You're ignoring the factor of how Biden's first year or so in office will play into it. Midterm elections are largely a referendum on the current administration. Even if Senate Republicans get blame for blocking every piece of legislation put forth, people will still vote Republican if Biden is seen as ineffective. And let's be honest, many people will see that regardless of what he does.
That depends on the pitch tho. I think it is a good pitch to say "I would like to do some popular policies, but I need the senate/a bigger senate majority for that".
Usually, like in the first Obama term, we saw the midterms slip because obama did things people did not like. If Biden's first term focuses on getting some popular moderate things done (Covid relief, minor healthcare improvements, at least minor tax relief) that will not be unpopular, coupled with his likely robust foreign policy.
It also cannot be ignored what happens with the Republican party until then. It is definitely possible that Trump gives them a huge fuck off once he is out of office that could make quite lots of the loonies not vote at all. Right now, he is playing nice because he probably still thinks he can twist out of this, but once he is out of the white house, a lot of his fans are done with the GOP.
It also means two more years of demographics change in GOP keystates like Georgia. And while it also means 2 more years of voter suppression, I think the demographic change is the stronger one.
That depends on the pitch tho. I think it is a good pitch to say "I would like to do some popular policies, but I need the senate/a bigger senate majority for that".
Usually, like in the first Obama term, we saw the midterms slip because obama did things people did not like. If Biden's first term focuses on getting some popular moderate things done (Covid relief, minor healthcare improvements, at least minor tax relief) that will not be unpopular, coupled with his likely robust foreign policy.
It also cannot be ignored what happens with the Republican party until then. It is definitely possible that Trump gives them a huge fuck off once he is out of office that could make quite lots of the loonies not vote at all. Right now, he is playing nice because he probably still thinks he can twist out of this, but once he is out of the white house, a lot of his fans are done with the GOP.
It also means two more years of demographics change in GOP keystates like Georgia. And while it also means 2 more years of voter suppression, I think the demographic change is the stronger one.
Demographic changes don't matter if there is no impetus to vote. And there will be even less of that among those demographics if Biden obsesses over "moderate" changes that have common ground. How many of those things even exist any longer?
Republicans and democrats only ever agree on, as far as I remember, tax cuts, military budget increases and spying on people. basically, moderate positions are actively bad for everyone... Moderate positions don't seem to have jack shit to do with stuff people want or need.
Well, it generally isn't good for your own odds to make the case that elections are literally fraudulent. So it's basically a battle between biden not really giving anyone a reason to vote and trump telling his base their vote is pointless.
It kind of is if it inspires your base or your party's base to be more active in voting and to be more... menacing and "watchful."
Thing is though, Loeffler and her republican buddy should be losing considerably, given their history from just this year. Plus, Dems winning GA means stuff like stimulus are more likely to be passed, so there's no reason why the Dems shouldn't win. I think a lot of it depends on Biden and Trump though, and people angry at Trump's loss might be inspired to support the GA REps, esp to stick it to the liberals.
Biden had a message, and a pretty strong one: Unity. And that message was powerful independent from Trump. That is what net him the primary, it is what net him the presidency.
His message sucked, he was just lucky enough that Trump's shittiness made people realize Biden was better, and on top of Trump's mishandling of covid, even Clinton could have won this one, maybe. His plan could have cost him the election had the further left like Stacey Abrams didn't convince and help people vote.
What got him the primary was people thinking being moderate is better, and the division amongst the Dems and the left, even among the Bernie and Warren camps. Then Biden somehow managed to get some of his primary opponents in his camp, like Yang and Harris, and they brought over most of their supporters as well.
Biden got liberals with his half-assed message. The rest just thought he was better than Trump, especially when he could be pushed left. That helped him win the election.
