Mag Talk Weekly Shonen Jump [2020] - Discussion and ToC Talk

Shinuki no Reborn

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MANGAHELPERS POLL ISSUE #12 (2020)


The poll for the issue #12 is open! Vote for your favorite 5 chapters of this week's Shonen Jump HERE

Obs: Voting will be open until late Saturday
 
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revo68

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#13
One Piece (Cover & LCP)
Koisuru One Piece (9p) by Ihara Daiki
Kimetsu no Yaiba
The Promised Neverland
Haikyuu!!
Dr. STONE
We Never Learn
Chainsaw Man (CP)
Undead Unluck
Black Clover
Mitama Security (CP/2 Chapters)
The Witch's Guardian
Jujutsu Kaisen
MASHLE
Yozakura-san Chi no Daisakusen (CP)
AGRAVITY BOYS
act-age
Samurai 8 Hachimaruden
Yuuna and the Haunted Hotsprings
ZIPMAN!!

#14
Cover & LCP: Dr. STONE
CP: Chainsaw Man; The Promised Neverland
Absent: Haikyuu!!



Dr. Stone Popularity Poll Commences
 
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Krono

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I modified a post I found on a Japanese board to give an idea of some upcoming milestones:

Issue #15 Bokuben ch150(completes v17), TPN ch 170(completes v19)
Issue #16 Undead Unluck ch9, Samurai 8 ch 42 (completes v5)
Issue #17 Marshle ch9, Yuragi ch200
Issue #18 Guardian of the Witch ch9, Zipman ch16(completes v2) Kimetsu ch200
Issue #19 Agravity Boys ch16(completes v2)
Issue #20
Issue #21
Issue #22-23 Yuragi ch205(completes v23)
Issue #24 Kimetsu ch205(completes v23), Undead Unluck ch16(completes v2)
Issue #25 TPN ch179(completes v20), Marshle ch16(completes v2)
Issue #26 Samurai 8 ch51(completes v6), GotW ch16(completes v2)

Series usually end when a volume is filled. So by issue #19 we should know if Bokuben somehow manages to continue beyond volume 17, if TPN and S8 are going on for another volume, if Zipman and Agravity Boys are getting quickly axed or surviving to a third volume, have a solid idea of the initial reception of the three newest sereis, and make some educated guesses as to whether Kimetsu and Yuragi are ending with 23 volumes or continuing onward. After that, it'll be the Golden Week double issue when things would potentially start happening again.
 

Thehoennhippo

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At the rate Bokuben has been going, I think volume 17 is probably it. think TPN will go at least another volume and end at 20.
 

Tamil

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How do you know this for certain?

I'm not downplaying KnY's source material. Obviously people are very invested in the series post-anime.

But can you honestly say Toriko wouldn't be a million seller if it had a perfect adaptation? Toriko didn't have the character writing that KnY has (well, overall) and KnY has it beat it terms of character designs, but I feel Toriko is generally better in other areas.
As a Toriko fan, the idea of the series being a million copy seller if it had a good adaptation seems unlikely tbh. I would say Toriko is a better series (in the sense that if offers more than KnY) but Toriko is also so out there and it feels like a niche with its Fist of the north star inspired artstyle. Maybe if the series came out in the 80s then yeah maybe.

Toriko could've done better if it had a better adaptation but I dont think itd be that large of a difference.

Toriko might be an exception given how even despite being aimed at the wrong demographic, it grew to 550k+ and the manga was well received throughout.
I wouldn't say maybe it would be a million seller 100% because I feel there should be a lot of factors that come into play for a series to reach that but it definitely would've done way better than it did.
Toriko didnt even reach 500k...It was close, like peaking at 480k or something.
 
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101nemesis

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Toriko didnt even reach 500k...It was close, like peaking at 480k or something.
Its first print peak was 550k something, which is what I meant.
 

