Long post incoming... Because sometimes I just get excited while writing or something lol
So I just saw
this article on ANN which says, "
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Is 3rd Manga to Sell Over 1 Million Copies of 1 Volume in 1st Week".
And it obviously means "In the history of Oricon charts" or something, because obviously other titles like Dragon Ball or Slam Dunk must have sold 1 mill first week too...
And then I entered the messageboard to see if you guys had discussed it... and then I saw
@MangAniMY's chart... Right now Kimetsu has 21'000,000 sold with 41 weeks left, there's some a real chance it might beat One Piece's numbers from 2011! Or do you think it will run out of gas before reaching OP's highest numbers?
It currently has 24 chapters yet to be collected into tankobon (So that's 3 more volumes minimum)
Heck.. If Shueisha wants to they could end up releasing like 6 volumes total in this fiscal year, volume 18 was released December 4th just some days after Oricon chart's last day IIRC (It was in late November IIRC), volume 19 on February, so if they continue this pattern they could release the volumes:
Vol 18 was released on December 2019.
Vol 19 Feb 2020. (2 month gap)
Vol 20 April 2020
Vol 21 June 2020
Vol 22 August 2020 (This is where the manga chapters are currently at probably, chp 193 )
Vol 23 October 2020
That's six volumes in a fiscal year and heck if they want to be extra sneaky or really try to dethrone One Piece's record Shueisha could release Vol 24 in November 2020 (Assuming Kimetsu doesnt' end before of course)... But that's unheard of, right? Like Shueisha wouldn't release a seventh volume of KnY just a month after its prior volume release? But they have done that, like release volumes month to month? I mean I can see them doing it IF they want to battle One Piece's record...
I'm gonna just assume they release up to volume 23 of the series (So that's an extra four more volume sales for this fiscal year), and I'm gonna assume each of those volumes ends up selling around.. Say.. 2.5 million copies, making it 10 million in those 4 volumes.
So if KnY right now on February 14th has sold 21'000,000 and sells 10 million.. That's 31 million, One Piece 2011's record is 37'996,373 copies sold...
It's a scary thought that One Piece's record can be broken, but I think everything I listed here could very, very well happen.. In fact it's likely to happen
Each volume of KnY has sold around 1.8 million, though that info is a week old and with Kimetsu sales... A week old must mean that at least each volume sold like 100k so I'd guess so far every volume from 1-18 has sold around 1.9 mill
Also some volumes sold around 130k-150k last week but this week (Feb 3rd-9th) Oricon numbers are around 90k for pretty much every volume of the series ranked in Oricon, that's a decline, expected obviously.. BUT there are more reprints announced for KnY volumes...
2/20 Kimetsu no Yaiba Volume 19
2/26 Kimetsu no Yaiba Volumes 15-18
2/27 Kimetsu no Yaiba Volumes 1-14
So that must mean that the decline is not because of demand finally being satisfied but due to the contrary, that there are not enough volumes for people that want them (and thus the coming reprints in late February)...
BIG TL,DR for anyone that didn't read all this and just wants to comment without having to necessarily having read everything I previously wrote:
Kimetsu no Yaiba currently has sold 21 million, One Piece's record sales were 38 million back in 2011.
Do you think Kimetsu will break One Piece's historical record? (the highest record Oricon has ranked.. and maybe the highest record ever? Though we will probably never know)
Kimetsu has probably 4 more volumes coming this fiscal year, so if they sell 10 million in those four volumes that makes it 31 million total sales for KnY, Kimetsu would "just" need an extra 7 million which it may very well sell thru backlog...
As of now each volume of KnY has sold approximately 1.9 million give or take, so for the 19 volumes to sell that extra 7 million needed to dethrone One Piece (In this particular example, that is)... Each of those extra 19 volumes would need to sell 368,421 more per volume.
So final TL,DR if you really don't wanna read anything:
according to my calculations if each volume of Kimetsu no Yaiba ends up selling around 2.2-2.3 million copies it will dethrone One Piece's record, do you think that will happen?
Also, am I using Oricon correctly??
I used this website:
https://www.oricon.co.jp/rank/obc/w/2020-02-17/p/2/ But I always see other better looking graphs and numbers getting posted so maybe there' something I'm missing in the Oricon website??