American Politics

[z.5]

I guess that is what you get from trying to push two of the least popular leaders in it's history, for the position of President...

It was obvious that this year was going to be bad when Vermin Supreme sounded more sane than one of the leading candidates (and more trustworthy than both).

 

[kkck]

I do exspect clinton's winning chances to drop to 70% before the election date.

You mean in the fivethirtyeight forecast? I guess we will see on monday once new polls are in... I think the hit could be quite harder than that though. Hillary is not a candidate which non democrats liked to begin with. And even then, I do think the bigger damage here might be on whether people show up to vote. I do think clinton will have the better chances of winning however I also think that regardless of the result the race will be tight.

 

[Josef]

 

[TotalEconomist]

You mean in the fivethirtyeight forecast? I guess we will see on monday once new polls are in... I think the hit could be quite harder than that though. Hillary is not a candidate which non democrats liked to begin with. And even then, I do think the bigger damage here might be on whether people show up to vote. I do think clinton will have the better chances of winning however I also think that regardless of the result the race will be tight.

I heard this during the 2012 campaign when the polls aggregates were .3+ Obama by this time and he won in EC and Popular Vote landslide. Trump is behind even further than Romney was with a terrible ground game.

And really, if the email scandal was seriously bad then it would have done her in a long time ago. The Comey news is eye rolling at this point, especially since the reports are A. Not from HRC and B. Supposedly tied into the Anthony Weiner Case

 

[shionoro]

You mean in the fivethirtyeight forecast? I guess we will see on monday once new polls are in... I think the hit could be quite harder than that though. Hillary is not a candidate which non democrats liked to begin with. And even then, I do think the bigger damage here might be on whether people show up to vote. I do think clinton will have the better chances of winning however I also think that regardless of the result the race will be tight.

I don't think the blow will be quite as hard as exspected.

It might lead to more people staying home, but not more people voting trump.
As we saw, there is a bigger die hard clinton faction than a die hard trump faction.

Also it is more than a week until the election.
They still have some time to mitigate that blow.

 

[Onyx Darkmatter]

But who's gonna be his veep then? I agree this is one giant clusterfuck and quite frankly, if despot regimes call you (America) out on this election, you very well deserve it imo. So far, Iran's President (he's moderate btw) is the only one who has directly done so, and he's telling it as soft as you can get. I expect Duterte from the Phillipines to call your political institutions the lowest of the low and that you guys have absolutely lost your moral high horse.

The more of a circus this turns out to be, the more Putin will gleefully place Mother Russia as a new political and moral authority. As such, the first half of the 21st century will be dominated by communism. Democracy has failed.

I guess it all depends on the process. It would be awkward for Kaine to pick a VP when the election is coming up extremely close, but I can see Paul Ryan rising to VP for replacement.
I sure as shit didn't asked for Trump to be the Republican Nominee, nor have I asked for Hillary to be the Democratic Nominee (and it didn't helped that Debbie was biased against Sanders). But the case being is that I'll have to live with this.

Doubtful that Communist Regimes will make its return. Russia is now a Capitalist Nation, which I doubt they'll go back to their bloody system.

 

[Josef]

So the FBI seized the electronic devices of BOTH Weiner and Huma Abedin in the Weiner sex scandal, and while investigated the Huma ones they found stuff related to Hillary (no shit Sherlock).

 

[Newkerzy]

I guess it all depends on the process. It would be awkward for Kaine to pick a VP when the election is coming up extremely close, but I can see Paul Ryan rising to VP for replacement.
I sure as shit didn't asked for Trump to be the Republican Nominee, nor have I asked for Hillary to be the Democratic Nominee (and it didn't helped that Debbie was biased against Sanders). But the case being is that I'll have to live with this.

Doubtful that Communist Regimes will make its return. Russia is now a Capitalist Nation, which I doubt they'll go back to their bloody system.

Paul Ryan? Isn't he supposed to be on the other side of the aisle?? Seriously, only now the feds are saying they have new leads? Just as Drumpf can bring up conspiracies that are out to get him, I think it's fair game to proclaim there's definitely something going on in the FBI against Hillary. The timing is waaayyy too perfect.

 

[kkck]

I heard this during the 2012 campaign when the polls aggregates were .3+ Obama by this time and he won in EC and Popular Vote landslide. Trump is behind even further than Romney was with a terrible ground game.

And really, if the email scandal was seriously bad then it would have done her in a long time ago. The Comey news is eye rolling at this point, especially since the reports are A. Not from HRC and B. Supposedly tied into the Anthony Weiner Case

Well, but this goes beyond the weiner case if the implication is that her investigation was "reopened". They are blatantly saying that they are going to continue the investigation that they said no one would prosecute. I agree in that this is eye rolling (and tedious) at this point considering how extraordinary whatever they find on hillary has to be to make prosecution reasonable.