Rain Spectre

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I def think a lot of the desire with Toriko by Shueisha was wanting to recreate what One Piece did and capture that same audience Dragon Ball did. The issue is that, well, Dragon Ball was over for more than 12 years at that point verses One Piece having just two, and the audience of manga had shifted a lot in that time. It's pretty telling IMO that far more battle manga seem to use Naruto and Bleach as inspirations over OP.
 

Tamil

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Oooo boi, this argument.

Look, lemme put it like this, One Piece's story and cast might be big, but you seem to mistake that for depth. Because, like Toriko, what One Piece has in scale it loses in terms of everything else, namely emotional connectivity and throughline. OP's cast have very little in the way of arcs or depths at this point, it's all large moving pieces.

I'm doing an essay elaborating on this so I won't go into too much depth (might share it here), but I think the simplest explanation for Kimetsu's rise is simply that people cannect to the characters. Tanjiro and his allies have a strong, fleshed and diverse set of personalities with backstories and emotional resonance that each make themselves easy to get attached . It's the same deal with MHA, BC, JJK and plenty of the other series which are popular today, they're all heavily slanted to the characters because that's what readers want.
LMAOOO

As people have mentioned already, the backstories in OP have much more depth than those in Kimetsu. If people weren't attached to OP characters as you say then the series wont be no where near as long as it is today. Its that simple.

Its painfully obvious at this point but you're reaching so hard to find flaws of OP simply because you have issues with a minority of the OP fanbase. A quick look at your twitter account says it all. Im going to go on a whim and say that one of the big reasons why you're happy of Kimetsu's success because you can rub it in to OP's fans. You should stop all of this its embarrassing...or at the very least keep this on your twitter & not here.

Like, there is a pretty obvious reason why Jump's current readership make up the minority of One Piece's.
Yeah man because the idea of OP being an ongoing series with 90+ volumes (& an ongoing anime with 900+ episodes) doesn't sound like an obvious reason...
 

Koni

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I def think a lot of the desire with Toriko by Shueisha was wanting to recreate what One Piece did and capture that same audience Dragon Ball did. The issue is that, well, Dragon Ball was over for more than 12 years at that point verses One Piece having just two, and the audience of manga had shifted a lot in that time. It's pretty telling IMO that far more battle manga seem to use Naruto and Bleach as inspirations over OP.
To add some fuel to your Toriko claim, Shueisha pretty blatantly tried to replace Bleach with Toriko as one of the magazine's "Big Three", as we call it, from about 2010 onwards.

I wonder about this one because personally I think it might just be the fact that some of Jump's more successful battle manga are more based off of Naruto and Bleach because Naruto and Bleach ended, so Jump was more or less looking for battle manga similar to those to fill the void. One Piece is still running and is still selling a hell of a lot even after all this time, so Jump (or other Shueisha magazines) doesn't see a need to publish something like One Piece when they have, well, One Piece.
 

Reading Somethin'

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Shueisha pretty blatantly tried to replace Bleach with Toriko as one of the magazine's "Big Three", as we call it, from about 2010 onwards.

I wonder about this one because personally I think it might just be the fact that some of Jump's more successful battle manga are more based off of Naruto and Bleach because Naruto and Bleach ended, so Jump was more or less looking for battle manga similar to those to fill the void. One Piece is still running and is still selling a hell of a lot even after all this time, so Jump (or other Shueisha magazines) doesn't see a need to publish something like One Piece when they have, well, One Piece.
The big 3 is a western term. The japanese refer to them as the main 3 pillars of the 2000's. Toriko was never a forced replacement for Bleach. Pillars come and go.
Bleach took HxH's place around the mid 2000's because hiatus makes the series less relevant to the magazine. Toriko took Bleach's place because Bleach sales were declining, but toriko was rising.

There were pillars before the "big 3" and there will be more pillars as series come and go.

Which successful battle manga are you two talking about though? The only battle manga that were hugely influenced by naruto are Mha and black clover, also hugely influenced by One Piece. I don't see how Naruto is more influential to battle manga than One Piece. I do see Bleach having a lot of influence though, I'll give you that.
 

