Games Mafia Game 144 - Pan the Diver - Night 3

[Copy Panda]

D4 VOTES

Voting 0/11

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DAY DURATION

Beware of the poll closing time. ​

 

[GrySun]

This one's for Lumi. D1 thoughts:

Some early-ish analysis:

• Tatsu - said she is fine diving wherever but picked the deep dive option in poll. Did not post much at all and thus also not shared anything about her role/s yet.
• Holt - only thing he said so far is that he is fine with the current depth(the top). But not sure why he then votes for diving 80m, as this will descend us(albeit not immediately).
• Pompom - said she doesn't like much either of her two roles but prefers shallow depth. Is either PAAP or APPA.
• Mazino - only said he prefers the middle depth.
• Snehal - he was a bit too afraid of bad attention perhaps? Because he immediately backed down and apologized when Sam looked at him scary. Bit unnatural, not like there's any reason to be this on edge is there? Hm.
• Val - wants to dive deep. Said a couple of things but too hard to string together into a role hint for now, but interesting posts to look back on maybe.
• Erin - interestingly is only passive roles, 2 of which are vanilla town. The Sam placeholder feels a bit forced/out of the blue, to my eyes.
• DD - said absolutely nothing of value, even tiptoeing around his roles and what he has. Sus imo.
• Style - most notably, in favor of flopping along on the surface of the ocean. Hasn't said anything else particularly noteworthy, but like Val left some detached comments about his role that could look like something when revisiting it later with his claim side by side.
• Shino - ABAB pattern, prefers her B role and wants to dive to it. Accepted at first that we're staying at the top but then started being very annoyed/antagonistic towards us non divers? I dont agree with her reasoning about it being bad to stay at the same depth level/surface, but I get that she wants her role that's deeper. Overall non alignment indicative stuff with her, unless we want to see the urge for unlocking her better role as a town thing.
• arrow - PAAP. Doesnt seem too insistent on reaching his active A roles. Hasn't voted in the poll at all so far? Perhaps a bit strange. I do think he sounds like how he played last game as town, fwiw.
• Lumi - has 3 different roles, so unlike the norm. Pattern is PAAP. Said he prefers staying up, and later said he prefers his first role(the passive one) which is interesting as active roles tend to be more fun and interesting. Trusted Nash-tasha and voted DD.
• Natasha - A fellow APPA. Trusting her is extremely risky and trying to analyze posts nearly futile endeavor. I'll still risk it and say she is green, comes across as trying/putting in some solving efforts. Only shaky thing is - why does she trust me? Said it's my strong claim but my claim wasn't strong at all, only detailed.
• Dego - not sure what to think of him. I agree with many of his thoughts, and yet he feels... lukewarm? Voted me as he said he would but the passion seems lacking. PPAP is a bit of an oddity among the currently shared patterns. Maybe has spread more uncertainty/suspicions than seen who he can trust?
• Sam - has 3 different roles. Thats about as much as I'm gonna read into Sam this early. As usual seems committed and all, so easy green read but need to be wary.

Thoughts evolved on D2:

