Mag Talk Weekly Shonen Jump [2019] - Discussion and TOC Talk

[Leoat12]

Actually, Beast Children seems to have primed itself already for cancellation, which is kinda amusing TBH.

We will see... We don't know how much Shueisha is getting to keep it there.

 

[savethecat]

A series will only last as long as it is commercially solid.

HQ has declined considerably but it has lasted because even with the decline, it has solid sales.
I don't see BC lasting more than 2 years tbh. It really depends on whether or not its sales are consistent or if it'll start to decline. If it starts to decline (small or big), its time will be limited.
Same applies to MHA but MHA has enough sales to be around for 3 years at least.

I feel like you guys are mainly basing this on some of the bigger series lasting really long.

Bleach lasted a long time despite a sales drop, and we found out that it only ended due to Tite Kubo’s health.

And then their are some series that like Kochikame and Gintama that had consistent sales, but weren’t MEGA sellers(at least not in their later years), and I’m pretty sure both of those would still be in the magazine if the mangaka wanted them to.

As long as MHA and Black Clover keep their current sales, or don’t drop to the degree that they’re flopping, I feel like they’ll run as long as the mangaka wants them, even if that means moving to another magazine in the later years. If the series is still profitable, and still bringing fans to the magazine, Shuiesha/Jump have no reason to can it if the mangaka still want to keep making it.

 

[Leoat12]

In short the Jump magazine works this way: you struggle to stay in the magazine during the first 1~2 years, after that you struggle to end the series when you want to.

 

[Shinuki no Reborn]

So Black Clover will not even have more than 100 chapters from now? kkkkk the manga is going strong in both rankings and sales, it have a anime with no signs of ending, it's one of the most popular shounen series around the world at the moment and Shonen Jump isn't even that same magazine like some years ago, unless it really drop in popularity like Souma, Jump has zero reasons to not let Tabata do whatever he wants, let alone Horikoshi.

 

[Rain Spectre]

A series will only last as long as it is commercially solid.

HQ has declined considerably but it has lasted because even with the decline, it has solid sales.
I don't see BC lasting more than 2 years tbh. It really depends on whether or not its sales are consistent or if it'll start to decline. If it starts to decline (small or big), its time will be limited.
Same applies to MHA but MHA has enough sales to be around for 3 years at least.

I feel like you guys are mainly basing this on some of the bigger series lasting really long.

Bleach lasted a long time despite a sales drop, and we found out that it only ended due to Tite Kubo’s health.

And then their are some series that like Kochikame and Gintama that had consistent sales, but weren’t MEGA sellers(at least not in their later years), and I’m pretty both of those would still be in the magazine if the mangaka wanted them to.

As long as MHA and Black Clover keep their current sales, or don’t drop to the degree that they’re flopping, I feel like they’ll run as long as the mangaka wants them, even if that means moving to another magazine in the later years. If the series is still profitable, and still bringing fans to the magazine, Shuiesha/Jump have no reason to can it if the mangaka still want to keep making it.

I think both of you are right in a way, because the simple fact is that there are numerous factors built around how the roster is handled. Remember, Jump's editorial isn't some kind of AI that makes decisions based on a hard algorithm, it's a team of people making decisions every two months or so on what is going to be running in the magazine.

 

[Halloween]

I don't see BC lasting more than 2 years tbh.

 

[Leoat12]

Adventure mangas like Black Clover can last forever, generally, unless the author impose some limitation in the story like The Promised Neverland, which is certain, it will not last more than a year from now.

 

[101nemesis]

I feel like you guys are mainly basing this on some of the bigger series lasting really long.

Bleach lasted a long time despite a sales drop, and we found out that it only ended due to Tite Kubo’s health.

And then their are some series that like Kochikame and Gintama that had consistent sales, but weren’t MEGA sellers(at least not in their later years), and I’m pretty sure both of those would still be in the magazine if the mangaka wanted them to.

As long as MHA and Black Clover keep their current sales, or don’t drop to the degree that they’re flopping, I feel like they’ll run as long as the mangaka wants them, even if that means moving to another magazine in the later years. If the series is still profitable, and still bringing fans to the magazine, Shuiesha/Jump have no reason to can it if the mangaka still want to keep making it.