101nemesis

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This must be a thing of this forum. To constantly repeat the same conversations every year.
Anyway, I'm not gonna get into this Toriko / Bleach / Big 3 thing again. Just go back to last year's forum and read the comments there.

Moving on, how does JK's current sales compare to something like pre-anime TPN and pre-anime MHA? Anyone?

I def think a lot of the desire with Toriko by Shueisha was wanting to recreate what One Piece did and capture that same audience Dragon Ball did. The issue is that, well, Dragon Ball was over for more than 12 years at that point verses One Piece having just two, and the audience of manga had shifted a lot in that time. It's pretty telling IMO that far more battle manga seem to use Naruto and Bleach as inspirations over OP.
Rain, your bias is showing again.
Seriously, do better.
 

Rica_Patin

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The big 3 is a western term. The japanese refer to them as the main 3 pillars of the 2000's. Toriko was never a forced replacement for Bleach. Pillars come and go.
Bleach took HxH's place around the mid 2000's because hiatus makes the series less relevant to the magazine. Toriko took Bleach's place because Bleach sales were declining, but toriko was rising.

There were pillars before the "big 3" and there will be more pillars as series come and go.

Which successful battle manga are you two talking about though? The only battle manga that were hugely influenced by naruto are Mha and black clover, also hugely influenced by One Piece. I don't see how Naruto is more influential to battle manga than One Piece. I do see Bleach having a lot of influence though, I'll give you that.
There were also pillars during the 00's that weren't Bleach as well.
I really hate the term big 3 the way westerners use it. It shows a very narrow understanding of Jump history.
Regardless, I've argued about this too many times and don't want to do it again.
 
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Koni

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The big 3 is a western term. The japanese refer to them as the main 3 pillars of the 2000's. Toriko was never a forced replacement for Bleach. Pillars come and go.
Bleach took HxH's place around the mid 2000's because hiatus makes the series less relevant to the magazine. Toriko took Bleach's place because Bleach sales were declining, but toriko was rising.

There were pillars before the "big 3" and there will be more pillars as series come and go.

Which successful battle manga are you two talking about though? The only battle manga that were hugely influenced by naruto are Mha and black clover, also hugely influenced by One Piece. I don't see how Naruto is more influential to battle manga than One Piece. I do see Bleach having a lot of influence though, I'll give you that.
There were also pillars during the 00's that weren't Bleach as well.
I really hate the term big 3 the way westerners use it. It shows a very narrow understanding of Jump history.
Regardless, I've argued about this too me times and don't want to do it again.
You're both right, my apologies. I was mainly using quotes because I knew it was just a Western term, but now that I think about it, I should've rather said that Jump tried to promote Toriko alongside their two biggest then-currently-running sellers Naruto and One Piece.
 

Reading Somethin'

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Moving on, how does JK's current sales compare to something like pre-anime TPN and pre-anime MHA? Anyone?


500k+ in a year, so Jjk is a below by 100-200k by volume, I think there was more info of neverland's anime at the time, if that changes anything. Don't know about mha.
 

NeeNeen

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Shoseki

#1 Kimetsu no Yaiba 19
#2 Dr. Stone 14
#3 Act-age 10
#26 Yuragi-sou no Yuuna-san 20
#40 Mission: Yozakura Family 1
#51 Mitama Secureity 1
#60 Kamio Yui wa Kami wo Yui 4
For comparison:
Double Taisei Day 1: 150
Beast Children Day 1: 161
Tokyo Shinobi Squad Day 1: 86
To add to it, Kamio was at #67 (surprising that it's higher now) and Saiyuki at #150
Samurai 8 V1 Day 1: 30
Samurai 8 V2 Day 2: 40
Chainsaw Man: 21 (note this is before the Great Wall of Kimetsu Backlogs showed up)
Another point of comparison for the last time Jump released comedy/gag manga together, David was 66th, I'm From Japan 110th.
Act-Age's Vol 1 Shoseki numbers
Day 1: 30
Day 2: 46

