MHA has already reached its peak; it can't go much higher. TPN can definitely keep growing and might have a higher ceiling. Let's see how volume 7 debuts in January before making any calls, though.
I'm not entirely sure that is a fair comparison. I'm of two minds on this issue. One I sincerely doubt that we'll ever see a success on the level of Naruto, Bleach, or One Piece regardless of writing quality or presentation as I believe a large part of their success is due to a combination of factors involving timing and the advent of the internet.
Secondly, if we're using the Marineford Arc as an example, One Piece took 550 chapters to reach the Marineford Arc. That is 550 chapters of world building and character moments leading up to that point. In my mind comparing a 164 chapter manga to a 889 chapter behemoth like One Piece is kinda churlish.
It just seems like MHA's storytelling quality seems to be a separate issue to whether or not it can achieve similar results to the "Big 3" in their prime.
I agree with both of your posts, I remember around 7 years (IIRC) back when One Piece had all that promotion about Strong World you could clearly see a HUGE push by Shueisha's marketing team, IIRC the series got an enormous boost (even the first volume of ONE PIECE and a couple other volumes got into Oricon's Top 100 sellers after 10 years of being published! all thanks to that marketing) and I also think that the epic scope of the Marineford arc probably brought old fans back again..
TM2 wrote:
we'll ever see a success on the level of Naruto, Bleach, or One Piece regardless of writing quality or presentation as I believe a large part of their success is due to a combination of factors involving timing and the advent of the internet.
But then again I'm sure back when Dragon Ball was being published people tought there couldn't possibly be a new manga that could reach those sales and yet some years later Slam Dunk broke the record for the highest selling volume of a manga sold, then that record was in turn broken by ONE PIECE.
I'm not saying a manga will come that will break ONE PIECE records, it probably won't happen, and for example Dragon Ball is still the most popular manga/anime property worldwide (tied probably with Saint Seiya, Pokemon, Captain Tsubasa and Sailor Moon in popularity.. Yet still I guess Dragon Ball is the one that sells the most out of these properties).
Think about it, chances are Dragon Ball got this popularity worldwide because it also had a great timing, its anime adaptation started around the time non-asian countries started opening to anime series to be broadcasted worldwide, and thus channels bought Dragon Ball to be broadcasted.
So Dragon Ball's popularity outside of Japan IMO was due to it's timing coinciding with non-asian countries opening to broadcasting anime on their channels.
As TM2 suggests One Piece, Naruto, Bleach, the big 3 too had the timing to coincide with the internet's growth, and so they grew huge fanbases.
As for new manga/anime that could beat One Piece's records or even reach Naruto popularity levels??
I don't think it will happen, there are 2 factors I mainly think it can't happen:
-New animes are done in seasons, we won't have any more long running anime like we used to for popular shonen.
-The birthrates in Japan, simply put the audience for shonen series is 'disappearing'
Also I think it's pretty clear Black Clover isn't liked that much, I mean it sells very good but even its fanbase knows it just a mash of cliche after cliche.. I remember LOTS of people really liked Naruto back when it started in 2002, and it just grew bigger and bigger, and then with time as it happens with lots of properties it also got popular to hate the show, but it still had more fans than detractors I think.
Also I read a comment about how both Boku no hero academy and Black clover had gotten a game announced..
Naruto got 4 games back when it started.
And got a PS2 game announcement a year later
And a movie adaptation in 2004 (a little more than a year later after its premiere in October 2002)
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Let's compare the series sales
Naruto had sold around 60million volumes by its 32nd volume
(Interesting to note that BLEACH had sold 30 million volumes with only 21 volumes), but and finished selling 90 million with 74 volumes but that's counting worldwide sales so BLEACH volume sales really did decline a lot, I remeber back when Soul Society arc/Hueco mundo arc first volumes it used to sell 1M+ per volume..
Also I couldn't find the news on ANN but according to my memory
(and this)
Naruto had sold around 12 million copies by the time the 13rd volume had been shipped in Japan
"Masashi Kishimoto made his debut in Weekly Shonen Jump in 1999 with
Naruto,
Naruto became a big hit with both boys and girls. Kishimoto added a ... To date,
with the release of all 13 volumes of the graphic novel, this title has sold 12 million copies."
I remember Volume 13 when released back in 2001ish? Had the 12million copies sold in the obi (IIRC that's the name of the thing tankobons have, right?)
My hero's 13th volume also had an announcement that the series had sold aroun 10m copies (counting spinoffs like Vigilante, and novels..)
So BNHA sold a little less than Naruto did by its 13 volume but Naruto had no spinoff and probably no novels, and also hadn't had an anime adaptation yet (Naruto's anime adaptation was done in October 2002, around the time the 14th volume was released.
Black Clover just revelead it had like 4.8 million copies in print by its 14th volume.
So, that's more than half what Naruto had by its 13th volume..
I don't know if there will be another WSJ manga that will attain ONE PIECE/BLEACH/NARUTO levels of popularity but Black Clover just isn't selling well enough.. Had D-Gray Man continued or Hunter x Hunter had a regular weekly serialization they would have been strong contenders to be as huge as these mangas, but alas both authors had sickness..
And yeah people probably forgot it but there was a time when D-Gray Man while not neccesarily reaching Big3 status outside of Japan was posisionated to overtake or at least be on the same levels of BLEACH and perhaps even Naruto in terms of sales..
You can see the jump in sales
2006 D-Gray Man with 7 volumes already selling 4 million copies
2007 D-Gray Man with only 10 volumes reaching the 8m volume mark
Although D-Gray Man already had an anime promoting its manga by the 7th volume, probably because the mangaka had to rest sometimes and the volumes were released sometimes like 5 months after the last volume (most weekly manga get volumes every 2.5 months)