there is no growth for BC.



Gintama was a top-tier series. It wasn't mid-tier. It was top tier because what it did as a comedy was akin to what Naruto/Bleach, at the very least, did as a battle manga.
Gintama's peak print numbers were 700k, if I'm not mistaken. It sold more than any other comedy in WSJ. It's anime grossed more (both as movies and in sales) than any other long running franchise. It's franchise revenue for multiple years was among the top. Yeah, sure. BC and Gintama are totally the same tiers.
Thanks for the laugh, I guess.

Like I said, BC is fine for now. WSJ also needs new series to pick up.
But I'd still wager, 1.5 years with declining sales will definitely lead to it's end.

If you've been following WSJ properly, you'd know this by now.

I think what he meant about the mid tier thing, is that Gintama was above the mid tier series in the ranking. Not that the series is mid tier.

 

[101nemesis]

I think what he meant about the mid tier thing, is that Gintama was above the mid tier series. Not that the series is mid tier.

Top of mid-tier means it was mid-tier but at the top of that list. Which is a wrong assessment.
Gintama was top-tier.

 

[yadayada]

The comparison is because they fill about the same spot in the magazine from their respective eras, Gintama was pretty much the top of the mid-tier series but couldn't compete with the top pillars of the magazine, which is the same state as Black Clover.

This is an era of Jump where series (that aren't gag manga) sell under 100k per volume last more than 200 chapters and end naturally. And some series popular enough to be at the top of the magazine are selling the amount some mid-magazine stuff did in the 00s.

And now that they've got 8 slots filled by new at-risk series (likely 9 soon), standards for success are probably just going to drop even more.

Black clover does not fill the spot that Gintama filled at all. It's in a very fragile position, it's not "solidly sitting on top of the middle tier" anymore and one quick glance at its average TOC placements this year would tell you that much. If it's in this spot now and the trend continues the way it is, in 2 years, let alone five it'll barely even considerable mid tier, if even that. To claim that it is in the same spot as Gintama, which managed to maintain a very solid position for 70 (!) volumes, is ludicrous.

I have nothing against the series and like I said, it won't be cancelled anytime soon. But that's because as long as this streak of disappointing new series continues, the magazine simply will not be in a state where it can afford to. It simply isn't where Gintama was.

 

[Avok]

I think Black Clover still has around a good 3 years left.
Thinking it will run for 500 or more chapters is as silly as thinking it will be cancelled soon.

 

[101nemesis]

I think Black Clover still has around a good 3 years left.
Thinking it will run for 500 or more chapters is as silly as thinking it will be cancelled soon.

1.5 years to 2 years means 75 to 100 chapters. I've constantly stated 1.5-2 years in my responses because that's a realistic timeline.
75-100 chapters or weeks in WSJ is a long time. Enough time for multiple arcs or one large arc. Death Note was ~105 chapters long in length total.

 

[Azure Warrior]

Now that I see some Ninku talk, I want to rescue Tar-chan. This manga was serialized in Jump in 1988 and lasted until 1995. Oda was an assistant in that manga, and you can clearly see how Luffy in OP first years has a similar design to Tar-chan MC.

You have my respect.

Tar-Chan is so underrated when it was a manga that really knew how to balance comedy and serious action as it evolved. He should had been playable in a Jump game a long time ago when the author Tokuhiro had two consecutive successes (three if we should could Shin Jungle King Tar-Chan as its own thing) in Jump.

 

[El Jacco]

Cute doggo is cute.

I really like SxF covers, they have such a simple pattern but it works so well.

 

[101nemesis]

Cute doggo is cute.
I really lile SxF covers, they have such a simple pattern but it works so well.

Don't follow SxF but I'd buy that volume just for that doggo.

 

[tirakai]

I've been following the ToC since a little before Nura ended, and I remember Gintama spending most of its time in the bottom 5 or just outside it, but with occasional chapters randomly jumping up high (which I think happened less and less frequently as it went on). It definitely didn't maintain solid rankings the whole time. For few years, I remember the bottom of the magazine would always look something like


Gintama
Bleach
new flop
new flop

most issues. A few other stuff frequented the bottom too during their runs (like Medaka Box and Beelzebub) hanging out with those two a lot.

 

[Reading Somethin']

??? What are these comments?

The only reason Black clover could survive 2 years is because of the magazines position.
I still doubt 2 years because of the coronavirus. Sales are in decline, and series in decline usually drop faster without an anime and there might not be anime for a while because of the virus.

Sure the anime is popular, but popularity isn't everything. Profitability is. There's a reason why BC only got one character in jump force despite complaints and being aimed at a western audience. Jump doesn't want to promote a series with declining sales. When Kimetsu ends, BC is not going to regain a top spot on group covers and it won't improve on the toc.
At this point 2 years is looking like a stretch, let alone more than 2.

 

[yadayada]

I've been following the ToC since a little before Nura ended, and I remember Gintama spending most of its time in the bottom 5 or just outside it, but with occasional chapters randomly jumping up high (which I think happened less and less frequently as it went on). It definitely didn't maintain solid rankings the whole time. For few years, I remember the bottom of the magazine would always look something like


Gintama
Bleach
new flop
new flop

most issues.