• Tatsu - interestingly still hasn't share anything about her pattern but we all seem to just accept it. Has come out guns blazing D2 shutting down all the crocodile tears about DD and made it clear she doesn't consider the non-DD voters any more favorable than the DD voters. Kinda neutral about her, she's playing things safe by not homing in on any one person or group in particular, keeping her options.
• Pompom - distrusting her a lot more since my D1 list, is one of my bigger suspects. A bit too hasty to defend DD and to trust shino based on guts. Honestly expected her more excited and posting more because she loves the theme as much as I do. Not that she's not busy but she could post more but doesn't. Don't think that's particularly an alignment tell for her, but her enthusiasm is surprisingly low.
• Mazino - Still highly afk, just very busy. A shame, he can be a really good head when he's around. I do think his vote on shino, albeit past the closing hour of the day phase, is kind of a town indicator from his limited info at the time.
• Snehal - Seems overwhelmed by the game and all the text(i dont think theres that much posts). Saw him reading often but seldom says anything. At least since D1 has claimed PPPP(though after a potential N1 coaching by mafia team) and only plain townie. I don't buy it frankly, and while there is some Death Miller risk to lynching him, the same applies to many of us with vanilla townie as half our roles, I'd like to hope hosts wouldn't overdo it with troll vanillas given the game's already difficult.
  One thing to note - he seemed unsure whether he is allowed to even share what his role is. God-tier roleplaying of clueless newbie if he is mafia, so could he be town after all? But if town neither his role nor his current posts are gonna be of help in the coming days.
• Val - I do like that he is involving himself in issues that he wasn't tagged for, like adding his thoughts about the sam-dego situation on his own. Mostly against DD voters but that's fair I suppose. Has expressed doubt at Snehal having 4 vanilla roles.
• Erin - PPPP pattern(though that should've been obvious to me since her D1 comments I listed in previous recap). Overall is surprisingly tame so far this game, ie. not really combating anyone like Sam. But I'm also not really feeling the town-Erin feeling I usually feel with her. Maybe needs more posts but not too high in my trusted list.
• Style - Not sure what that question was about on D2, implying he has some investigative results he could share. A bit weird he asks about the meta now, after having already played a few games. Trying to appear clueless? Didn't do much of note today other than that and defending his DD voting. Less fond of him D2 than I was D1... Claimed APPA pattern still in D1, probably after my recap.
• shino - Struggling with her, she made allegations of what I said that was false. But would she be this bold as mafia, or just misremembering D1 happenings on the spot as town? I don't trust her much though I am really trying to find some angle that makes me feel better about her. If she is mafia we did an insane fumble to not switch to her from DD. Refusing to share more about her roles(why?) at least which one is active or passive, which I'm also not fond of.
• arrow - Hasn't said anything of note today other than back his DD voting logic. I dont think DD was ignoring him that much, at least not more than he ignores all of us anyway.
• Lumi - kinda getting very friendly with me? Suspects snehal so far but that's an easy one to suspect. Most interestingly, he prefers his passive role on current depth to his deeper active roles. Surely most active roles are better/more fun than passive roles? Then again, Holt also wanted to not dive and he died a vanilla townie(if he doesnt revive as Jesus next day I will be both confused and sad). Is playing the "I cant tell the sus from the green apart" shtick, I guess neither can I much, but there should be at least a couple that he trusts and distrusts at this point maybe?
• Natasha - most surprising to me is how much she overlooks Pompom. Should have as much beef to pick with her as with shino yet focusing on shino a ton more. Not even any passing comments on Pompom. I'd have thought they're not in the same team due to Pom's vote on her D1 but Nash's ignoring of her is... strange. Has really mostly stuck to focusing shino over anyone else this day, barely even much thought or totems written down. Idk what to think of Nash..
• Dego + Sam - these two must be listed together now. Very intertwined, I think the chances that both are town defusers and town bombs are very slim unless Panda is expecting way too much from town to piece together despite town being on a losing spree. I think of the two I trust Sam more, but Dego has played his hand very well and hasn't said much to distrust, in fact even making some good counter arguments towards Sam, + Sam has said some very uninformed things today that could also be seen as mafia lies.. The difference between them is slim with Sam barely winning out in trust, but one should be mafia, hard to go there currently though.

Hmmmm. Such a difficult game with not much to go off of. Our D1 lynch was bad but it was a townie who lied. If we need to start accounting for lies coming from townies, how can we even catch the mafias?

Dego+Sam is difficult at this point to try and settle nor can we rely on one locking on the other to tank the bomb.

I'd like to say the 4 mafias are Pompom, shino, Val/Snehal(one or the other) + one of Dego/Sam. But I can't shake a bad feeling regarding Natasha and Style where one could be scum. I need to put a vote down but not sure on who.

 

[SirSamuel016]

I've been trying to discern which but Shino is refusing to clarify her A role and Pomcha is not really engaging with me, only speaking of me.

I'm happy to try either tbh, but I'd like to shower to collect my thoughts first

 

[Natasha]

Spy claim? Why don't you tell me what you saw then? coz I have trust issues here.

Why Spy?
I could be Prosti or Det too here with that line of questioning.

I am claiming one of those three right now, yes.
Please tell me if your A role is active/passive and if you got any feedback.

 

[SirSamuel016]

I've got mafia down as:
dego (mafia bum)
val
shino/pom
styl/snehal/mazi

 

[Vali x lucifer]

@SirSamuel016 Also, don't know if i missed the explanation but why say:
"when we go down to 51-100m, things get dangerous
there's something down there that endangers us "

While you are voting to reach that exact depth now ?

 

[GrySun]

I believe if shino was mafia she would’ve gone for another kill target because Holt was basically onto her D1, so killing him would def put her in a tight spot, and if we put aside the Defo vs Sam conundrum, she is the most sus when Holt was killed. That gives me the heebie-jeebies some mafia are setting her up.

This is a common way of thinking but, is it actually true in our games? I dont recall anyone ever getting lynched because the nightkilled player was against them. The benefit outweighs the risks by far imo and this tends to not get punished(and how would it, if all you need to say is "they are setting me up").

 

[SirSamuel016]

@SirSamuel016 Also, don't know if i missed the explanation but why say:
"when we go down to 51-100m, things get dangerous
there's something down there that endangers us "

While you are voting to reach that exact depth now ?

BECAUSE I FUCKING HAVE TO DEFUSE A FUCKING BOMB (DEGO) THERE

--- Double Post Merged, Thursday at 6:05 PM, Original Post Date: Thursday at 6:04 PM ---

HOW MANY TIMES DO I HAVE TO SAY IT AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

 

[Natasha]

One thing to note - he seemed unsure whether he is allowed to even share what his role is. God-tier roleplaying of clueless newbie if he is mafia, so could he be town after all? But if town neither his role nor his current posts are gonna be of help in the coming days.