So, Day 1 Shoseki numbers:

Act-Age: 30
I'm From Japan: 110
David: 66
Chainsaw Man: 21
Ne0lation: 140
Hell Warden Higuma: 78
The Last Saiyuki: 150
Yui Kamio: 67
Samurai 8 V1: 30
Samurai 8 V2: 40
Double Taisei: 150
Beast Children: 161
Tokyo Shinobi Squad: 86
Mission: Yozakura Family: 40
Mitama Secureity: 51


And the other days:

So, for reference, the first three days for all the first volumes of the 2019 series:

  • Chainsaw Man: 21, 18, 23
  • Ne0lation: 140, 227, 286
  • Hell Warden Higuma: 78, 112, 139
  • The Last Saiyuki: 150, 300, NA
  • Yui Kamio Lets Loose: 67, 113, 305
  • Samurai 8: 30/40, 43/49, 51/58
  • Double Taisei: 150, 450, NA
  • Beast Children: 161, 485, NA
  • Tokyo Shinobi Squad: 86, 146,
  • Mission: Yozakura Family: 40, 60, ???
  • Mitama Secureity: 51, 96, ???
For a reminder, Yozakura and Mitama debuted after Kimetsu's backlog monster emerged.

Anyone wanna do predictions on the Vol 1 sales for the five uncertains?
Sure, why not.

M+ views:
Mashle (95k) > Undead x Unluck (70k) > Gardian of the Witch (57k) > Samurai 8 (52k) > Zipman (39k) > Yozakura (33k) > Agravity Boys (23k) >> Mitama (8k)

The newer series haven't stabilized yet, so we'll have to make some adjustments. Mashle has 3 chapters out and the system counts 4 (or 5, we'll see that on Sunday), which means it will be rising for another week before it starts losing older views. UxU has 4 chapters already, and GarW has 2 more to go.

The biggest problem though is that we need to account for the fact that the first chapter usually does better than the others. The size of the drop is very variable (Mitama had 10k in the first week and 5k in the second, Yozakura started with 25k and stayed there for months), so it'll be more accurate to take the views from the latest chapter and multiply by 4. Mashle had 75k after 2 chapters and 95k now, so let's assume 20k for the average chapter. UxU went from 63k last week to 70k today, so 7k/week. GarW had 46k after the first chapter and 57k now (which means it's dropping hard), so I'll take 6k for the next chapters.

Mashle (80k) > Samurai 8 (52k) > Zipman (40k) > Yozakura (33k) > Undead x Unluck (28k) > Gardian of the Witch (24k) > Agravity Boys (23k) >> Mitama (8k)


Looking at the rankings above, we can make a rough guess about the day 1 positions:

Mashle (~25) > Samurai 8 (30) > Zipman (~35) > Yozakura (40) > Undead x Unluck (~42) > Gardian of the Witch (~44) > Agravity Boys (~45) >> Mitama (51)


Then, looking at the chart, take a shot at the week 1 sales:

I mean, this chart says it all:

Estimates:

Yozakura sold 11,330.
Miitama sold 4,953.

Mashle (~20k) > Samurai 8 (18k) > Zipman (~15k) > Yozakura (11k) > Undead x Unluck (~10k) > Gardian of the Witch (~9k) > Agravity Boys (~8k) >> Mitama (5k)

Obviously, these are approaches of estimates of guesstimates. But I'm curious to see if I got the general trends right, at least.


TL;DR version

My predictions on the Vol 1 sales:

Mashle (~20k)
Zipman (~15k)
Undead x Unluck (~10k)
Gardian of the Witch (~9k)
Agravity Boys (~8k)
 
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Minsel

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My predictions on the Vol 1 sales:

Mashle (~20k)
Zipman (~15k)
Undead x Unluck (~10k)
Gardian of the Witch (~9k)
Agravity Boys (~8k)
maybe also add some jump plus titles?
 
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