The rankings eventually dropped towards its final years, that's true, but the sales remained high enough to justify it staying. Volume 70 was still selling above 200k FM, something that black clover is already unable to do.

 

[101nemesis]

I've been following the ToC since a little before Nura ended, and I remember Gintama spending most of its time in the bottom 5 or just outside it, but with occasional chapters randomly jumping up high (which I think happened less and less frequently as it went on). It definitely didn't maintain solid rankings the whole time. For few years, I remember the bottom of the magazine would always look something like


Gintama
Bleach
new flop
new flop

most issues. A few other stuff frequented the bottom too during their runs (like Medaka Box and Beelzebub) hanging out with those two a lot.

By your logic Bleach and Kochikame were also mid tier then.
WSJ has always pushed veteran top tier series to the back after their peaks. Prince of Tennis was also pushed towards the rear end of the magazine as well towards its final two years with oscillating placements every now and then.

 

[tirakai]

??? What are these comments?

The only reason Black clover could survive 2 years is because of the magazines position.
I still doubt 2 years because of the coronavirus. Sales are in decline, and series in decline usually drop faster without an anime and there might not be anime for a while because of the virus.

Sure the anime is popular, but popularity isn't everything. Profitability is. There's a reason why BC only got one character in jump force despite complaints and being aimed at a western audience. Jump doesn't want to promote a series with declining sales. When Kimetsu ends, BC is not going to regain a top spot on group covers and it won't improve on the toc.
At this point 2 years is looking like a stretch, let alone more than 2.

Profitability isn't a concern at all, even if it drops to 25% of its current sales it'd still be plenty profitable. In other magazines, a series that sells around 6k per volume is a decent hit and lasts for years (like Rokudou no Onna-tachi in Champion). Put Kamio Yui for example over in Sunday or Champion with the same sales and it'd be a solid mid-magazine series. Put it in a more minor magazine and it'd be secondary to only two or three big hits. I'd bet most flops are profitable here even, WSJ just has very high average sales for the industry so they look awful in comparison.

Also Black Clover's never had a top spot on covers anyway, it's always been in the second row at most.

 

[Reading Somethin']

Profitability isn't a concern at all, even if it drops to 25% of its current sales it'd still be plenty profitable. In other magazines, a series that sells around 6k per volume is a decent hit and lasts for years (like Rokudou no Onna-tachi in Champion). Put Kamio Yui for example over in Sunday or Champion with the same sales and it'd be a solid mid-magazine series. Put it in a more minor magazine and it'd be secondary to only two or three big hits. I'd bet most flops are profitable here even, WSJ just has very high average sales for the industry so they look awful in comparison.

Also Black Clover's never had a top spot on covers anyway, it's always been in the second row at most.

I never said anything about the industry in general. Black Clover is in Jump, it is subject to the magazine's rules, not the general industry.

 

[tirakai]

Even within Jump, series that struggled to ever sell above 30k have lasted a good few years and ended naturally. And look at Yuuna right now, how much does it get per volume? ~60k maybe? And it's still sticking around spending plenty of time wrapping up everthing. 20k to 30k is profitable enough for WSJ.

Even with sales dropping, Black Clover's never going to hit a point where it's no longer profitable even by WSJ standards, what matters to them is if it's still popular enough with their weekly readers.

 

[Franz]

the thing is the story isnt only based on asta

Ehm, Yes?

 

[perroloco]

Now I wonder what the standards were like for Jump in the 70's..

Jump manga of the 70s didn't sell super well from the numbers we have, but in the late 70s it started getting the super hot sellers like Ring Ni Kakero, Cobra, Kochikame, Kinnikuman and then in the early 80s Dr.Slump and Captain Tsubasa.

I think Jump hottest manga from its start until it got to Ring Ni Kakero/Cobra was a western manga called Koya No Shonen Isamu, it even got re-released during Jump 45tj anniversary in a very expensive edition (1,400 yen per volume IIRC).

 

[Reading Somethin']

Even within Jump, series that struggled to ever sell above 30k have lasted a good few years and ended naturally. And look at Yuuna right now, how much does it get per volume? ~60k maybe? And it's still sticking around spending plenty of time wrapping up everthing. 20k to 30k is profitable enough for WSJ.

Even with sales dropping, Black Clover's never going to hit a point where it's no longer profitable even by WSJ standards, what matters to them is if it's still popular enough with their weekly readers.

Black Clover is a battle manga, different situations. BC could survive due to being a more "classic" battle shonen, but I wouldn't bet on it.
It's sad, but competition is what makes Jump the way it is. The toc in combination with sales, while considering the fact BC never sold 400k or higher makes me doubt BC's chances.

 

[TJQ15]

Using Jump's weird calendar year yes, but Chapter 1 of Jojo came out on Dec 2nd, 1986.

You think they do this since there are so many weeks off at the end of the year for WSJ that saying all the December releases are the next year releases, gives them a longer shelf life?