Tax cuts haven't stimulated the economy... They stimulate the stock market but the economy's growth before the pandemic was pretty similar to obama's second term, if not exactly the same. Obama even made bush tax cuts permanent back in the day and it didn't exactly skyrocket the economy either. Tax cuts simply aren't magic... In the long term, tax cuts have simply resulted in more deficit and less money going towards social services and education (compounded by the US having destroyed it's social services since the 80s, including all the education subsidies that allowed the previous generations to pay for their education as they studied).
Add to that, biden is very overtly against medicare for all, GND and UBI.
Demographic changes don't matter if there is no impetus to vote. And there will be even less of that among those demographics if Biden obsesses over "moderate" changes that have common ground. How many of those things even exist any longer?
If that does not matter, how did Obama, the most inspiring candidate 2008 in recent american history (certainly more exciting than bush 1, 2, clinton 1, 2) lose by more percentage points than clinton in Georgia 2008 and Biden won there?
You can't have it both, either Biden had messaging that actually worked in Georgia, or the demographic change is something that matters no matter which candidate goes there.
The truth is that 'exciting' is pretty much just as made up as 'likability'. All over the world, there are really many boring-but-effective high profile politicians. Gubernationally, the same is true in the US, and even as far as presidents go, it isn't exactly like the majority of the US presidents were super exciting people.
Some were flashy, certainly not most of them.
Republicans and democrats only ever agree on, as far as I remember, tax cuts, military budget increases and spying on people. basically, moderate positions are actively bad for everyone... Moderate positions don't seem to have jack shit to do with stuff people want or need.
Bidens tax raise is a popular moderate position.
So is Biden's healthcare plan or the Covid relief.
There are uneciting but popular steps to be done, like an infrastructure overhaul, reinstating some things trump has broken or his education plan.
No, his education plan is not free college. But it is free college for some and laxer repayment for most. That will be popular if he gets it done. There will be lefties saying it is not enough, but nonetheless it is something that the figureheads of the left will endorse and fight for, as it is a useful compromise.
You do not need to pack the courts and defund the police to make it clear to people that your moderate plan will still be a significant improvement for them, if you message that in a competent way.
His message sucked, he was just lucky enough that Trump's shittiness made people realize Biden was better, and on top of Trump's mishandling of covid, even Clinton could have won this one, maybe. His plan could have cost him the election had the further left like Stacey Abrams didn't convince and help people vote.
What got him the primary was people thinking being moderate is better, and the division amongst the Dems and the left, even among the Bernie and Warren camps. Then Biden somehow managed to get some of his primary opponents in his camp, like Yang and Harris, and they brought over most of their supporters as well.
Biden got liberals with his half-assed message. The rest just thought he was better than Trump, especially when he could be pushed left. That helped him win the election.
His messaging worked wonders, and it was taylored on trump so it makes no sense to say 'it just worked because trump'.
It also worked in the primary.
The 'somehow' here is misleading. Biden managed to make all the moderates fall in line with him. Sanders did not managa to make warren leave the race and endorse him?
Why? Because the biden campaign was really competent in networking and finding common ground and the sanders campaign ended up having bad blood with the warren campaign and others.
And after that? Sanders fell in line with biden, because biden, again, is a very effective networker who can actually do big tent policy.
If that does not matter, how did Obama, the most inspiring candidate 2008 in recent american history (certainly more exciting than bush 1, 2, clinton 1, 2) lose by more percentage points than clinton in Georgia 2008 and Biden won there?
You can't have it both, either Biden had messaging that actually worked in Georgia, or the demographic change is something that matters no matter which candidate goes there.
You're going to give more credit to Biden's campaign than Stacy Abrams and other activists registering 800k new voters in Georgia? Enough of those voters came out to swing the state, you can't give full credit to Biden as a candidate when the prospect of 4 more years of Trump was seen as an existential threat for so many groups of people. Biden benefits from Obama's legacy to a degree, the fact that there's an ongoing pandemic that Trump failed to address competently, the fact that he's not a woman (sad but true), and the fact that he's not a Clinton. Those are the reasons Biden won this election.