Are we really bringing in Kochikame? Kochikame was the front runner for WSJ for almost 3 decades. It was as important as One Piece. Kochikame WAS WSJ's history. It's why it's one of only two series to ever get a cover for its ending in WSJ.

Gintama was a comedy. It sold 55 million volumes while it was majorly known for its comedy. It's volume sales were remarkable for a comedy. And that's besides the remarkably successful media franchise it had.

Bleach sold 120 million worldwide, had an anime that ran for 366 episodes, 4 anime movies, numerous games, merchandise etc. etc. etc. When Bleach entered it's final arc in 2012, its volumes sold 670k ish. There was no reason for WSJ to make it rush to a finish. It was one of their most significant names and they showed the last arc the love especially when they gave the last arc's first chapter a cover and a 5 page extended color. Even the last volume of Bleach sold between 450-500k (Or more. I'm too lazy to look).

Now lets look at Toriko.
Toriko highest print number was 580k at its peak (or somewhere around that number) and it ended within two years of its anime ending. Why? WSJ barely had a series aside from MHA and a new BC with a declining HQ. There was no reason for WSJ to cancel a series that was still selling around 250-300k (a number BC sells at its peak).

Beelzebub sold 150k to 200k towards its end from a 300k-350k peak (similar to BC levels) and was rushed to end.

I'm not hating on BC. I'm simply stating that we have a well documented history of WSJ cancelling major series that were past their prime and had declined in sales. It's why I said, if BC's sales start to decline, it wouldn't last more than 2 years. It's not a wrong assumption at all. Given WSJ's history, it's the right one to make.
You can keep saying it's "not the same WSJ right now" but that would just be a baseless statement. WSJ has always been strict and harsh when it comes to cancelling series even with decent sales. There won't be exceptions. If there has to be an exception for this generation, it will be MHA but definitely won't be BC.

 

[Tamil]

Those will be there next season, and it is not certain that there will be next year. However, as I have said before, the boosts are not usually repeated.

His moment of glory Kimetsu has already had it, I don't think he will be tall.

Whether it's next year or not; the sales have a good chance at getting another boost. Why? Demon Train arc is a beloved arc in the fandom, take it from someone who had been reading the manga weekly during the time of Demon Train arc (& much before that). I saw the popularity of Rengoku and how much the fujo fanbase adores him. Never underestimate the fujo push, it will be at its peak with the Demon Train arc.

I dont expect the boost to be as big as season 1 but I think it's very possible to get another boost with Demon Train arc.

 

[Rain Spectre]

Are we really bringing in Kochikame? Kochikame was the front runner for WSJ for almost 3 decades. It was as important as One Piece. Kochikame WAS WSJ's history. It's why it's one of only two series to ever get a cover for its ending in WSJ.

Gintama was a comedy. It sold 55 million volumes while it was majorly known for its comedy. It's volume sales were remarkable for a comedy. And that's besides the remarkably successful media franchise it had.

Bleach sold 120 million worldwide, had an anime that ran for 366 episodes, 4 anime movies, numerous games, merchandise etc. etc. etc. When Bleach entered it's final arc in 2012, its volumes sold 670k ish. There was no reason for WSJ to make it rush to a finish. It was one of their most significant names and they showed the last arc the love especially when they gave the last arc's first chapter a cover and a 5 page extended color. Even the last volume of Bleach sold between 450-500k (Or more. I'm too lazy to look).

Now lets look at Toriko.
Toriko highest print number was 580k at its peak (or somewhere around that number) and it ended within two years of its anime ending. Why? WSJ barely had a series aside from MHA and a new BC with a declining HQ. There was no reason for WSJ to cancel a series that was still selling around 250-300k (a number BC sells at its peak).

Beelzebub sold 150k to 200k towards its end from a 300k-350k peak (similar to BC levels) and was rushed to end.

I'm not hating on BC. I'm simply stating that we have a well documented history of WSJ cancelling major series that were past their prime and had declined in sales. It's why I said, if BC's sales start to decline, it wouldn't last more than 2 years. It's not a wrong assumption at all. Given WSJ's history, it's the right one to make.
You can keep saying it's "not the same WSJ right now" but that would just be a baseless statement. WSJ has always been strict and harsh when it comes to cancelling series even with decent sales. There won't be exceptions. If there has to be an exception for this generation, it will be MHA but definitely won't be BC.