I didn't consider this. Snail isn't striking me as a town larper to that extent.
@89_Snehal If you chose to lie as a townie about being 4 vanilla please come clean before the end of today. Once night falls, mafia talk again, and I don't know if I'd believe you past that point.

 

[Vali x lucifer]

BECAUSE I FUCKING HAVE TO DEFUSE A FUCKING BOMB (DEGO) THERE

--- Double Post Merged, Thursday at 6:05 PM, Original Post Date: Thursday at 6:04 PM ---

HOW MANY TIMES DO I HAVE TO SAY IT AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

How does this bomb work ? Rules wise, i don't know the mechanic

 

[GrySun]

Why would I bring so much attention to myself after a fumble as maf...

That's just the position you're most comfortable playing at. You're not one to lurk around as mafia.

 

[Natasha]

This is a common way of thinking but, is it actually true in our games? I dont recall anyone ever getting lynched because the nightkilled player was against them. The benefit outweighs the risks by far imo and this tends to not get punished(and how would it, if all you need to say is "they are setting me up").

Marms was 10 feet under it literally happened last game and I was on her team xD

 

[GrySun]

Specifically vanillas is what gets me to trust it.
2 Roles + 2 Vanillas is exactly what I have, and I'm guessing all of mafia are more stacked than that. Intuiting a fake claim which matches real town roles by p#15 is very unlikely.

So do you trust snehal too with his 4 vanillas? Or is he a low hanging fruit.

 

[SirSamuel016]

Yo yo
Duff gooned to a questionable anime chick
She moaned "senpai!" while he fondled his dick
Someone help this man, I think he's a gooner
Can his pattern reveal come sooner?
and while I'm venting, the man didn't read
so he's confused about the warning he should heed
I'm tired, I need to shower and snooze
fuck I could use some booze

 

[GrySun]

That said I too am 2 roles + 2 vanillas so that could help, but it surely wouldnt be fair for mafia to have no vanillas on certain depths. From host pov you wanna incentivise mafias to actively involve themselves in the depth mechanic as it provides opportunity for them to slip and town something to look for. Not sure if I'm seeing any coordinated efforts yet.

 

[Natasha]

So do you trust snehal too with his 4 vanillas? Or is he a low hanging fruit.

Vanilla by itself wasn't the thing that garnered trust. Claiming a standard pattern with vanilla as the passives which match what I know as a townie by post 15 is what grants Erin so much credit.

 

[GrySun]

How do you know most people told the truth ? I am not gonna make up a fishy lie nor do i believe it's the best Town play atm

We don't. But we now can hold them to it. When claiming APPA pattern, when they eventually claim all their roles on day 4 or so, their claim has to match up with the APPA pattern. It specifically is meant to box in mafias into having to claim according to what they were forced to hint early. While you are keeping all avenues open for yourself to claim any combo of roles depending on convenience, with no paper trail to compare with when you claim.

--- Double Post Merged, Thursday at 6:11 PM, Original Post Date: Thursday at 6:10 PM ---

Idk am I making that little sense that a town pomcha and town shino would be picking me as their #1 suspect two days in a row

That's kinda crazy. Even Holt said so, and everyone is agreeing he's a strong player.

Who are your 4 mafia names atm?

 

[SirSamuel016]

We don't. But we now can hold them to it. When claiming APPA pattern, when they eventually claim all their roles on day 4 or so, their claim has to match up with the APPA pattern. It specifically is meant to box in mafias into having to claim according to what they were forced to hint early. While you are keeping all avenues open for yourself to claim any combo of roles depending on convenience, with no paper trail to compare with when you claim.

Yeah, so where's your pattern @Vali x lucifer ?

I'm gonna shower

 

[GrySun]

AR1 - VT - VT - AR1

Vengeful would make more sense on D1 I would think Depends what your active role is I guess.

--- Double Post Merged, Thursday at 6:14 PM, Original Post Date: Thursday at 6:12 PM ---

I've got mafia down as:
dego (mafia bum)
val
shino/pom
styl/snehal/mazi

Dego, Val, shino/pom, style. Could it be?

 

[Natasha]

Why Spy?
I could be Prosti or Det too here with that line of questioning.

I am claiming one of those three right now, yes.
Please tell me if your A role is active/passive and if you got any feedback.

Just so this doesn't get buried

I have claimed one of Spy/Det/Prosti

For like the 5th time I am asking Shino to simply tell me if her Surface role is passive/active and if she got any feedback.

 

[shinobi]

Why Spy?
I could be Prosti or Det too here with that line of questioning.

I am claiming one of those three right now, yes.
Please tell me if your A role is active/passive and if you got any feedback.

Nah det is not concerned with actives/passives.
And Prosti blocks whoever they suspect and assume it worked. Are you saying you blocked me while thinking I'm spy or det? you're supposed to try blocking a kill, not someone you think is a detective/spy producing results lol. Coz this sounds like escort.
Which leaves spy.