--- Double Post Merged, Oct 28, 2016, Original Post Date: Oct 28, 2016 ---

I don't think the blow will be quite as hard as exspected.

It might lead to more people staying home, but not more people voting trump.
As we saw, there is a bigger die hard clinton faction than a die hard trump faction.

Also it is more than a week until the election.
They still have some time to mitigate that blow.

Well, but more people staying home is a huge issue. If anything it's the biggest issue. It makes absolutely no sense for someone who was planning to vote hillary to vote trump because of the emails however people staying home can swing the election regardless of how large hillary's lead is.

 

[z.5]

Well, but more people staying home is a huge issue. If anything it's the biggest issue. It makes absolutely no sense for someone who was planning to vote hillary to vote trump because of the emails however people staying home can swing the election regardless of how large hillary's lead is.

Only if the only people who stay at home are Hillary voters.

I find it just as likely that Republican voters would feel equally demoralized as Democratic voters - and therefore not feel the urge to get out and waste their time voting on a candidate they have no interest in...

 

[Onyx Darkmatter]

Paul Ryan? Isn't he supposed to be on the other side of the aisle?? Seriously, only now the feds are saying they have new leads? Just as Drumpf can bring up conspiracies that are out to get him, I think it's fair game to proclaim there's definitely something going on in the FBI against Hillary. The timing is waaayyy too perfect.

Yes, but I'm referring to the 25th Amendment. If a President passes away or resigns, the President gets replaced with the VP and the VP gets replaced by the Speaker of the House (which is currently Paul Ryan).
As for the FBI, I do have to agree that the timing is just a perfect opportunity for someone like Trump to win the presidency (then again, it didn't helped that the Democrats screwed the voters).

 

[Newkerzy]

Well, that shoud be interesting. It's pretty clear Ryan has been desperately trying to save (or at least, as much as he can at the minimum) his career, if he plays his cards right, being VP is not a bad deal for him.

 

[kkck]

Only if the only people who stay at home are Hillary voters.

I find it equally likely that Republican voters would feel equally demoralized as Democratic voters - and therefore not feel the urge to get out and waste their time voting on a candidate they have no interest in...

Also plausible but I am not sure the case for that happening is the same as for it happening to hillary. Republicans are also going with the whole "that candidate is worst than ours". In conservative circles hillary is seen worst than satan (more literally than I am comfortable with). And while trump's base isn't necessarily the most numerous, it is certainly more loyal than hillary's base. I guess we will know how big the blow is to hillary due monday or tuesday at the most.

 

[TotalEconomist]

Also plausible but I am not sure the case for that happening is the same as for it happening to hillary. Republicans are also going with the whole "that candidate is worst than ours". In conservative circles hillary is seen worst than satan (more literally than I am comfortable with). And while trump's base isn't necessarily the most numerous, it is certainly more loyal than hillary's base. I guess we will know how big the blow is to hillary due monday or tuesday at the most.

My guess is probably a point nationally for a day or so and maybe a tightening in one or two states.

At this point, it looks like Comey will get more of the blame and it won't have real effect on the election.

Burnout is a real thing and the emails ran its course.

 

[kkck]

My guess is probably a point nationally for a day or so and maybe a tightening in one or two states.

At this point, it looks like Comey will get more of the blame and it won't have real effect on the election.

Burnout is a real thing and the emails ran its course.

I guess that is plausible that the damage is small and people are just burned out. However at least going by what I know about Comey he is the sort of guy that should be taken seriously. At least until the email investigation the guy was known virtually by everyone for his integrity and principles. I read about how he supposedly stood up to bush regarding doing some unconstitutional stuff. Regarding the emails his explanation as to why he didn't indite checked out. Obama trusted him the FBI even if ideologically they were different. Now that it was politically convenient republicans went out of their way to trash him (because he was "supposed" to recommend inditing hillary).

Now, that doesn't mean that hillary is necessarily guilty of anything. But going by that does suggest that whatever the FBI is going to investigate at least warrants the investigation. Now, it does seem odd that he would simply announce the investigation at all and if he does that he would do so while providing so little details. But in turn that he would fall into this bipartisan chicanery at this point is also odd. So even if burnout is a real thing it is not necessarily a reasonable response to the whole thing.

 

[shionoro]

The reason why trump gained in polls was not hillary losing voters.
It was Trump gaining parts of Johnson's voters.

we will see how the new email scandal will turn out, but as of now, I agree that there is burnout.