I ask you, why are you acting like HQ has "declined", when any sales drop is due to digital and, despite having no anime for a few years now, it's still been neck to neck with MHA for the most popular modern title? (OP is discounted for obvious reasons)

Also, profitability is a major motivator for canceling series, not raw sales. Toriko was a series Shueisha tried to basically bury after the anime/movie/other stuff all bombed. It being rushed is systemic of its inability to maintain a merit to Jump's business as an IP, plain and simple. Black Clover meanwhile has an anime which continues to do decently well, a decent amount of merch and is treated as something of a "No 2" to MHA in Jump's roster. There is no reason currently to cancel it.

 

[Heiji]

Tokyo Shinobi Squad recommanded by NIGHTOW Yasuhiro (Trigun, Kekkai Sensen)

 

[Rain Spectre]

New official Act-Age promo image. The whole thing is part of a dummy site used to "promote" the in-universe play that the current arc is about.

舞台「羅刹女」公式サイト

奇跡のダブルキャスト舞台がついに開演。アクタージュJC第12巻７月３日(金)発売。

www.shonenjump.com

 

[savethecat]

Are we really bringing in Kochikame? Kochikame was the front runner for WSJ for almost 3 decades. It was as important as One Piece. Kochikame WAS WSJ's history. It's why it's one of only two series to ever get a cover for its ending in WSJ.

Gintama was a comedy. It sold 55 million volumes while it was majorly known for its comedy. It's volume sales were remarkable for a comedy. And that's besides the remarkably successful media franchise it had.

Bleach sold 120 million worldwide, had an anime that ran for 366 episodes, 4 anime movies, numerous games, merchandise etc. etc. etc. When Bleach entered it's final arc in 2012, its volumes sold 670k ish. There was no reason for WSJ to make it rush to a finish. It was one of their most significant names and they showed the last arc the love especially when they gave the last arc's first chapter a cover and a 5 page extended color. Even the last volume of Bleach sold between 450-500k (Or more. I'm too lazy to look).

Now lets look at Toriko.
Toriko highest print number was 580k at its peak (or somewhere around that number) and it ended within two years of its anime ending. Why? WSJ barely had a series aside from MHA and a new BC with a declining HQ. There was no reason for WSJ to cancel a series that was still selling around 250-300k (a number BC sells at its peak).

Beelzebub sold 150k to 200k towards its end from a 300k-350k peak (similar to BC levels) and was rushed to end.

I'm not hating on BC. I'm simply stating that we have a well documented history of WSJ cancelling major series that were past their prime and had declined in sales. It's why I said, if BC's sales start to decline, it wouldn't last more than 2 years. It's not a wrong assumption at all. Given WSJ's history, it's the right one to make.
You can keep saying it's "not the same WSJ right now" but that would just be a baseless statement. WSJ has always been strict and harsh when it comes to cancelling series even with decent sales. There won't be exceptions. If there has to be an exception for this generation, it will be MHA but definitely won't be BC.

By “not the same anymore” I mainly talking about the climate of manga sales. It’s highly unlikely Jump is going to get another 100Mil+ seller, and they’re not going to easily come across another 50Mil+ series either. The manga industry doesn’t have that many series pulling 1Mil-2Mil per volume like Jump has in the 90s and 2000s. The magazine isn’t selling as much as it did in the 90s and 2000s. And all of the big sellers from that time period is over outside of One Piece.

It has nothing to do with quality, or the business model of the magazine changing. Music, and Comics/Manga took a hit moving into the digital age.

NOW, MHA averaging 800K per volume is likely not far below the peak a new age manga can pull.

If nowadays Jump’s biggest sellers outside of OP and HxH are averaging around 800K-1Mil per volumes, than i don’t see why they be in a rush to give those series a ceiling, or kick the 400K per Volume series out if they’re holding consistent numbers

 

[Caiops]

I can see Black Clover reaching 40-45 volumes, just like Toriko.

 

[Avok]

If it goes on for more than 35 I would be surprised.

 

[Mankichi Togawa]

Requoting this for current argument sake.

