Two key players in the industry are especially well positioned to thrive under a second Trump term. GEO Group noted in its recent annual report that U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement contracts accounts for
43 percent of its revenues. CoreCivic reports that
30 percent of its revenue came from ICE contracts in its most recent annual report. These companies seem well aware that greater gains lie ahead. As GEO Group Executive Chairman George Zoley
said on an earnings call on November 7, “The GEO Group was built for this unique moment in our . . . country’s history and the opportunities that it will bring.”
One less obvious but still important benefit is that GEO Group’s and CoreCivic’s transportation subsidiaries are also likely to secure more contracts with the federal government if large-scale deportation efforts move forward. Generally speaking, deportation isn’t an immediate process — many people navigating the vast U.S. immigration infrastructure will need to be transported between facilities and to court hearings.GEO Group’s CEO acknowledged the potential of their transport services on the earnings call,
noting, “We believe we have the capabilities to expand the provision of these services to assist ICE in moving several hundreds of thousands of additional individuals if needed.”
Other aspects of the Trump administration’s proposed law enforcement agenda could similarly drive profits for private prison companies. When it comes to “law and order,” Trump’s campaign
platform declares that his administration will “increase penalties for assaults on law enforcement, put violent offenders and career criminals behind bars, and surge federal prosecutors and the National Guard into high-crime communities.” Currently, the Department of Justice can’t legally contract directly with for-profit firms to house people awaiting trial or convicted of crimes. But that is most probably about to change.