It's the latter more than the former IMO. And Biden has a tall task ahead of himself if he wants to keep another 2010 from happening to his presidency. I hope that won't be the case, but there's very little reason for me to be optimistic IMO.
You're going to give more credit to Biden's campaign than Stacy Abrams and other activists registering 800k new voters in Georgia? Enough of those voters came out to swing the state, you can't give full credit to Biden as a candidate when the prospect of 4 more years of Trump was seen as an existential threat for so many groups of people. Biden benefits from Obama's legacy to a degree, the fact that there's an ongoing pandemic that Trump failed to address competently, the fact that he's not a woman (sad but true), and the fact that he's not a Clinton. Those are the reasons Biden won this election.
It's the latter more than the former IMO. And Biden has a tall task ahead of himself if he wants to keep another 2010 from happening to his presidency. I hope that won't be the case, but there's very little reason for me to be optimistic IMO.
We were talking about demographic change making georgia winnable. Stacey Abrams said that herself in an interview that the demographic change is what's the difference between now and ten years ago.
Biden certainly has one of the hardest imaginable presidencies ahead of himself, more so if he does not have the Senate. But with Trump, it is not easy for republicans, too. It cannot be judged now what lasting effects Trump will have, but it is clear that it will not be beneficial for the GOP on the long run to have a base with a huge amount of conspiracy nuts that hate the established GOPs as much as they hate the democrats and just voted GOP due to Trump and other grifters.
Republicans supporting the lawsuits to steal the election is not exactly a move that is going to win them the few undecided voters america still has.
Tax cuts haven't stimulated the economy... They stimulate the stock market but the economy's growth before the pandemic was pretty similar to obama's second term, if not exactly the same. Obama even made bush tax cuts permanent back in the day and it didn't exactly skyrocket the economy either. Tax cuts simply aren't magic...
I didn't say tax cuts never work though. They can potentially help, but not always... and certainly not often.
It makes perfect sense. Medicare for all and obamacare are entirely different policies that work in entirely different ways that ultimately have little to nothing in common.
Tax cuts can help the economy grow, but economic growth can also mean a certain section benefits alone. That would mean the tax cuts results in widening the wage gap for the people......
Biden will have to issue tax rebates, or tax cuts for small businesses, that will have to happen. That will be a part of the covid relief directly or indirectly. This is politics at the end of the day, you will have to lose some to gain some...
eventually, healthcare reforms will pass, and the other things but to get something passed, he will have to provide tax cuts...
Bush did tax cuts way before Trump, and in both cases the tax cuts did nothing for the economy. In fact, companies have laid off people after paying them a $1,000 bonus.
Obama stimulated the US economy and made it boom again after Bush fucked it up, and while Trump didn't mess that up for the first few years, he did tremendous damage in his last year because of how he handled the pandemic.
I really wish you understood ANYTHING about politics or how US operates or what has actually happened, instead of making up stuff or believing fiction from your right-wing sources. It's embarrassing.
His messaging worked wonders, and it was taylored on trump so it makes no sense to say 'it just worked because trump'.
It also worked in the primary.
The 'somehow' here is misleading. Biden managed to make all the moderates fall in line with him. Sanders did not managa to make warren leave the race and endorse him?
Why? Because the biden campaign was really competent in networking and finding common ground and the sanders campaign ended up having bad blood with the warren campaign and others.
And after that? Sanders fell in line with biden, because biden, again, is a very effective networker who can actually do big tent policy.
Only among liberals, not among the left/further left. And if it was tailored on Trump, then how does it not make sense to say it worked because of Trump? Trump's disastrous term is why Biden did well, not because of his "message." The difference is that Biden was able to say the bare minimum of what a president should say, while Trump sowed discord for years. Had he switched his message, then Trump might have won.
How many centrists or anti-Trump republicans voted for Biden? Biden promised stuff, while moderates and liberals weren't fans of M4A or Bernie or Warren's views.