1. Kochikame - 200 volumes
2. One Piece - 94 volumes for now
3. JoJo - 80 volumes considering his Jump period (from Phantom Blood to Stone Ocean)
4. Gintama - 78 volumes
5. Bleach - 74 volumes
6. Naruto - 72 volumes
7. Toriko- 43 volumes
8. Dragon Ball, Rokudenashi Blues, Prince of Tennis, Katekyo HItman Reborn: 42 volumes
9. Haikyuu: 39 volumes for now
10. Yu-gi-Oh: 38 volumes
11. Capitan Tsubasa (first series), Dragon Quest no Daiboken, Eyeshield 21 - 37 volumes
12. Kinnikuman (original run), HunterxHunter (for now) - 36 volumes
13. City Hunter, Shokugeki no Soma - 35 volumes

Other important titles length:
-Fist of North Star - 27 volumes
-Saint Seiya - 28 volumes
-Sakigake Otokojuku - 34 volumes
-Video Girl Ai, I's - 15 volumes
-Slam Dunk - 31 volumes
-Yu Yu Hakusho - 19 volumes
-BOY - 33 volumes
-NuBe - 31 volumes
-Kenshin - 29 volumes
-Sexy Commando - 7 volumes
-Hoshi Engi - 23 volumes
-Kuroko no Basket - 30 volumes
-Death Note - 12 volumes
-Assasination Classrom - 21 volumes
-Nisekoi - 25 volumes
-Rookies - 24 volumes
-Sket Dance - 32 volumes

 

[NeeNeen]

Stone is a tad tricky, but I don't see see it going that much longer given its current pacing. I'd imagine by the end of the publication year the current arc will be done, and after that there's relatively little left to do beyond moving into a final arc. How long the final arc + epilogue would exactly be is again speculative, but the series pacing is such that I hardly imagine it being that long.

I dunno. It's possible that they will solve the mystery and end the series fairly soon. But, given that the big bad is about as well-defined as the One Piece right now and the final goal is to bring back all of humanity, I can also see them traveling the world looking for clues and creating new inventions along the way for a long time.

Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if the series ended with humans taking to space again.

For reference, I wouldn't be surprised if the roster come the latter half of 2020 looks like this:

-One Piece
-Haikyu
-My Hero Academia
-Black Clover
-Act-Age
-Jujutsu Kaisen
-Chainsaw Man
-Samurai 8
-Mission: Yozakura Family
-New Series from Masaoki Shindo
-Fantasies by Ohsuga Gen
-New Romance Manga by Tsunehiro Date
-Sci-Fi series from Takamasa Moue
-New series from Random Author
-Fodder
-Fodder
-Fodder
-Fodder
-Fodder
-Gag Manga for the Kids.

Obviously a lot of this is speculative (and Yozakura is borderline indulgence on my part), but that's my take on things.

That would be 11 new series in less than a year.

Is that normal for WSJ? How many new series are usually introduced?

There’s literally no way Dr.Stone could wrap up in 5 chapters lol.

Sure it could. One chapter to catch the weapon, one chapter to figure out how it works and where it came from, one chapter to hear the history behind it (assuming someone on the island knows it or they find it written down somewhere), one chapter to talk about how such a thing should never happen again, and then an epilogue where we see them mass-producing the revival fluid and reviving people left and right.

I don't expect them to do this, but they totally could.

 

[Mankichi Togawa]

Issue 42 cover: My Hero Academia

Thanks to Nav for the info

 

[Shinuki no Reborn]

Kinda early to give a cover (probably for season 4 starting) but okay, wonder if they will give a new one for Bokuben too...

Edit: Jujutsu crying a corner with only one lol

 

[Franz]

Requoting this for current argument sake.



Other important titles length:
-Fist of North Star - 27 volumes
-Saint Seiya - 28 volumes
-Sakigake Otokojuku - 34 volumes
-Video Girl Ai, I's - 15 volumes
-Slam Dunk - 31 volumes
-Yu Yu Hakusho - 19 volumes
-BOY - 33 volumes
-NuBe - 31 volumes
-Kenshin - 29 volumes
-Sexy Commando - 7 volumes
-Hoshi Engi - 23 volumes
-Kuroko no Basket - 30 volumes
-Death Note - 12 volumes
-Assasination Classrom - 21 volumes
-Nisekoi - 25 volumes
-Rookies - 24 volumes
-Sket Dance - 32 volumes

This is proof that a successful manga does not necessarily have to last dozens and dozens of volumes ....

The problem is that because of manga like One Piece or Naruto now the fandom is convinced that if a manga doesn't exceed 40 volumes it's a flop.