It would be a masterplan if someone knew he could prove clinton committed a crime all along and waited with that information until now so the dems are in chaos.

In that situation, would tim kaine take over?

 

[M3J]

I heard this during the 2012 campaign when the polls aggregates were .3+ Obama by this time and he won in EC and Popular Vote landslide. Trump is behind even further than Romney was with a terrible ground game.

And really, if the email scandal was seriously bad then it would have done her in a long time ago. The Comey news is eye rolling at this point, especially since the reports are A. Not from HRC and B. Supposedly tied into the Anthony Weiner Case

It hurt her a lot, but again, Trump being seen as the worse choice and the FBI acquitting her is why she still has a chance. Or had. I'm pretty sure if she does lose, then this will be the one of the nails in the coffin. I mean, while both have scandals out, Hillary's is consistently mentioned with the truth being fudged that I wouldn't be shocked if people who was going to vote for Hillary decided against it.

I don't think the blow will be quite as hard as exspected.

It might lead to more people staying home, but not more people voting trump.
As we saw, there is a bigger die hard clinton faction than a die hard trump faction.

Also it is more than a week until the election.
They still have some time to mitigate that blow.

Feels like you're deluded when it comes to Hillary. It wouldn't necessarily lead to more people staying home, it results in them switching sides because they'll think a criminal shouldn't become a president when she keeps committing treason, and they likely are aware she's in the lead. I mean, you have Bernie supporters who are voting for Trump because they're pissed off at the democrats and Hillary for what happened to Bernie. I don't think a lot of people realize just how negatively Hillary is seen, just so happens for many people Trump is way worse because of his bullshit.

How is there a bigger die hard Clinton faction than Trump faction? Where did you get that?

Only if the only people who stay at home are Hillary voters.

I find it just as likely that Republican voters would feel equally demoralized as Democratic voters - and therefore not feel the urge to get out and waste their time voting on a candidate they have no interest in...

Disagreed. Enough republican voters would vote for Trump simply because it means a republican will be in office, which is more desirable than a democrat/another Obama, especially a criminal like Hillary. I mean, our republican politicians say a lot about the party in general - they'd rather vote for a horrible choice in Trump just to have a republican president than vote for a less horrible choice in Hillary who's more competent.

 

[TotalEconomist]

@M3J The emails have been ongoing issue for years that amounted to nothing politically in the long run, since she's lead the race the whole way. Unless Comey can provide something that he can recommend prosecution on, it's simply a boy crying wolf.

But hey, if there is a serious swing in the projection models then I will believe you.

 

[shionoro]

Feels like you're deluded when it comes to Hillary. It wouldn't necessarily lead to more people staying home, it results in them switching sides because they'll think a criminal shouldn't become a president when she keeps committing treason, and they likely are aware she's in the lead. I mean, you have Bernie supporters who are voting for Trump because they're pissed off at the democrats and Hillary for what happened to Bernie. I don't think a lot of people realize just how negatively Hillary is seen, just so happens for many people Trump is way worse because of his bullshit.

How is there a bigger die hard Clinton faction than Trump faction? Where did you get that?

I am not deluded, i am quite realistic here.
Clinton's email affair is a dead horse by now for people who decided to vote for her.
The only thing known by now is that there 'is an investigation about more emails'. Someone who gave her the benefit of the doubt before won't switch sides due to that, because someone who is actually interested will see that trump pulled criminal shit too.
So you don't switch sides from one criminal to a bigger criminal if that is what interests you.

Clinton is not seen as negatively as people make it out to be.
We have data about the fact that the percentage of people who vote FOR hillary and not AGAINST trump is inside the average range of any democratic nominee (for the nominee, not against the other candidate).

And honestly? Not wanting hillary for the email affair (even if it was all true) but electing the candidate who all too happily cheers on russia if they interfere in the US election is definitely not a person who cares a lot about treason.

 

[kkck]

Ok, here is the letter comey wrote regarding the investigation:

Spoiler: letter

And reading that all I can say is.... what? As I mentioned earlier, hillary was investigated for gross negligence regarding the handling of classified information. To prosecute her on such a charge they would have to prove beyond reasonable doubt that hillary knowingly and intentionally mishandled classified information. Which would for the most part have to be a literal admission of guilt on hillary's part or evidence that couldn't be brushed away by hillary claiming ignorance and there being a 0.000001% chance that that might be the case. However the letter comey sent merely alludes to the possibility that they have found more emails that could have been classified. Assuming comey is being serious here then even if they find this it would make absolutely no difference in regards to whether hillary can be charged with something. The difference would be that there would simply be more classified information over which she would have been extremely careless......Unless they conveniently find emails in which hillary quite literally admits her guilt but I just don't see that as being plausible.