True, Bernie stans were pretty shitty, and they already did damage in 2016 as it is. Bernie fell in line with Biden though, primarily because of how bad Trump is. Had he known what Trump was capable of, in 2016, would he have backed Clinton quicker? Biden wasn't able to get as many left vote as he could have gotten.
Only among liberals, not among the left/further left. And if it was tailored on Trump, then how does it not make sense to say it worked because of Trump? Trump's disastrous term is why Biden did well, not because of his "message." The difference is that Biden was able to say the bare minimum of what a president should say, while Trump sowed discord for years. Had he switched his message, then Trump might have won.
How many centrists or anti-Trump republicans voted for Biden? Biden promised stuff, while moderates and liberals weren't fans of M4A or Bernie or Warren's views.
True, Bernie stans were pretty shitty, and they already did damage in 2016 as it is. Bernie fell in line with Biden though, primarily because of how bad Trump is. Had he known what Trump was capable of, in 2016, would he have backed Clinton quicker? Biden wasn't able to get as many left vote as he could have gotten.
No, because that assumes that Biden will not adjust himself. Biden did not do the bare minimum. As i said, Biden had very smart and capable campaign that knew exactly what to do.
Your assessment of Sanders is not correct, either. Sanders knew who Trump is in 2016. The reason he could not fall in line with clinton faster is because he wanted concessions from clinton (which he got, at some point). Only then was he ready to back her and since the two despised each other, his backing was not organic.
Biden made concessions to sanders much faster. Biden and Sanders also personally like each other, because Biden is a good networker who, unlike Clinton, always treated Sanders well.
That is Biden's power. Even his political opponents, lefties and republicans alike, know Biden as a fair dealmaker and a fair guy. Which is why it came much easier for many republicans to accept a Biden presidency and why there was not as much bad blood between the lefties and the biden camp this time.
If you look at the data, quite a significant amount of people who would otherwise have voted red voted Biden.
In 2016, of the registered dem/rep voters, the dem split was 89-9 and the rep split was 90-7.
So Trump swayed 9% of registered dems to vote for him, clinton only swayed 7% of registered republicans. (there are third voters, but still, it is clear that Trump swayed more people from the opposing camp than clinton).
In 2020, the dem split was 94/5 and the rep split was 94/6. That seems insignificant, but especially in close swingstates like georgia, the split was even wider than that and the trend got turned. In the close battleground states, these few percents mattered.
Biden had these relevant 2% more over clinton with white men and women alike nationally and even more in battlegrounds.
What was his campaign about? Unity, which is the bare minimum that any politician should advocate. He also went from attacking millennials and the left to trying to reach out to them.
Bernie didn't really know what Trump was about, otherwise he probably wouldn't have spent time trying to make concessions with Clinton.
Who said there's not as much bad blood between the left and the Biden camp? I've seen plenty of left refuse to vote for Biden or start criticizing him after he won. How many moderate/centrist Republicans voted for Biden?
Its a basic "follow the money" theme. Those who profit from healthcare the most, are the biggest reason for healthcare being unaffordable.
Health insurance profit margins around 5%. Big pharma and healthcare provider profit margins range from 20% to 40%.
Those who believe medicare for all reforming health insurance will cut healthcare costs fail to know basic science, money or logic. For the same reasons upgrading a PC's RAM won't make a difference if the performance bottleneck lies elsewhere.
Bush did tax cuts way before Trump, and in both cases the tax cuts did nothing for the economy. In fact, companies have laid off people after paying them a $1,000 bonus.
Obama stimulated the US economy and made it boom again after Bush fucked it up, and while Trump didn't mess that up for the first few years, he did tremendous damage in his last year because of how he handled the pandemic.
Bush era tax cuts were a golden age of trickle down economics aka tax cuts for the rich.
Obama's era was defined by the federal reserve expanding balance sheets to inject liquidity into banking and investment markets. Obama era "economic growth" was merely an expansion of the finance sector's balance sheet. Which some contend is not real economic growth.
